QB GRADE RECEIPT

Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING90.3A

POSITION RANK#2of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

EliteQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form83.0

Player-created value90.3

Next-season projection88.9

Verified athleticism78.0

Proven NFL resume96.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2024 12%, 2023 13% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.173

73rd percentile

Espn QBR68.5

75th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.162

77th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate49.9

73rd percentile

Passing CPOE0.252

41st percentile

First Down Rate33.3

60th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3.166

39th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate68.9

44th percentile

82.6 season score600 qualifying plays