FANTASY INTELLIGENCE
Win the decision.
Not the headline.
This board separates player ability from expected production, role security, availability, opponent strength, expected game script, and validated play-caller usage. It is an intelligence layer for serious fantasy users, not a disguised list of last year's points.
Models: player-forecast-v41 / player-performance-v18 / team-strength-v39Context: coaching-context-v1 Data updated: October 9, 2026 at 8:29 PM EDTVerify live snapshot Verify release manifest Verify deployment
SCORE KEY
Current performance comes first
Current grade measures qualifying production recorded this season against position peers, with sample adjustment. It is not complete football ability. Without qualifying current evidence, a clearly labeled forecast estimate remains visible. Defensive assignments and individual blocking require additional evidence.
2026 SEASON DRAFT BOARD
Production, scarcity, and risk are separate
This is a redraft value board, not a player-quality leaderboard. Position order follows a participation-aware season median; every row exposes active-game scoring, role-qualified fantasy-active games, the forecast-error adjustment, and current health separately.
Half PPR1QB12 teamsRedraftfantasy-season-draft-v1.4 | player quality impact: zero | market cost: withheld
Reconciling the live league injury board. Frozen production remains visible while current availability loads.
Draft cost is separate from projected production. Current matching ADP is unavailable or still loading; missing prices remain withheld. Data from Fantasy Football Calculator, checked daily. Mock-draft cost is not a guaranteed draft round or proof of a bargain. No grades or projections change.
Workload accounting: Carries and targets below are historical rates, not joint team allocations. Team workload and injury-scenario audit is shadow-only; missing routes and unassigned work are not invented.
Connected workload testing: shadow, not used in these ranks
Team plays, dropbacks, targets, designed carries and QB scrambles now share one accounting model. The challenger covers 32 teams and 488 current fantasy players. Missing routes and unsupported injury beneficiaries remain unassigned.
Result: 1,632 historical team-games tested. The challenger did not consistently beat the simpler recent-workload baseline. No public grades, fantasy points or picks change.
Timing limitation: This is a chronological replay of revised historical data, not proof of what each source published before kickoff. It does not validate causal coaching or injury effects.
Targets mean absolute error per evaluated player-game, lower is better:
- 2023: recent-workload baseline 1.30, connected challenger 1.31.
- 2024: recent-workload baseline 1.32, connected challenger 1.34.
- 2025: recent-workload baseline 1.29, connected challenger 1.30.
14 players survive every top 15
The board was rebuilt four times rather than assuming RB30 and WR42 are uniquely correct.
WR-heavy: RB28 / WR48; top 15 has 9 RB, 5 WR, 1 QB, 0 TE; 15/15 overlap with balanced.
Balanced: RB30 / WR42; top 15 has 9 RB, 5 WR, 1 QB, 0 TE; 15/15 overlap with balanced.
RB-heavy: RB36 / WR36; top 15 has 9 RB, 4 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE; 14/15 overlap with balanced.
Flex-adjusted: RB34 / WR37; top 15 has 9 RB, 4 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE; 14/15 overlap with balanced.
-46.0 points is position-and-scoring-wide
The same raw half-PPR correction applies to every comparable QB. It came from 251 walk-forward player-seasons across 2022-2023-2024-2025, not a player-specific injury opinion.
Season MAE: 99.4 rate-only; 78.5 after participation; 67.9 in the pooled median-adjusted diagnostic.
The final comparison reuses the pooled walk-forward residual cohort and is not a separate nested holdout.Current availability source: NFL.com official team rosters, snapshot Oct 9, 2026, 8:29 PM EDT.
Cross-position top 100
VORP changes with league size and superflex. P20, median, and P80 are historical planning scenarios, not guaranteed confidence intervals. VONA remains withheld: average draft prices do not tell us who is available in your live draft.
Jahmyr Gibbs Detroit Lions | RB1 | weekly RB1 | TIER 1
HealthyHistorical usage baselineNeutral schedule #10NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 14.4 carries/g | 5.1 targets/g | Primary rushing TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Historical usage baseline. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Drew Petzing. Coordinator: Drew Petzing.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 20.3 active-game PPG x 16.5 expected fantasy-active games = 335.5 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 321.0 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 19.8 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 18.4 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 84.8 OVR, position rank #2, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact.
321.0SEASON MEDIAN20.3 active-game PPG | 266-355 P20-P80
+194.0VORPvs RB30 | draft value 190.6
16.5EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Bijan Robinson Atlanta Falcons | RB2 | weekly RB2 | TIER 1
HealthyFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedNeutral schedule #9NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 17.1 carries/g | 5.6 targets/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Tommy Rees. Coordinator: Tommy Rees.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 19.2 active-game PPG x 16.5 expected fantasy-active games = 317.3 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 302.9 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 22.9 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 22.1 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 85.6 OVR, position rank #1, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast.
302.9SEASON MEDIAN19.2 active-game PPG | 249-336 P20-P80
+175.9VORPvs RB30 | draft value 172.6
16.5EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts | RB3 | weekly RB3 | TIER 2
HealthyFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedDifficult schedule #25CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 19.7 carries/g | 3.0 targets/g | Primary rushing TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Shane Steichen. Coordinator: Jim Bob Cooter.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 19.2 active-game PPG x 15.9 expected fantasy-active games = 304.9 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 290.5 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 22.2 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 14 games, 23.9 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 79.8 OVR, position rank #6, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
290.5SEASON MEDIAN19.2 active-game PPG | 238-324 P20-P80
+163.5VORPvs RB30 | draft value 160.3
15.9EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Puka Nacua Los Angeles Rams | WR1 | weekly WR1 | TIER 2
HealthyFirst-unit receiving roleFavorable schedule #8CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 10.2 targets/g | 7.8 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Sean McVay. Coordinator: Nate Scheelhaase.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 18.9 active-game PPG x 14.9 expected fantasy-active games = 281.5 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 263.3 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 16 games, 10.4 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 11 games, 9.6 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 83.5 OVR, position rank #4, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
263.3SEASON MEDIAN18.9 active-game PPG | 216-302 P20-P80
+154.7VORPvs WR42 | draft value 152.0
14.9EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Ja'Marr Chase Cincinnati Bengals | WR2 | weekly WR2 | TIER 2
HealthyFirst-unit receiving roleNeutral schedule #14CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 11.2 targets/g | 7.7 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Zac Taylor. Coordinator: Dan Pitcher.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 17.2 active-game PPG x 16.0 expected fantasy-active games = 275.9 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 257.6 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 16 games, 11.6 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 10.3 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 84.5 OVR, position rank #2, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
257.6SEASON MEDIAN17.2 active-game PPG | 211-296 P20-P80
+149.0VORPvs WR42 | draft value 146.4
16.0EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Derrick Henry Baltimore Ravens | RB4 | weekly RB5 | TIER 2
HealthyFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedFavorable schedule #7NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 18.3 carries/g | 1.3 targets/g | Primary rushing TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Declan Doyle. Coordinator: Declan Doyle.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 17.6 active-game PPG x 16.5 expected fantasy-active games = 291.0 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 276.5 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 19.3 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 20.4 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 84.4 OVR, position rank #3, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast.
276.5SEASON MEDIAN17.6 active-game PPG | 223-310 P20-P80
+149.5VORPvs RB30 | draft value 146.2
16.5EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Seattle Seahawks | WR3 | weekly WR3 | TIER 2
HealthyFirst-unit receiving roleFavorable schedule #4NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 9.2 targets/g | 6.7 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Brian Fleury. Coordinator: Brian Fleury.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 16.4 active-game PPG x 16.5 expected fantasy-active games = 270.2 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 251.9 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 9.6 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 8.1 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 85.5 OVR, position rank #1, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast.
251.9SEASON MEDIAN16.4 active-game PPG | 205-290 P20-P80
+143.3VORPvs WR42 | draft value 140.7
16.5EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Amon-Ra St. Brown Detroit Lions | WR4 | weekly WR4 | TIER 2
HealthyEstablished receiving rotationNeutral schedule #9NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 9.6 targets/g | 6.9 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Established receiving rotation. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Drew Petzing. Coordinator: Drew Petzing.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 16.2 active-game PPG x 16.5 expected fantasy-active games = 266.7 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 248.4 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 10.1 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 8.3 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 83.9 OVR, position rank #3, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact.
248.4SEASON MEDIAN16.2 active-game PPG | 200-287 P20-P80
+139.8VORPvs WR42 | draft value 137.1
16.5EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
James Cook III Buffalo Bills | RB5 | weekly RB6 | TIER 2
HealthyHistorical usage baselineDifficult schedule #32CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 16.8 carries/g | 2.4 targets/g | Primary rushing TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Historical usage baseline. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Joe Brady. Coordinator: Pete Carmichael Jr..
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 17.2 active-game PPG x 16.3 expected fantasy-active games = 279.9 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 265.5 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 20.5 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 16 games, 15.3 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 82.4 OVR, position rank #4, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
265.5SEASON MEDIAN17.2 active-game PPG | 211-299 P20-P80
+138.5VORPvs RB30 | draft value 135.2
16.3EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers | RB6 | weekly RB4 | TIER 3
HealthyFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedNeutral schedule #14CALLER CONTINUITYMANAGED LOAD -6%ELEVATED PARTICIPATION RISKRECEIPT REVIEW
Historical baseline, not projected: 17.4 carries/g | 7.2 targets/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Kyle Shanahan. Coordinator: Klay Kubiak.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 19.1 active-game PPG x 14.2 expected fantasy-active games = 271.6 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 257.1 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 25.9 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 4 games, 17.3 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 77.3 OVR, position rank #8, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
Workload: San Francisco's stated plan covers the 2026 workload, so the season board uses a conservative six-percent opportunity reduction while Week 1 retains the more cautious 90-percent game baseline.
Top-12 projection includes a verified managed-workload reduction; show the workload receipt.
257.1SEASON MEDIAN19.1 active-game PPG | 202-291 P20-P80
+130.1VORPvs RB30 | draft value 126.7
14.2EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Kyren Williams Los Angeles Rams | RB7 | weekly RB7 | TIER 3
HealthyFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedNeutral schedule #11CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 16.4 carries/g | 2.8 targets/g | Primary rushing TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Sean McVay. Coordinator: Nate Scheelhaase.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 15.5 active-game PPG x 16.3 expected fantasy-active games = 252.4 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 237.9 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 18.2 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 16 games, 22.3 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 80.0 OVR, position rank #5, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
237.9SEASON MEDIAN15.5 active-game PPG | 186-271 P20-P80
+110.9VORPvs RB30 | draft value 107.7
16.3EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Saquon Barkley Philadelphia Eagles | RB8 | weekly RB8 | TIER 4
HealthyHistorical usage baselineFavorable schedule #1NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 18.6 carries/g | 3.0 targets/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Historical usage baseline. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Sean Mannion. Coordinator: Sean Mannion.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 15.4 active-game PPG x 15.8 expected fantasy-active games = 243.6 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 229.1 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 16 games, 20.6 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 16 games, 24.3 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 76.3 OVR, position rank #11, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast.
229.1SEASON MEDIAN15.4 active-game PPG | 173-263 P20-P80
+102.1VORPvs RB30 | draft value 98.6
15.8EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Chase Brown Cincinnati Bengals | RB9 | weekly RB9 | TIER 4
HealthyFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedNeutral schedule #13CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 13.8 carries/g | 4.9 targets/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Zac Taylor. Coordinator: Dan Pitcher.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 14.7 active-game PPG x 16.3 expected fantasy-active games = 239.8 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 225.3 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 18.8 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 16 games, 18.4 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 73.7 OVR, position rank #21, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
225.3SEASON MEDIAN14.7 active-game PPG | 173-258 P20-P80
+98.3VORPvs RB30 | draft value 95.1
16.3EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills | QB1 | weekly QB1 | TIER 4
HealthyModeled starter assignmentDifficult schedule #32CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 29.1 pass att/g | 6.8 rush/g | 0.80 rush TD/gADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Modeled starter assignment. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Joe Brady. Coordinator: Pete Carmichael Jr..
Projection math: 23.8 active-game PPG x 15.8 expected fantasy-active games = 376.3 participation-baseline points; -46.0 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 330.4 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 16 games, 28.8 pass attempts per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 16 games, 30.2 pass attempts per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 89.2 OVR, position rank #3, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
330.4SEASON MEDIAN23.8 active-game PPG | 238-398 P20-P80
+99.2VORPvs QB12 | draft value 93.9
15.8EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
George Pickens Dallas Cowboys | WR5 | weekly WR8 | TIER 4
HealthyEstablished receiving rotationNeutral schedule #12CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 7.9 targets/g | 5.1 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Established receiving rotation. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Brian Schottenheimer. Coordinator: Klayton Adams.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 13.5 active-game PPG x 15.9 expected fantasy-active games = 215.0 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 196.8 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 8.1 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 14 games, 7.4 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 80.3 OVR, position rank #11, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
196.8SEASON MEDIAN13.5 active-game PPG | 149-235 P20-P80
+88.2VORPvs WR42 | draft value 85.5
15.9EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Trey McBride Arizona Cardinals | TE1 | weekly TE1 | TIER 4
HealthyFirst-unit receiving roleNeutral schedule #20NEW CALLERRECEIPT REVIEW
Historical baseline, not projected: 9.7 targets/g | 7.3 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Mike LaFleur. Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 13.1 active-game PPG x 16.3 expected fantasy-active games = 213.9 participation-baseline points; -12.8 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 201.1 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 9.9 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 16 games, 9.2 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 77.6 OVR, position rank #12, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active.
Validated play-caller usage materially changes the projection; show the coaching receipt.
201.1SEASON MEDIAN13.1 active-game PPG | 170-227 P20-P80
+82.1VORPvs TE12 | draft value 80.4
16.3EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Davante Adams Los Angeles Rams | WR6 | weekly WR6 | TIER 4
HealthyFirst-unit receiving roleFavorable schedule #8CALLER CONTINUITYELEVATED PARTICIPATION RISK
Historical baseline, not projected: 8.6 targets/g | 4.7 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Sean McVay. Coordinator: Nate Scheelhaase.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 14.2 active-game PPG x 14.4 expected fantasy-active games = 204.7 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 186.5 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 14 games, 8.1 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 14 games, 10.1 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 78.8 OVR, position rank #15, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
186.5SEASON MEDIAN14.2 active-game PPG | 138-225 P20-P80
+77.9VORPvs WR42 | draft value 75.2
14.4EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Zay Flowers Baltimore Ravens | WR7 | weekly WR14 | DEPTH
QuestionableFirst-unit receiving roleNeutral schedule #15NEW CALLERRECEIPT REVIEW
Historical baseline, not projected: 6.9 targets/g | 4.9 catches/g | Shared / secondary TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Declan Doyle. Coordinator: Declan Doyle.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 11.9 active-game PPG x 16.5 expected fantasy-active games = 197.1 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 178.8 season median.
Current status versus participation history: A current availability restriction is recorded separately from the prior-only participation estimate.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 6.9 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 6.8 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 81.7 OVR, position rank #7, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast.
Top-12 projection carries unresolved availability; do not publish without a visible monitor label.
178.8SEASON MEDIAN11.9 active-game PPG | 118-221 P20-P80
+70.2VORPvs WR42 | draft value 66.6
16.5EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMESQuestionable | role-qualified history
Ashton Jeanty Las Vegas Raiders | RB10 | weekly RB14 | DEPTH
HealthyFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedDifficult schedule #29NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 15.6 carries/g | 4.3 targets/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Klint Kubiak. Coordinator: Andrew Janocko.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 12.8 active-game PPG x 16.4 expected fantasy-active games = 209.6 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 195.1 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 19.9 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 65.9 OVR, position rank #44, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact.
195.1SEASON MEDIAN12.8 active-game PPG | 138-230 P20-P80
+68.1VORPvs RB30 | draft value 64.6
16.4EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Javonte Williams Dallas Cowboys | RB11 | weekly RB11 | DEPTH
HealthyHistorical usage baselineNeutral schedule #17CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 13.8 carries/g | 3.4 targets/g | Primary rushing TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Historical usage baseline. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Brian Schottenheimer. Coordinator: Klayton Adams.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 13.0 active-game PPG x 16.0 expected fantasy-active games = 208.6 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 194.1 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 16 games, 18.9 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 12.3 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 72.7 OVR, position rank #28, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
194.1SEASON MEDIAN13.0 active-game PPG | 140-228 P20-P80
+67.1VORPvs RB30 | draft value 63.8
16.0EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Drake London Atlanta Falcons | WR8 | weekly WR7 | DEPTH
HealthyFirst-unit receiving roleNeutral schedule #10NEW CALLERELEVATED PARTICIPATION RISK
Historical baseline, not projected: 9.3 targets/g | 5.7 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Tommy Rees. Coordinator: Tommy Rees.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 13.8 active-game PPG x 14.0 expected fantasy-active games = 193.5 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 175.2 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 12 games, 9.3 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 9.3 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 81.8 OVR, position rank #6, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast.
175.2SEASON MEDIAN13.8 active-game PPG | 125-215 P20-P80
+66.6VORPvs WR42 | draft value 63.7
14.0EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Tee Higgins Cincinnati Bengals | WR10 | weekly WR11 | DEPTH
HealthyFirst-unit receiving roleNeutral schedule #14CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 7.2 targets/g | 4.5 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit receiving role. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Zac Taylor. Coordinator: Dan Pitcher.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 13.2 active-game PPG x 14.6 expected fantasy-active games = 192.9 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 174.7 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 15 games, 6.5 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 12 games, 9.1 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 82.8 OVR, position rank #5, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
174.7SEASON MEDIAN13.2 active-game PPG | 127-213 P20-P80
+66.1VORPvs WR42 | draft value 63.4
14.6EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Nico Collins Houston Texans | WR9 | weekly WR10 | DEPTH
HealthyEstablished receiving rotationFavorable schedule #5CALLER CONTINUITY
Historical baseline, not projected: 8.1 targets/g | 5.0 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Established receiving rotation. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Nick Caley. Coordinator: Nick Caley.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 13.2 active-game PPG x 14.6 expected fantasy-active games = 192.9 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 174.7 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 15 games, 8.0 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 12 games, 8.3 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 81.6 OVR, position rank #8, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
174.7SEASON MEDIAN13.2 active-game PPG | 125-214 P20-P80
+66.1VORPvs WR42 | draft value 63.3
14.6EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
D'Andre Swift Chicago Bears | RB12 | weekly RB13 | DEPTH
QuestionableFirst-unit backfield role; share unresolvedDifficult schedule #28CALLER CONTINUITYRECEIPT REVIEW
Historical baseline, not projected: 14.2 carries/g | 3.0 targets/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: First-unit backfield role; share unresolved. Role evidence: supported. Play caller: Ben Johnson. Coordinator: Press Taylor.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. Club role source
Projection math: 12.9 active-game PPG x 16.0 expected fantasy-active games = 206.2 participation-baseline points; -14.5 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 191.7 season median.
Current status versus participation history: A current availability restriction is recorded separately from the prior-only participation estimate.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:54 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 16 games, 16.9 carries plus targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 17 games, 17.9 carries plus targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 72.2 OVR, position rank #30, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast.
Top-12 projection carries unresolved availability; do not publish without a visible monitor label.
191.7SEASON MEDIAN12.9 active-game PPG | 125-229 P20-P80
+64.7VORPvs RB30 | draft value 60.5
16.0EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMESQuestionable | role-qualified history
Jameson Williams Detroit Lions | WR11 | weekly WR15 | DEPTH
HealthyEstablished receiving rotationNeutral schedule #9NEW CALLER
Historical baseline, not projected: 6.0 targets/g | 3.8 catches/g | Elevated TD historyADP withheld: no current, format-matched player receipt.Why this draft rank
Role: Established receiving rotation. Role evidence: provisional. Play caller: Drew Petzing. Coordinator: Drew Petzing.
Historical fantasy production already includes the observed workload; no second depth-slot penalty is applied. No complete current club chart confirms this role; historical usage is provisional.
Projection math: 11.8 active-game PPG x 16.1 expected fantasy-active games = 189.7 participation-baseline points; -18.2 walk-forward forecast-error adjustment = 171.5 season median.
Current status versus participation history: No current restriction is recorded. The participation estimate uses role-qualified history and is not a claim that the player is currently injured.
Current-status source: NFL.com official team rosters, checked Sep 16, 2026, 4:55 PM EDT. Source receipt.
History used: 2025: 17 games, 6.0 targets per game (included, 1.00x) | 2024: 15 games, 6.1 targets per game (included, 0.35x)
Medical probability withheld: Medical outcome probabilities are withheld. Historical stat rows cannot reliably separate injury, benching, role loss, retirement, and roster eligibility, so presenting those outcomes as injury odds would be false precision.
Quality reference: 80.3 OVR, position rank #12, with zero direct draft-value points.
Coaching: The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact.
171.5SEASON MEDIAN11.8 active-game PPG | 123-210 P20-P80
+62.9VORPvs WR42 | draft value 60.2
16.1EXPECTED FANTASY-ACTIVE GAMEShealthy now | role-qualified history
Season draft scoring and model receipt
Fantasy scoring: standard NFL yardage and touchdown scoring plus the selected reception value.
Replacement: The default 12-team 1QB half-PPR board uses QB12, RB30, WR42, and TE12. A published sensitivity receipt rebuilds the complete board under WR-heavy, balanced, RB-heavy, and dynamically flex-adjusted replacement assumptions.
Overall draft value: Participation-aware season median above the selected replacement player, minus 8% of downside distance and plus 3% of upside distance. Value over next available is withheld until draft state or attributable ADP exists.
Season median equation: activeGamePpg x expectedFantasyActiveGames = participationBaselinePoints; participationBaselinePoints + residualMedianAdjustment = projectedSeasonPoints.
Residual adjustment: The median forecast-error adjustment is estimated once per position and scoring format from pooled walk-forward 2022-2025 residuals, then applied consistently to comparable 2026 forecasts. It is not player-specific. The published adjusted-MAE comparison is a retrospective calibration diagnostic, not a separate nested holdout.
Availability source: NFL.com official team rosters, Oct 9, 2026, 8:29 PM EDT.
Projection snapshot: player-forecast-v41:2026-10-10T00:29:53.005648+00:00 | 54d4ae426b9e353d3a9db6de5e6ab82feebad7aa74189acf119985dc4715e56f. These frozen projection limitations describe the original forecast, before the separate live ADP layer.
- Displayed opportunity rates are historical baselines, not jointly allocated 2026 targets or carries. Team conservation and injury scenarios are shadow diagnostics with zero grade or fantasy-point impact.
- No licensed or otherwise permitted production ADP feed is loaded, so reach/value-versus-market claims are withheld.
- Current route participation, two-minute share, red-zone touches, and goal-line carries remain unavailable until verified point-in-time role observations arrive.
- Player-specific injury and games-played probabilities are withheld until point-in-time roster eligibility, official inactive history, and role continuity can be reconstructed without conflating injury with benching or retirement.
- Rookie and reserve projections are lower-confidence planning estimates and cannot outrank established starters silently; automatic review flags remain attached.
- The model forecasts standard NFL fantasy scoring and does not include bonuses, return scoring, IDP, or platform-specific quirks.
FANTASY DECISION LAB
Your format changes the answer
Current week projections, positional scarcity, and career runway become one adjustable board. Player OVR remains untouched; this is a downstream fantasy decision model.
Reconciling the live league injury board. Frozen projections stay visible while current availability loads. Loading the current prediction ledger.
Half PPR1QBRedraft12 teamsfantasy-decision-v1.10 + fantasy-matchup-context-v4 + fantasy-workload-context-v2 | Current week, 2026
CURRENT WEEK FANTASY RECEIPTSGame volume: -- / --Player snapshots: --0 active receiptsLatest accepted --Opponent strength and game script move volume. OC/play-caller and opposing DC changes currently move confidence and range, not central points.
Top 100 and position rankings
Overall order uses value over a format- and league-size-specific replacement player. Position rank always follows projected Current week points.
Current week start/sit intelligence
Every highlight compares the Current week position rank with the season active-game fantasy baseline. Specialists are excluded because no equivalent season baseline exists. "Temper" is not an automatic sit when the range is wide.
Start cases
Temper expectations
FANTASY-TRADE-V2
Compare up to three players per side
Current week package value responds to scoring, lineup, roster horizon, league size, availability, and value above replacement. Unequal packages receive no free player-count bonus.
Package A
VS
Package B
Select at least one player for both packages to calculate a comparison.
Format-adjusted value above a league-size replacement player, scaled so the strongest current player equals 100. Package ranges combine each selected player's published planning-range movement by root-sum-square. They are heuristic decision ranges, not calibrated probabilities. The comparison uses the frozen Week 1 projection board and current availability, not a rest-of-season market price. It does not know either manager's roster, standings, keeper cost, waiver pool, or league-specific trade market. A verdict describes the modeled player package only and is never an automatic accept or reject command.
Scoring contract and honest limits
Scoring: 1 point per 25 passing yards, 4 per passing TD, 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 per rushing/receiving TD, plus the selected reception value.
Replacement: League-size baseline: QB/TE/K/DST 1.0 per team, RB 2.5 per team, WR 3.5 per team; Superflex uses 2.0 QBs per team.
Freshness: Each game uses its latest accepted pre-kickoff receipt. Settled games retain their original receipt; unplayed games refresh from the public prediction ledger. Availability is reconciled against the current player-forecast-v41:2026-10-10T21:41:29.622975+00:00 roster snapshot and the live injury board. Newer supported status wins.
Archive: Open the hashed Week 1 fantasy archive . This historical board is retained unchanged; it is not the current week's recommendation.
Touchdown allocation: Open the rushing-touchdown validation receipt . The active rule improved pooled MAE and RMSE across 2,516 player-team seasons while reducing large mobile-QB misses.
- Expected touchdowns are inferred from the team score, projected player usage, and prior rushing-touchdown role; live touchdown props are not available.
- Opponent pass/run strength and projected game script already move the frozen player-volume inputs. Every row exposes the exact bounded matchup and script percentages used.
- Current OC, play caller, and opposing DC receipts are explicit. Only the play caller receives causal priority. The TE usage prior changes bounded fantasy opportunity after improving retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold; QB, RB, and WR caller effects remain context-only.
- When a receiving-yard projection exists without a reception projection, catches are visibly imputed from the declared position yards-per-catch fallback and confidence is reduced.
- Verified workload-management evidence can reduce downstream fantasy volume without changing player OVR; active or healthy status never guarantees a full role.
- A managed-workload receipt uses a bounded central prior and widens uncertainty. Released work remains unassigned until the backup split is verified.
- Current roster availability overrides an older frozen-game designation. Questionable or otherwise unresolved players are marked MONITOR without an invented medical discount; inactive and reserve-list players are excluded from active weekly value.
- Indoor and weather-protected games never wait for a forecast. Outdoor weather stays pending until a reliable kickoff forecast exists.
- Weekly start cases and risk checks compare position rank with the season active-game fantasy baseline. Real-life OVR rank and specialists without a comparable season baseline cannot manufacture a riser label.
- Replacement value scales with the selected league size and lineup format instead of assuming every league has 12 teams.
- Turnovers, bonuses, return scoring, IDP, and kicker distance buckets are not included.
- Keeper and dynasty modes use draft-year career runway, not an external market ranking or unverifiable age estimate.
- Planning ranges communicate decision uncertainty and are not calibrated probability intervals.
Next data upgrades: league import and settings through a platform adapter, attributable ADP/value history, play-level expected opportunity, and multi-season trade simulation.
PROJECTED BREAKOUTS
Players positioned to pop
This is the opportunity board, not another list of the NFL's best-known players. It looks for role access, depth-chart path, prospect evidence, efficiency, team style, and verified availability catalysts.
QB breakout radar
OPPORTUNITY / SCHEDULEWeak3rd-easiest · HIGH
#2Cam WardTennessee Titans · First-string quarterbackhigh transition · Brian Daboll calling playsWeak19th-easiest · HIGH
#3Aaron RodgersPittsburgh Steelers · First-string quarterbackhigh transition · Mike McCarthy calling playsWeak24th-easiest · HIGH
#4Malik WillisMiami Dolphins · First-string quarterbackhigh transition · Bobby Slowik calling playsWeak31st-easiest · HIGH
#5Quinn EwersJacksonville Jaguars · Reserve quarterbackLimited23rd-easiest · LOW
#6Stetson BennettLos Angeles Rams · Reserve quarterbackelevated transition · Sean McVay calling playsLimited8th-easiest · LOW
RB breakout radar
OPPORTUNITY / SCHEDULENeutral7th-easiest · HIGH
#2Blake CorumLos Angeles Rams · Shared backfield / primary reserveelevated transition · Sean McVay calling playsWeak11th-easiest · HIGH
#3Jaylen WrightMiami Dolphins · Shared backfield / primary reservehigh transition · Bobby Slowik calling playsWeak27th-easiest · HIGH
#4Omarion HamptonLos Angeles Chargers · First-unit backfield role; share unresolvedelevated transition · Mike McDaniel calling playsWeak31st-easiest · HIGH
#5Kyle MonangaiChicago Bears · Shared backfield / primary reserveelevated transition · Ben Johnson calling playsWeak25th-easiest · HIGH
#6Ashton JeantyLas Vegas Raiders · First-unit backfield role; share unresolvedhigh transition · Klint Kubiak calling playsWeak30th-easiest · HIGH
WR breakout radar
OPPORTUNITY / SCHEDULENeutral30th-easiest · HIGH
#2Tetairoa McMillanCarolina Panthers · First-unit receiving roleelevated transition · Brad Idzik calling playsNeutral28th-easiest · HIGH
#3Josh DownsIndianapolis Colts · First-unit receiving roleWeak25th-easiest · HIGH
#4Emeka EgbukaTampa Bay Buccaneers · First-unit receiving roleelevated transition · Zac Robinson calling playsWeak6th-easiest · HIGH
#5Xavier WorthyKansas City Chiefs · First-unit receiving roleelevated transition · Andy Reid calling playsWeak17th-easiest · HIGH
#6Jalen CokerCarolina Panthers · First-unit receiving roleelevated transition · Brad Idzik calling playsWeak28th-easiest · HIGH
TE breakout radar
OPPORTUNITY / SCHEDULEWeak4th-easiest · HIGH
#2Harold Fannin Jr.Cleveland Browns · First-unit receiving rolehigh transition · Todd Monken calling playsWeak7th-easiest · HIGH
#3Tyler WarrenIndianapolis Colts · First-unit receiving roleWeak25th-easiest · HIGH
#4Davis AllenLos Angeles Rams · First-unit receiving roleelevated transition · Sean McVay calling playsWeak8th-easiest · MEDIUM
#5Cade OttonTampa Bay Buccaneers · First-unit receiving roleelevated transition · Zac Robinson calling playsWeak6th-easiest · HIGH
#6Eli RaridonNew England Patriots · Receiving rotation; second on club chartWeak27th-easiest · MEDIUM
These are directional opportunity signals, not fake breakout probabilities. Exact percentages stay unpublished until walk-forward calibration supports them. Schedule is displayed as context and does not alter player OVR.
Open every breakout receiptLIVE ACQUISITION RADAR
Who the market is moving toward
This joins verified Sleeper add/drop activity to NFSMELL forecast, opportunity, schedule, and structured usage evidence. It is a directional acquisition signal, not ownership, a start/sit command, or a fabricated breakout probability.
Loading attributable market activity
NFSMELL is waiting for the verified Sleeper response; it will not substitute guessed popularity data.
Counts are adds and drops during the prior 24 hours, not roster percentages. ADP: withheld until an attributable platform or licensed feed is ingested. Player OVR and team ratings receive zero points from this board.
POINT-IN-TIME ROLE LAB
Role Velocity, then Discovery Edge
Only verified, timestamped snap, route, package, and valuable-touch observations enter this research board. Every query is cutoff-aware, and no result changes player OVR or a production fantasy projection.
Waiting for qualified role history
The ledger is live, but NFSMELL withholds velocity until a player has repeated verified point-in-time observations.
fantasy-role-velocity-v1.1 · awaiting evidence · zero production impact.
FORMAT-MATCHED MARKET TEST
Discovery Edge
Role evidence is compared only with attributable redraft-PPR ADP from the same time window. Sleeper add counts are never relabeled as ADP, ownership, or consensus value.
Discovery Edge withheld
The board needs both timestamp-compatible role history and format-matched attributable ADP.
fantasy-discovery-edge-v1 · redraft-ppr · zero production impact until prospective validation beats a declared market baseline.
IMMUTABLE RESEARCH LEDGER
Injury and workload shadow scorecard
Active probability and workload conditional on playing are frozen before kickoff, then scored without rewriting history. This is where CMC-style preservation risk gets tested instead of being smuggled into talent OVR.
0 frozen
Pregame forecasts require attributable evidence receipts and a cutoff before kickoff.
0 settled
Active-status Brier score, conditional workload MAE, and interval coverage remain blank until outcomes exist.
Shadow only
Awaiting the first qualified forecast. No injury-survival output changes rankings, bets, or fantasy projections.
injury-workload-shadow-v1 · production impact: none. Active Brier awaiting outcomes. Workload MAE awaiting outcomes.
THE ADVANTAGE
What high-stakes players actually need
A projection is useful only when its role, health, matchup, and uncertainty can be challenged before lineups lock.
Ability vs. volume
NFSMELL keeps position-relative talent separate from the production forecast, exposing players whose opportunity is running ahead of their underlying play.
Role movement
Depth slot, current roster status, workload context, and forecast movement identify changing opportunity before season totals make it obvious.
Scheme transfer
Current head coach, coordinator, and actual play caller are compared with last season by position. Most transitions widen uncertainty only; the bounded TE usage effect is active because it improved every available walk-forward fold.
Availability risk
Injury and return-to-play uncertainty remain visible. Active does not automatically mean a normal snap share or normal efficiency.
Disagreement hunting
The useful edge is disagreement: forecast versus ability, role versus reputation, live acquisition pressure versus evidence, and eventually NFSMELL probability versus attributable ADP.
CONTRACT WATCH
Real terms, zero motivation mythology
Verified incentives and extension decisions can reveal role stakes or late-season usage pressure. A player simply wanting a new deal is not a predictive statistic.
Exact incentive watch
0 OVR PTSUsage and production incentives are fully disclosed
The 68% offensive-snap trigger and scrimmage-yard ladder are legitimate usage markers to monitor. They do not prove that coaches will force touches, so the projection remains unchanged until actual role data arrives.
- 600 scrimmage yards$200K · Reward rises to $450,000 at 803 yards and doubles with a playoff berth.
- 5 total touchdowns$200K · Reward rises to $450,000 at seven touchdowns and doubles with a playoff berth.
- 68% offensive snaps$250K · Reward doubles with a playoff berth.
Renewal watch
0 OVR PTSExtension talks pause when the season starts
This is a real contract storyline but not a performance feature. NFSMELL will not turn the idea of a player proving himself into fantasy points without evidence.
Exact trigger not publicly disclosed · no adjustment
Incentive pool
0 OVR PTS$12 million incentive pool reported; triggers undisclosed
An undisclosed incentive pool is not actionable. Availability, mobility, pass volume, and red-zone role remain the real projection inputs.
Exact trigger not publicly disclosed · no adjustment
contract-context-v1: all contract signals currently carry zero player-grade, team-rating, betting, and fantasy-projection points. Exact progress tracking will activate after regular-season statistics exist; numerical influence remains locked behind walk-forward validation.
LOADING CURRENT MATCHUP BOARD
Opponent-adjusted player volume
Every line starts from recent per-game usage, shrinks the sample, then adjusts for opponent pass or run defense, expected game script, weather, availability, verified workload management, and early-season uncertainty. The exact matchup and script percentages are now printed beside each player.
Week current projections are not published yet
NFSMELL will not reuse a settled Week 1 fantasy board as a Week current lineup recommendation.
The current-week fantasy board uses only accepted pregame receipts. Non-TD PPR volume includes projected passing yards, rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards under standard PPR yardage rules. Opponent pass/run strength and projected game script move the central volume forecast. The player-coaching-usage-v1 TE adjustment is active after improving retained-player error in every available walk-forward fold; QB, RB, WR, and defensive coaching effects remain explicit uncertainty until they validate. Verified workload receipts can reduce the historical-volume baseline and widen uncertainty without changing OVR. The board excludes turnovers, bonuses, and league-specific scoring here. Schedule rank is position-specific; No. 1 means the easiest modeled 17-game defensive schedule.
EARLY SIGNAL CONTRACT
Fast information, strict trust
Official team reports and transactions are authoritative. Named national reporters, configured local reporters, and rapid aggregators can create a verification lead, but aggregators always require independent corroboration. Anonymous rumors, engagement, and generic social sentiment add zero rating points.
Coaching titles and play-calling authority are handled separately. The site names the actual play caller, compares his pre-cutoff positional usage with the team's prior baseline, shrinks for limited history, and publishes the receipt for every fantasy player. Tight-end usage now has a bounded fantasy-only role because it improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold; QB, RB, and WR coaching effects remain context-only.
Off-field context is collected only when it materially changes availability, role, travel, discipline, or contract status. Contract terms require a direct attributable source; generic contract-year motivation earns zero points. NFSMELL does not infer private medical facts or repeat unsupported allegations.
HONEST LIMIT
The decision layer is live and still accountable
Standard, half-PPR, full-PPR, 1QB, superflex, redraft, keeper, and dynasty controls now produce distinct boards. Expected touchdowns are constrained by each team's projected score and allocated through projected usage. Verified workload-management receipts now adjust fantasy volume separately from player OVR. Turnovers, bonuses, return scoring, IDP, kicker distance buckets, attributable ADP, ownership, and automated late-breaking route or snap-share feeds remain outside the headline until their data contracts close.
Open Breakout Rankings