Identity, arithmetic, duplicate-player, and snapshot checks are enforced. The active early-season board is 48% roster, 44% prior-anchored opponent-adjusted results, and 8% direct current-season results. The selection window was 2018-2022; evaluation was 2023-2025. Holdout rank correlation was 0.363.
INDEPENDENT NFSMELL TEAM POWER
See the board.
Understand the move.
NFSMELL's 1-through-32 team power order uses current availability, roster value, and opponent-adjusted results. The market is visible as context; it never decides this board.
Team model: team-strength-v39Data updated: October 10, 2026 at 5:41 PM EDT
1 THROUGH 32
Independent NFSMELL team power
This is NFSMELL's independent 48/44/8 roster/results rating. Change compares this board with the prior published board: UP means closer to #1; DOWN means farther away. The separate sensitivity range is not movement. No sportsbook rank enters this order.
UP = CLOSER TO #1DOWN = FARTHER FROM #1SAME = NO POSITION CHANGE
RankChangeTeamOVRTeam offenseTeam defenseAvailability
#1UP 1SEASON +3.8San Francisco 49ersUP 1 SPOTS (was #2) · SEASON +3.8NFC West · SENSITIVITY #1-#5 (watch) · HEALTHY #8 · OUTLOOK #2 · MARKET #7WHY #1: 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#4) is the strongest signal; defense (#11) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #7. The OVR tie is ordered by verified current-season performance.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +10.3 versus opponent and venue expectation; +3.8 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: STANDARD offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points82.0A-84.8team-model component77.9team-model component-0.12 active risk notes#2UP 1SEASON +1.1Buffalo BillsUP 1 SPOTS (was #3) · SEASON +1.1AFC East · SENSITIVITY #1-#2 (stable) · HEALTHY #4 · OUTLOOK #1 · MARKET #3WHY #2: offense (#2) is the strongest signal; defense (#17) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #3. The OVR tie is ordered by verified current-season performance.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +2.9 versus opponent and venue expectation; +1.1 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points82.0A-86.1team-model component74.8team-model component-0.12 active risk notes#3DOWN 2SEASON -2.0Seattle SeahawksDOWN 2 SPOTS (was #1) · SEASON -2.0NFC West · SENSITIVITY #1-#6 (watch) · HEALTHY #11 · OUTLOOK #3 · MARKET #5WHY #3: 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#1) is the strongest signal; current roster (#14) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 1.2 points. The dated market is #5.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -3.7 versus opponent and venue expectation; -2.0 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points81.8B+78.1team-model component82.9team-model component-1.23 active risk notes#4SAMESEASON -3.8Los Angeles RamsUNCHANGED (was #4) · SEASON -3.8NFC West · SENSITIVITY #2-#4 (stable) · HEALTHY #6 · OUTLOOK #4 · MARKET #1WHY #4: 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#5) is the strongest signal; defense (#12) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.2 points. The dated market is #1.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -7.0 versus opponent and venue expectation; -3.8 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points80.9B+84.5team-model component77.3team-model component-0.25 active risk notes#5UP 1SEASON +2.2Jacksonville JaguarsUP 1 SPOTS (was #6) · SEASON +2.2AFC South · SENSITIVITY #5-#14 (fragile) · HEALTHY #22 · OUTLOOK #5 · MARKET #17WHY #5: 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#2) is the strongest signal; current roster (#22) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #17.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +5.8 versus opponent and venue expectation; +2.2 applied to the prior results receipt.80.3B+80.2team-model component78.6team-model component-0.13 active risk notes#6UP 1SEASON -0.4Baltimore RavensUP 1 SPOTS (was #7) · SEASON -0.4AFC North · SENSITIVITY #3-#6 (watch) · HEALTHY #2 · OUTLOOK #6 · MARKET #2WHY #6: current roster (#4) is the strongest signal; defense (#16) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.4 points. The dated market is #2.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -0.7 versus opponent and venue expectation; -0.4 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points79.9B+84.5team-model component75.0team-model component-0.45 active risk notes#7UP 2SEASON +2.4Kansas City ChiefsUP 2 SPOTS (was #9) · SEASON +2.4AFC West · SENSITIVITY #7-#11 (watch) · HEALTHY #10 · OUTLOOK #7 · MARKET #8WHY #7: offense (#9) is the strongest signal; 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#11) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.3 points. The dated market is #8.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +6.4 versus opponent and venue expectation; +2.4 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points78.9B80.0team-model component78.5team-model component-0.33 active risk notes#8DOWN 3SEASON +2.8Minnesota VikingsDOWN 3 SPOTS (was #5) · SEASON +2.8NFC North · SENSITIVITY #8-#13 (watch) · HEALTHY #12 · OUTLOOK #9 · MARKET #18WHY #8: defense (#1) is the strongest signal; offense (#21) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.2 points. The dated market is #18.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +7.4 versus opponent and venue expectation; +2.8 applied to the prior results receipt.78.7B71.9team-model component83.6team-model component-0.22 active risk notes#9DOWN 1SEASON -5.1Detroit LionsDOWN 1 SPOTS (was #8) · SEASON -5.1NFC North · SENSITIVITY #5-#9 (watch) · HEALTHY #1 · OUTLOOK #8 · MARKET #4WHY #9: current roster (#1) is the strongest signal; defense (#27) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.2 points. The dated market is #4.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -9.4 versus opponent and venue expectation; -5.1 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points78.6B88.1team-model component70.9team-model component-0.24 active risk notes#10UP 1SEASON +4.1Cincinnati BengalsUP 1 SPOTS (was #11) · SEASON +4.1AFC North · SENSITIVITY #7-#10 (watch) · HEALTHY #5 · OUTLOOK #10 · MARKET #11WHY #10: current roster (#5) is the strongest signal; defense (#20) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.4 points. The dated market is #11.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +10.9 versus opponent and venue expectation; +4.1 applied to the prior results receipt.78.5B82.1team-model component73.1team-model component-0.41 active risk notes#11DOWN 1SEASON +2.4Chicago BearsDOWN 1 SPOTS (was #10) · SEASON +2.4NFC North · SENSITIVITY #11-#15 (watch) · HEALTHY #17 · OUTLOOK #11 · MARKET #16WHY #11: defense (#7) is the strongest signal; current roster (#18) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.2 points. The dated market is #16.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +6.4 versus opponent and venue expectation; +2.4 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points78.2B77.1team-model component78.9team-model component-0.23 active risk notes#12SAMESEASON -3.0New England PatriotsUNCHANGED (was #12) · SEASON -3.0AFC East · SENSITIVITY #9-#13 (watch) · HEALTHY #14 · OUTLOOK #12 · MARKET #9WHY #12: defense (#4) is the strongest signal; offense (#13) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #9.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -5.6 versus opponent and venue expectation; -3.0 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: STANDARD offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points78.0B74.7team-model component80.8team-model componentMONITOR1 notes · no active deduction#13SAMESEASON -6.8Houston TexansUNCHANGED (was #13) · SEASON -6.8AFC South · SENSITIVITY #9-#13 (watch) · HEALTHY #9 · OUTLOOK #13 · MARKET #12WHY #13: defense (#3) is the strongest signal; offense (#18) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #12.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -12.6 versus opponent and venue expectation; -6.8 applied to the prior results receipt.76.9B72.7team-model component82.2team-model componentCLEARno active deduction#14UP 1SEASON +1.9Dallas CowboysUP 1 SPOTS (was #15) · SEASON +1.9NFC East · SENSITIVITY #8-#15 (fragile) · HEALTHY #3 · OUTLOOK #14 · MARKET #15WHY #14: current roster (#2) is the strongest signal; defense (#29) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.2 points. The dated market is #15.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +5.0 versus opponent and venue expectation; +1.9 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: STANDARD offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points76.8B85.0team-model component69.0team-model component-0.23 active risk notes#15DOWN 1SEASON -4.9Philadelphia EaglesDOWN 1 SPOTS (was #14) · SEASON -4.9NFC East · SENSITIVITY #11-#15 (watch) · HEALTHY #7 · OUTLOOK #15 · MARKET #6WHY #15: defense (#6) is the strongest signal; 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#16) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #6.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -9.0 versus opponent and venue expectation; -4.9 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points76.4B73.8team-model component80.1team-model componentMONITOR2 notes · no active deduction#16SAMESEASON -2.3Denver BroncosUNCHANGED (was #16) · SEASON -2.3AFC West · SENSITIVITY #16-#16 (stable) · HEALTHY #21 · OUTLOOK #16 · MARKET #14WHY #16: defense (#5) is the strongest signal; offense (#23) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #14.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -4.3 versus opponent and venue expectation; -2.3 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points75.7B-71.0team-model component80.1team-model componentMONITOR1 notes · no active deduction#17UP 3SEASON -1.6Indianapolis ColtsUP 3 SPOTS (was #20) · SEASON -1.6AFC South · SENSITIVITY #17-#18 (stable) · HEALTHY #20 · OUTLOOK #17 · MARKET #21WHY #17: offense (#12) is the strongest signal; defense (#23) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #21.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -3.0 versus opponent and venue expectation; -1.6 applied to the prior results receipt.74.6B-77.1team-model component72.3team-model componentMONITOR2 notes · no active deduction#18UP 1SEASON -2.1Pittsburgh SteelersUP 1 SPOTS (was #19) · SEASON -2.1AFC North · SENSITIVITY #17-#18 (stable) · HEALTHY #18 · OUTLOOK #18 · MARKET #19WHY #18: defense (#10) is the strongest signal; offense (#25) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #19.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -3.9 versus opponent and venue expectation; -2.1 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points74.1B-70.8team-model component78.5team-model component-0.12 active risk notes#19DOWN 2SEASON +6.6Las Vegas RaidersDOWN 2 SPOTS (was #17) · SEASON +6.6AFC West · SENSITIVITY #19-#21 (stable) · HEALTHY #13 · OUTLOOK #19 · MARKET #28WHY #19: current roster (#13) is the strongest signal; 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#28) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #28.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +17.6 versus opponent and venue expectation; +6.6 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points72.9C+72.2team-model component75.2team-model component-0.14 active risk notes#20UP 2SEASON -7.1Green Bay PackersUP 2 SPOTS (was #22) · SEASON -7.1NFC North · SENSITIVITY #19-#20 (stable) · HEALTHY #15 · OUTLOOK #20 · MARKET #13WHY #20: defense (#14) is the strongest signal; 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#21) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.3 points. The dated market is #13.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -13.1 versus opponent and venue expectation; -7.1 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: STANDARD offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points72.3C+72.5team-model component75.2team-model component-0.35 active risk notes#21SAMESEASON +2.3Carolina PanthersUNCHANGED (was #21) · SEASON +2.3NFC South · SENSITIVITY #21-#23 (stable) · HEALTHY #24 · OUTLOOK #21 · MARKET #26WHY #21: offense (#14) is the strongest signal; current roster (#25) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.2 points. The dated market is #26.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +6.3 versus opponent and venue expectation; +2.3 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / STANDARD defense · 0 rating points71.9C+74.5team-model component71.6team-model component-0.23 active risk notes#22UP 1SEASON -3.2Tampa Bay BuccaneersUP 1 SPOTS (was #23) · SEASON -3.2NFC South · SENSITIVITY #20-#22 (stable) · HEALTHY #19 · OUTLOOK #22 · MARKET #20WHY #22: current roster (#19) is the strongest signal; 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#25) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #20.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -5.9 versus opponent and venue expectation; -3.2 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points71.5C+71.7team-model component73.7team-model component-0.14 active risk notes#23DOWN 5SEASON -1.8New Orleans SaintsDOWN 5 SPOTS (was #18) · SEASON -1.8NFC South · SENSITIVITY #22-#23 (stable) · HEALTHY #16 · OUTLOOK #23 · MARKET #22WHY #23: current roster (#15) is the strongest signal; 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#29) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #22.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -3.4 versus opponent and venue expectation; -1.8 applied to the prior results receipt.71.4C+72.9team-model component72.6team-model componentMONITOR2 notes · no active deduction#24SAMESEASON +0.2New York GiantsUNCHANGED (was #24) · SEASON +0.2NFC East · SENSITIVITY #24-#26 (stable) · HEALTHY #27 · OUTLOOK #24 · MARKET #23WHY #24: 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#20) is the strongest signal; current roster (#28) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #23.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +0.5 versus opponent and venue expectation; +0.2 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points70.7C+69.5team-model component72.3team-model component-0.14 active risk notes#25UP 2SEASON +1.2Cleveland BrownsUP 2 SPOTS (was #27) · SEASON +1.2AFC North · SENSITIVITY #24-#27 (watch) · HEALTHY #25 · OUTLOOK #26 · MARKET #29WHY #25: defense (#13) is the strongest signal; offense (#29) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #29.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +3.1 versus opponent and venue expectation; +1.2 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points70.2C+66.4team-model component75.4team-model componentMONITOR3 notes · no active deduction#26UP 2SEASON +1.1Atlanta FalconsUP 2 SPOTS (was #28) · SEASON +1.1NFC South · SENSITIVITY #26-#30 (watch) · HEALTHY #31 · OUTLOOK #25 · MARKET #25WHY #26: offense (#17) is the strongest signal; current roster (#31) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #25.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +3.0 versus opponent and venue expectation; +1.1 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points70.1C+72.8team-model component67.9team-model componentMONITOR2 notes · no active deduction#27DOWN 2SEASON -6.3Los Angeles ChargersDOWN 2 SPOTS (was #25) · SEASON -6.3AFC West · SENSITIVITY #25-#27 (stable) · HEALTHY #28 · OUTLOOK #27 · MARKET #10WHY #27: defense (#18) is the strongest signal; offense (#28) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #10.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -11.6 versus opponent and venue expectation; -6.3 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points69.8C67.3team-model component74.6team-model component-0.12 active risk notes#28DOWN 2SEASON +0.5Washington CommandersDOWN 2 SPOTS (was #26) · SEASON +0.5NFC East · SENSITIVITY #24-#28 (watch) · HEALTHY #26 · OUTLOOK #28 · MARKET #24WHY #28: 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#24) is the strongest signal; defense (#31) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.4 points. The dated market is #24.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +1.3 versus opponent and venue expectation; +0.5 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points69.7C71.0team-model component67.5team-model component-0.46 active risk notes#29SAMESEASON +1.7Arizona CardinalsUNCHANGED (was #29) · SEASON +1.7NFC West · SENSITIVITY #28-#29 (stable) · HEALTHY #29 · OUTLOOK #29 · MARKET #32WHY #29: offense (#26) is the strongest signal; defense (#32) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #32.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +4.4 versus opponent and venue expectation; +1.7 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points68.4C70.0team-model component66.7team-model componentMONITOR2 notes · no active deduction#30SAMESEASON +3.6New York JetsUNCHANGED (was #30) · SEASON +3.6AFC East · SENSITIVITY #29-#30 (stable) · HEALTHY #23 · OUTLOOK #30 · MARKET #30WHY #30: current roster (#23) is the strongest signal; 2025 anchor + opponent- and venue-adjusted Week 4 result (#32) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #30.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +9.7 versus opponent and venue expectation; +3.6 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: ELEVATED offense / ELEVATED defense · 0 rating points67.4C-66.3team-model component71.1team-model component-0.13 active risk notes#31SAMESEASON +0.7Tennessee TitansUNCHANGED (was #31) · SEASON +0.7AFC South · SENSITIVITY #31-#31 (stable) · HEALTHY #30 · OUTLOOK #31 · MARKET #27WHY #31: defense (#22) is the strongest signal; offense (#31) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. Availability removes 0.1 points. The dated market is #27.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: +1.8 versus opponent and venue expectation; +0.7 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points66.1C-62.0team-model component72.4team-model component-0.13 active risk notes#32SAMESEASON -5.2Miami DolphinsUNCHANGED (was #32) · SEASON -5.2AFC East · SENSITIVITY #32-#32 (stable) · HEALTHY #32 · OUTLOOK #32 · MARKET #31WHY #32: defense (#28) is the strongest signal; current roster (#32) is the main limiter. Completed current-season results carry 8.0% direct authority. No active availability deduction is applied. The dated market is #31.WEEK 4 CONTEXT: -9.6 versus opponent and venue expectation; -5.2 applied to the prior results receipt.COACHING CONTEXT: HIGH offense / HIGH defense · 0 rating points63.4D61.4team-model component70.1team-model componentMONITOR2 notes · no active deductionPOWER IS NOT PROJECTED WINSSan Francisco 49ers leads the schedule forecast; Baltimore is #7 after schedule
See the win forecast Power asks who is stronger on a neutral field. Projected wins add every opponent and venue to that strength.
MODEL RECEIPTHow this board is built, tested, and compared with the market
Captured September 1, 2026. It contributes 2% only to the separate outlook board after freshness adjustment; it has zero control over the power rank.
Open source receiptUP means closer to #1 compared with the prior published board. Down means farther away. Sensitivity is a separate range that describes how stable the order is under healthy/current roster assumptions. Prior-results holdout rho: 0.393.
FULL 272-GAME SCHEDULE
Schedule-adjusted projected wins
This is a separate directional forecast, not a replacement for team power. It converts each matchup into a win probability using opponent strength and venue, then simulates season outcomes. On the 2023-2025 retrospective evaluation, mean absolute error was 2.58 wins versus 2.74 for a league-average baseline; rank correlation was 0.318. Exact 2026 order remains prospective.
Wins rankTeamProjected68% outcomesPowerScheduleMarket
#1San Francisco 49ersPOWER #1 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #7Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.8W9-13game-outcome range#182.0 OVR#19hardest · 74.5 OVR10.5+0.4 model gap#2Buffalo BillsPOWER #2 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #3Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.7W9-13game-outcome range#282.0 OVR#25hardest · 74.2 OVR10.5+0.2 model gap#3Detroit LionsPOWER #7 · UP 4 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #4Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.5W9-12game-outcome range#779.5 OVR#32hardest · 73.0 OVR10.5-0.0 model gap#4Seattle SeahawksPOWER #3 · DOWN 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #5Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.5W9-12game-outcome range#381.8 OVR#6hardest · 75.4 OVR10.5-0.0 model gap#5Los Angeles RamsPOWER #4 · DOWN 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #1Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.2W8-12game-outcome range#480.9 OVR#7hardest · 75.4 OVR11.5-1.3 model gap#6Jacksonville JaguarsPOWER #5 · DOWN 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #17Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.2W8-12game-outcome range#580.3 OVR#22hardest · 74.3 OVR9.5+0.8 model gap#7Baltimore RavensPOWER #6 · DOWN 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #2Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.2W8-12game-outcome range#679.9 OVR#29hardest · 74.0 OVR11.5-1.2 model gap#8Cincinnati BengalsPOWER #10 · UP 2 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #11Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.10.1W8-12game-outcome range#1078.5 OVR#31hardest · 73.2 OVR9.5+0.5 model gap#9Minnesota VikingsPOWER #9 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #18Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.9.9W8-12game-outcome range#978.7 OVR#23hardest · 74.3 OVR8.5+1.4 model gap#10Kansas City ChiefsPOWER #8 · DOWN 2 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #8Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.9.8W8-12game-outcome range#878.9 OVR#20hardest · 74.4 OVR10.5-0.6 model gap#11Chicago BearsPOWER #11 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #16Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.9.6W8-12game-outcome range#1178.4 OVR#10hardest · 75.1 OVR9.5+0.1 model gap#12New England PatriotsPOWER #12 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #9Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.9.4W7-11game-outcome range#1278.0 OVR#16hardest · 74.6 OVR10.5-1.0 model gap#13Houston TexansPOWER #13 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #12Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.9.3W7-11game-outcome range#1376.9 OVR#24hardest · 74.3 OVR9.5-0.3 model gap#14Dallas CowboysPOWER #14 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #15Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.9.2W7-11game-outcome range#1476.8 OVR#17hardest · 74.6 OVR9.5-0.3 model gap#15Philadelphia EaglesPOWER #15 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #6Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.9.1W7-11game-outcome range#1576.4 OVR#15hardest · 74.7 OVR10.5-1.4 model gap#16Denver BroncosPOWER #16 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #14Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.8.7W7-11game-outcome range#1675.7 OVR#11hardest · 74.9 OVR9.5-0.9 model gap#17Indianapolis ColtsPOWER #17 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #21Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.8.5W6-10game-outcome range#1774.6 OVR#21hardest · 74.4 OVR7.5+0.9 model gap#18Pittsburgh SteelersPOWER #18 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #19Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.8.2W6-10game-outcome range#1874.1 OVR#14hardest · 74.8 OVR8.5-0.2 model gap#19Las Vegas RaidersPOWER #19 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #28Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.8.0W6-10game-outcome range#1972.9 OVR#26hardest · 74.2 OVR5.5+2.5 model gap#20New Orleans SaintsPOWER #23 · UP 3 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #22Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.7.9W6-10game-outcome range#2371.4 OVR#30hardest · 73.6 OVR7.5+0.4 model gap#21Tampa Bay BuccaneersPOWER #22 · UP 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #20Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.7.6W6-10game-outcome range#2271.5 OVR#18hardest · 74.5 OVR8.5-0.8 model gap#22Carolina PanthersPOWER #21 · DOWN 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #26Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.7.6W6-10game-outcome range#2171.9 OVR#12hardest · 74.9 OVR7.5+0.2 model gap#23Green Bay PackersPOWER #20 · DOWN 3 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #13Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.7.6W6-10game-outcome range#2072.3 OVR#5hardest · 75.5 OVR9.5-2.0 model gap#24Cleveland BrownsPOWER #26 · UP 2 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #29Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.7.3W5-9game-outcome range#2670.4 OVR#27hardest · 74.1 OVR5.5+1.8 model gap#25Atlanta FalconsPOWER #25 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #25Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.7.2W5-9game-outcome range#2570.6 OVR#13hardest · 74.8 OVR7.5-0.2 model gap#26New York GiantsPOWER #24 · DOWN 2 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #23Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.7.2W5-9game-outcome range#2470.7 OVR#9hardest · 75.2 OVR7.5-0.3 model gap#27Washington CommandersPOWER #28 · UP 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #24Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.6.7W5-9game-outcome range#2869.7 OVR#4hardest · 75.7 OVR7.5-0.7 model gap#28Los Angeles ChargersPOWER #27 · DOWN 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #10Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.6.7W5-9game-outcome range#2769.8 OVR#3hardest · 75.7 OVR10.5-3.8 model gap#29New York JetsPOWER #30 · UP 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #30Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.6.6W5-9game-outcome range#3067.7 OVR#28hardest · 74.0 OVR5.5+1.1 model gap#30Arizona CardinalsPOWER #29 · DOWN 1 AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #32Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.6.2W4-8game-outcome range#2968.4 OVR#1hardest · 76.4 OVR3.5+2.6 model gap#31Tennessee TitansPOWER #31 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #27Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.5.7W4-8game-outcome range#3166.1 OVR#8hardest · 75.3 OVR6.5-0.7 model gap#32Miami DolphinsPOWER #32 · SAME AFTER SCHEDULE · MARKET #31Independent schedule forecast; sportsbook total is shown only for comparison.4.7W3-6game-outcome range#3263.4 OVR#2hardest · 76.3 OVR4.5+0.3 model gapThe simulated range reflects game-result variance around fixed team estimates. It is not a complete confidence interval and does not claim one-win precision. Market data has zero weight in this projection.
SEPARATE MODEL
Market-informed season outlook
This board starts with the same independent 48/44/8 NFSMELL rating, then gives the dated market receipt only its disclosed freshness-adjusted share. It is context for disagreement, not the default NFSMELL power rank.
Open the market-informed 1-through-32 outlook
OutlookTeamScoreNFSMELLMarketAvailability
#1Buffalo BillsAFC East · NFSMELL #2 · MARKET #3 · O/U 10.5 wins82.0A-#282.0 OVR#310.54 fair wins-0.12 monitored notes#2San Francisco 49ersNFC West · NFSMELL #1 · MARKET #7 · O/U 10.5 wins81.9B+#182.0 OVR#710.44 fair wins-0.12 monitored notes#3Seattle SeahawksNFC West · NFSMELL #3 · MARKET #5 · O/U 10.5 wins81.7B+#381.8 OVR#510.53 fair wins-1.23 monitored notes#4Los Angeles RamsNFC West · NFSMELL #4 · MARKET #1 · O/U 11.5 wins81.0B+#480.9 OVR#111.56 fair wins-0.25 monitored notes#5Jacksonville JaguarsAFC South · NFSMELL #5 · MARKET #17 · O/U 9.5 wins80.2B+#580.3 OVR#179.43 fair wins-0.13 monitored notes#6Baltimore RavensAFC North · NFSMELL #6 · MARKET #2 · O/U 11.5 wins80.0B+#679.9 OVR#211.42 fair wins-0.45 monitored notes#7Kansas City ChiefsAFC West · NFSMELL #7 · MARKET #8 · O/U 10.5 wins79.0B+#778.9 OVR#810.43 fair wins-0.33 monitored notes#8Detroit LionsNFC North · NFSMELL #9 · MARKET #4 · O/U 10.5 wins78.7B#978.6 OVR#410.54 fair wins-0.24 monitored notes#9Minnesota VikingsNFC North · NFSMELL #8 · MARKET #18 · O/U 8.5 wins78.6B#878.7 OVR#188.53 fair wins-0.22 monitored notes#10Cincinnati BengalsAFC North · NFSMELL #10 · MARKET #11 · O/U 9.5 wins78.5B#1078.5 OVR#119.59 fair wins-0.41 monitored notes#11Chicago BearsNFC North · NFSMELL #11 · MARKET #16 · O/U 9.5 wins78.2B#1178.2 OVR#169.47 fair wins-0.23 monitored notes#12New England PatriotsAFC East · NFSMELL #12 · MARKET #9 · O/U 10.5 wins78.1B#1278.0 OVR#910.43 fair winsCLEAR1 monitored notes#13Houston TexansAFC South · NFSMELL #13 · MARKET #12 · O/U 9.5 wins76.9B#1376.9 OVR#129.58 fair winsCLEAR0 monitored notes#14Dallas CowboysNFC East · NFSMELL #14 · MARKET #15 · O/U 9.5 wins76.9B#1476.8 OVR#159.50 fair wins-0.23 monitored notes#15Philadelphia EaglesNFC East · NFSMELL #15 · MARKET #6 · O/U 10.5 wins76.5B#1576.4 OVR#610.45 fair winsCLEAR2 monitored notes#16Denver BroncosAFC West · NFSMELL #16 · MARKET #14 · O/U 9.5 wins75.8B-#1675.7 OVR#149.53 fair winsCLEAR1 monitored notes#17Indianapolis ColtsAFC South · NFSMELL #17 · MARKET #21 · O/U 7.5 wins74.5B-#1774.6 OVR#217.57 fair winsCLEAR2 monitored notes#18Pittsburgh SteelersAFC North · NFSMELL #18 · MARKET #19 · O/U 8.5 wins74.1B-#1874.1 OVR#198.46 fair wins-0.12 monitored notes#19Las Vegas RaidersAFC West · NFSMELL #19 · MARKET #28 · O/U 5.5 wins72.8C+#1972.9 OVR#285.55 fair wins-0.14 monitored notes#20Green Bay PackersNFC North · NFSMELL #20 · MARKET #13 · O/U 9.5 wins72.5C+#2072.3 OVR#139.54 fair wins-0.35 monitored notes#21Carolina PanthersNFC South · NFSMELL #21 · MARKET #26 · O/U 7.5 wins71.9C+#2171.9 OVR#267.43 fair wins-0.23 monitored notes#22Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFC South · NFSMELL #22 · MARKET #20 · O/U 8.5 wins71.6C+#2271.5 OVR#208.45 fair wins-0.14 monitored notes#23New Orleans SaintsNFC South · NFSMELL #23 · MARKET #22 · O/U 7.5 wins71.4C+#2371.4 OVR#227.53 fair winsCLEAR2 monitored notes#24New York GiantsNFC East · NFSMELL #24 · MARKET #23 · O/U 7.5 wins70.7C+#2470.7 OVR#237.48 fair wins-0.14 monitored notes#25Atlanta FalconsNFC South · NFSMELL #26 · MARKET #25 · O/U 7.5 wins70.1C+#2670.1 OVR#257.43 fair winsCLEAR2 monitored notes#26Cleveland BrownsAFC North · NFSMELL #25 · MARKET #29 · O/U 5.5 wins70.1C+#2570.2 OVR#295.53 fair winsCLEAR3 monitored notes#27Los Angeles ChargersAFC West · NFSMELL #27 · MARKET #10 · O/U 10.5 wins70.0C+#2769.8 OVR#1010.41 fair wins-0.12 monitored notes#28Washington CommandersNFC East · NFSMELL #28 · MARKET #24 · O/U 7.5 wins69.7C#2869.7 OVR#247.46 fair wins-0.46 monitored notes#29Arizona CardinalsNFC West · NFSMELL #29 · MARKET #32 · O/U 3.5 wins68.2C#2968.4 OVR#323.58 fair winsCLEAR2 monitored notes#30New York JetsAFC East · NFSMELL #30 · MARKET #30 · O/U 5.5 wins67.4C-#3067.4 OVR#305.50 fair wins-0.13 monitored notes#31Tennessee TitansAFC South · NFSMELL #31 · MARKET #27 · O/U 6.5 wins66.2C-#3166.1 OVR#276.44 fair wins-0.13 monitored notes#32Miami DolphinsAFC East · NFSMELL #32 · MARKET #31 · O/U 4.5 wins63.3D#3263.4 OVR#314.37 fair winsCLEAR2 monitored notesTHE RECEIPT
What moves a team
Position-weighted roster
QB receives the largest share. Premium receivers, tackles, edge defenders, and corners matter more than specialists and low-volume depth roles.
Selected result share
Independent team power uses a 44% opponent-adjusted prior-results share after selection on 2018-2022 and evaluation on 2023-2025. After three completed games, a separate 8% direct current-season share is active across all 32 teams. The 2026 exact order remains a frozen prospective test.
Schedule translation
Projected wins apply the independent team OVR to every opponent and venue. This creates a separate season forecast without letting futures prices rewrite NFSMELL power.
Verified-game recovery
Major-injury returns keep a temporary deduction until current-season games establish workload. Calendar time alone does not erase the uncertainty.
Staff and scheme transfer
Head coach, coordinators, and the actual offensive play caller are compared with last season. Changes are visible uncertainty context and currently add zero team-rating points.
Capped market prior
A one-book futures snapshot starts at 15% of outlook and multi-book consensus may start at 20%. Both decay after seven days; any unused market share returns to the independent NFSMELL core while its published rank remains unchanged.