QB GRADE RECEIPT

C.J. Stroud

Houston Texans / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING76.5B

POSITION RANK#23of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

StarterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form72.0

Player-created value76.5

Next-season projection78.5

Proven NFL resume77.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2025 11%, 2024 10%, 2023 9% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.114

61st percentile

Espn QBR61.7

60th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.127

68th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate44.9

51st percentile

Passing CPOE0.252

39th percentile

First Down Rate31.2

37th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3.139

42nd percentile

Catchable Pass Rate68.4

42nd percentile

76.1 season score494 qualifying plays61.1 postseason score