QB GRADE RECEIPT

Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING84.7A-

POSITION RANK#7of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Quality starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form85.0

Player-created value84.7

Next-season projection84.0

Proven NFL resume85.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

Only the projection component is walk-forward validated. Current form and career resume are descriptive; players within 1.5 points share an overlap range instead of a claimed exact rank.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.156

64th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.139

65th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate48.9

66th percentile

Passing CPOE4.690

73rd percentile

First Down Rate36.2

75th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate1.439

70th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate75.6

78th percentile

Total TD Rate5.862

73rd percentile

83.8 season score290 qualifying plays