QB GRADE RECEIPT

Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles Rams / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING87.1A-

POSITION RANK#4of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

High-end starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form85.0

Player-created value87.1

Next-season projection86.4

Verified athleticism62.0

Proven NFL resume90.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2025 12%, 2024 10%, 2023 7% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.261

91st percentile

Espn QBR71.2

82nd percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.183

86th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate53.3

88th percentile

Passing CPOE1.544

51st percentile

First Down Rate36.4

84th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate2.269

67th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate72.3

76th percentile

91.6 season score649 qualifying plays78.8 postseason score