QB GRADE RECEIPT

Jared Goff

Detroit Lions / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING86.0A-

POSITION RANK#6of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

High-end starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form90.0

Player-created value86.0

Next-season projection82.3

Verified athleticism63.0

Proven NFL resume89.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2024 8%, 2023 12% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.181

79th percentile

Espn QBR57.3

39th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.145

72nd percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate48.5

71st percentile

Passing CPOE1.892

62nd percentile

First Down Rate35.9

81st percentile

Interception Worthy Rate1.466

82nd percentile

Catchable Pass Rate72.4

81st percentile

87.7 season score635 qualifying plays