QB GRADE RECEIPT

Josh Allen

Buffalo Bills / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING90.6A

POSITION RANK#1of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

EliteQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form88.0

Player-created value90.6

Next-season projection90.0

Verified athleticism80.0

Proven NFL resume93.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2025 11%, 2024 12%, 2023 11% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.148

65th percentile

Espn QBR65.4

72nd percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.180

80th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate46.2

62nd percentile

Passing CPOE3.537

79th percentile

First Down Rate36.4

87th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3.755

27th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate72.4

77th percentile

85.8 season score612 qualifying plays82.5 postseason score