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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": 1.7, "matchupPct": 1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::De'Von Achane::RB", "name": "De'Von Achane", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 13.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 13.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 13.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.9, "planningRange": { "low": 9.6, "high": 18 }, "confidence": 0.46989999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": 8, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.528, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4911, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Amon-Ra St. Brown::WR1", "name": "Amon-Ra St. Brown", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 11.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.57, "planningRange": { "low": 7.5, "high": 15.1 }, "confidence": 0.52295, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": 3, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3024, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": -0.1 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Omarion Hampton::RB", "name": "Omarion Hampton", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 13.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 13.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 13.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.81, "planningRange": { "low": 8.8, "high": 17.8 }, "confidence": 0.3656, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": 13, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Javonte Williams::RB", "name": "Javonte Williams", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 11.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.72, "planningRange": { "low": 7.9, "high": 15.5 }, "confidence": 0.5172999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.427, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.427, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.8, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -8.3, "matchupPct": -5.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Rashee Rice::WR1", "name": "Rashee Rice", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 9.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.44, "planningRange": { "low": 5.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.4280499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Bucky Irving::RB", "name": "Bucky Irving", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 11.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.62, "planningRange": { "low": 7.7, "high": 15.5 }, "confidence": 0.47940000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": 15, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4748, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4858, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.9, "matchupDelta": -5.9, "matchupPct": -4.1, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Quinshon Judkins::RB", "name": "Quinshon Judkins", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 11.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.68, "planningRange": { "low": 7.2, "high": 15.6 }, "confidence": 0.4160500000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 3.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4831, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4761, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Zay Flowers::WR1", "name": "Zay Flowers", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 9.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.47, "planningRange": { "low": 5.4, "high": 13 }, "confidence": 0.49405000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 15, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 3.4, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Rico Dowdle::RB", "name": "Rico Dowdle", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 11.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.7, "planningRange": { "low": 7.2, "high": 15.2 }, "confidence": 0.48164999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 25, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5068, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4729, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 73.7, "defenseRating": 74, "matchupDelta": -0.3, "matchupPct": -0.2, "gameScriptPct": 1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::George Pickens::WR2", "name": "George Pickens", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 9.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 5.4, "high": 12.8 }, "confidence": 0.5127499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": 11, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::A.J. Brown::WR1", "name": "A.J. Brown", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 5.4, "high": 12.6 }, "confidence": 0.5388499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Trey McBride::TE", "name": "Trey McBride", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 8.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.35, "planningRange": { "low": 4.9, "high": 12.5 }, "confidence": 0.48880000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 1, "seasonBaselineRank": 2, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": -0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Tony Pollard::RB", "name": "Tony Pollard", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 10.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.7, "planningRange": { "low": 7, "high": 14.8 }, "confidence": 0.48555, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": 29, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 62.8, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -13.4, "matchupPct": -9.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Malik Nabers::WR1", "name": "Malik Nabers", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 8.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.44, "planningRange": { "low": 4.3, "high": 12.7 }, "confidence": 0.35685, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 12, "seasonBaselineRank": 13, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2903, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2948, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Drake London::WR1", "name": "Drake London", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 8.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.32, "planningRange": { "low": 4.5, "high": 12.3 }, "confidence": 0.44715, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": 10, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Kenneth Walker III::RB", "name": "Kenneth Walker III", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 10.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.69, "planningRange": { "low": 6.7, "high": 14.1 }, "confidence": 0.521, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": 20, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 2.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4191, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4191, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 69.7, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -5.7, "matchupPct": -4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Davante Adams::WR2", "name": "Davante Adams", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 8.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 4.5, "high": 12.1 }, "confidence": 0.49365, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": 5, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Justin Herbert::QB", "name": "Justin Herbert", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 21.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 21.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 21.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 2.1, "planningRange": { "low": 17.2, "high": 25.4 }, "confidence": 0.52355, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 1, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5498, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5493, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -1.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -0.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Jaylen Warren::RB", "name": "Jaylen Warren", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 10.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.65, "planningRange": { "low": 6.4, "high": 14.2 }, "confidence": 0.48164999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": 27, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5068, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4729, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 73.7, "defenseRating": 74, "matchupDelta": -0.3, "matchupPct": -0.2, "gameScriptPct": 1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Jameson Williams::WR2", "name": "Jameson Williams", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 8.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 4.5, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.5138499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3024, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Ladd McConkey::WR1", "name": "Ladd McConkey", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 8.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.44, "planningRange": { "low": 4.5, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.49625, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": 31, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3595, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3595, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Sam LaPorta::TE", "name": "Sam LaPorta", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 7.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 3.8, "high": 11.4 }, "confidence": 0.46900000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 2, "seasonBaselineRank": 5, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 2.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Woody Marks::RB", "name": "Woody Marks", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 9.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.57, "planningRange": { "low": 5.9, "high": 13.9 }, "confidence": 0.4425500000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": 35, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4503, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4503, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Aaron Jones Sr.::RB", "name": "Aaron Jones Sr.", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 9.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.63, "planningRange": { "low": 6.1, "high": 13.7 }, "confidence": 0.50435, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": 30, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4732, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4732, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.2, "defenseRating": 74.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:jacksonville-jaguars", "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 8.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 15.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 1, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.630692, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Garrett Wilson::WR1", "name": "Garrett Wilson", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.4273, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": 22, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Rhamondre Stevenson::RB", "name": "Rhamondre Stevenson", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 9.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.56, "planningRange": { "low": 6.1, "high": 13.5 }, "confidence": 0.5317000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 24, "seasonBaselineRank": 21, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4558, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4558, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.4, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": -9.5, "matchupPct": -6.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::J.K. Dobbins::RB", "name": "J.K. Dobbins", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 9.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 5.9, "high": 13.7 }, "confidence": 0.4625, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4238, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4238, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 72.2, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -3, "matchupPct": -2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Chuba Hubbard::RB", "name": "Chuba Hubbard", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 9.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.61, "planningRange": { "low": 5.9, "high": 13.3 }, "confidence": 0.5119, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 33, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 1.7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4949, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4949, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.7, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::DeVonta Smith::WR1", "name": "DeVonta Smith", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 7.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 3.8, "high": 11.2 }, "confidence": 0.50405, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": 25, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jakobi Meyers::WR3", "name": "Jakobi Meyers", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 7.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.44, "planningRange": { "low": 3.8, "high": 11.2 }, "confidence": 0.5127499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": 18, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Justin Jefferson::WR1", "name": "Justin Jefferson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 7.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.1 }, "confidence": 0.5322999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": 18, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Brock Bowers::TE", "name": "Brock Bowers", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 3.3, "high": 11.1 }, "confidence": 0.43155000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": 4, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9656, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1765, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1481, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": -0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Jared Goff::QB", "name": "Jared Goff", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "QB", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 20.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 20.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 20.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 2.11, "planningRange": { "low": 16.3, "high": 24.3 }, "confidence": 0.5366000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 2, "seasonBaselineRank": 8, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5684, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5694, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -2.5, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 6.5 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.5, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 2.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 5.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::David Montgomery::RB", "name": "David Montgomery", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 9.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.6, "planningRange": { "low": 5.6, "high": 13 }, "confidence": 0.5094999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": 23, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4503, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4503, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Alec Pierce::WR1", "name": "Alec Pierce", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.29, "planningRange": { "low": 3.5, "high": 10.9 }, "confidence": 0.5056, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 24, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Rome Odunze::WR1", "name": "Rome Odunze", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.31, "planningRange": { "low": 3.4, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.4865499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": 34, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Brian Thomas Jr.::WR1", "name": "Brian Thomas Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.42, "planningRange": { "low": 3.4, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.49324999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 32, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Travis Kelce::TE", "name": "Travis Kelce", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 6.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.31, "planningRange": { "low": 3.2, "high": 10.4 }, "confidence": 0.52555, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": 7, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:tennessee-titans", "name": "Tennessee Titans D/ST", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DST", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 14.7 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 2, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.543961, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Marvin Harrison Jr.::WR1", "name": "Marvin Harrison Jr.", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 6.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 3.1, "high": 10.7 }, "confidence": 0.44264999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": 43, "weeklyRankDelta": 14, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Cameron Dicker::K", "name": "Cameron Dicker", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607046, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Juwan Johnson::TE", "name": "Juwan Johnson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 6.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 9.6 }, "confidence": 0.5447000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 17, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1384, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1384, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Dalton Schultz::TE", "name": "Dalton Schultz", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.31, "planningRange": { "low": 2.4, "high": 9.6 }, "confidence": 0.51405, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 20, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.123, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.123, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Ka'imi Fairbairn::K", "name": "Ka'imi Fairbairn", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "K", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.7, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.541817, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jake Elliott::K", "name": "Jake Elliott", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "K", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.7, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614399, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Jaylen Waddle::WR1", "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 9.8 }, "confidence": 0.5157999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 36, "seasonBaselineRank": 33, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Drake Maye::QB", "name": "Drake Maye", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 19.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.61, "planningRange": { "low": 15, "high": 23.4 }, "confidence": 0.4823, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.504, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.504, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.4, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": -9.5, "matchupPct": -6.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::C.J. Stroud::QB", "name": "C.J. Stroud", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 19.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.86, "planningRange": { "low": 14.8, "high": 23.6 }, "confidence": 0.4698500000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 22, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5506, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5506, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Spencer Shrader::K", "name": "Spencer Shrader", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "K", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 7.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 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}, { "id": "dst:minnesota-vikings", "name": "Minnesota Vikings D/ST", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524342, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:kansas-city-chiefs", "name": "Kansas City Chiefs D/ST", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 6.6, 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"coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:denver-broncos", "name": "Denver Broncos D/ST", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 12, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471067, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Jayden Reed::WR2", "name": "Jayden Reed", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 5.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.28, "planningRange": { "low": 2, "high": 9.6 }, "confidence": 0.43095000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.3, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -8.5, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Cam Skattebo::RB", "name": "Cam Skattebo", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.47, "planningRange": { "low": 3.6, "high": 12 }, "confidence": 0.32175, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 10, "weeklyRankDelta": -21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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"opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.2, "high": 11.2 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.536825, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", 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"LOW", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.640518, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Hunter Henry::TE", "name": "Hunter Henry", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 1.9, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.546, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { 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"coachingUsageExpected": 0.1155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -0.5, "matchupPct": -0.3, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Chase McLaughlin::K", "name": "Chase McLaughlin", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.1, "high": 11.1 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.447861, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Cooper Kupp::WR3", "name": "Cooper Kupp", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 5.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 2, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.49300000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 43, "seasonBaselineRank": 53, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2935, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2935, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Khalil Shakir::WR2", "name": "Khalil Shakir", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 5.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 2, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.5157999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 44, "seasonBaselineRank": 49, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2591, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2591, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Romeo Doubs::WR2", "name": "Romeo Doubs", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 5.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 2, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.53625, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 45, "seasonBaselineRank": 47, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Dallas Goedert::TE", "name": "Dallas Goedert", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 5.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.29, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.4865000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1067, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1067, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Eddy Pineiro::K", "name": "Eddy Pineiro", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427413, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Tyler Bass::K", "name": "Tyler Bass", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "K", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.455738, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Will Reichard::K", "name": "Will Reichard", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "K", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524342, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:los-angeles-rams", "name": "Los Angeles Rams D/ST", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DST", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 6.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 13.3 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.570163, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Jerry Jeudy::WR1", "name": "Jerry Jeudy", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 5.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 1.9, "high": 9.1 }, "confidence": 0.49600000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 46, "seasonBaselineRank": 67, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", 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"CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473205, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Xavier Worthy::WR2", "name": "Xavier Worthy", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 1.8, "high": 9 }, "confidence": 0.49044999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 47, "seasonBaselineRank": 58, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Jacoby Brissett::QB", "name": "Jacoby Brissett", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 18.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.53, "planningRange": { "low": 13.6, "high": 23.2 }, "confidence": 0.4075499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.6394, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.6082, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.6, "matchupDelta": -5.6, "matchupPct": -3.9, "gameScriptPct": -2.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Lamar Jackson::QB", "name": "Lamar Jackson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 18.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.62, "planningRange": { "low": 14.2, "high": 22.6 }, "confidence": 0.49535, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": 4, "weeklyRankDelta": -12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4543, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4543, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 76.5, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Harrison Butker::K", "name": "Harrison Butker", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "K", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 6.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.8, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.52648, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Tre Tucker::WR1", "name": "Tre Tucker", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 5.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 9 }, "confidence": 0.4504000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 48, "seasonBaselineRank": 60, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Terry McLaurin::WR1", "name": "Terry McLaurin", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 5.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.4807, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 49, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": -23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Brenton Strange::TE", "name": "Brenton Strange", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 1.3, "high": 8.7 }, "confidence": 0.46075, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0998, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0998, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Jacory Croskey-Merritt::RB", "name": "Jacory Croskey-Merritt", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 7.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.46, "planningRange": { "low": 3.5, "high": 11.1 }, "confidence": 0.44754999999999984, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 33, "seasonBaselineRank": 34, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": -9.2, "matchupPct": -6.4, "gameScriptPct": -2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Jordan Mason::RB", "name": "Jordan Mason", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 7.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 3.6, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.50695, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 34, "seasonBaselineRank": 36, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4732, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4732, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.2, "defenseRating": 74.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:houston-texans", "name": "Houston Texans D/ST", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 13 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.541817, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Rashid Shaheed::WR2", "name": "Rashid Shaheed", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 5.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.28, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 8.8 }, "confidence": 0.48974999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 50, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2935, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2935, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Stefon Diggs::WR2", "name": "Stefon Diggs", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 5.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 8.8 }, "confidence": 0.5131999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 29, "weeklyRankDelta": -22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Bo Nix::QB", "name": "Bo Nix", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 18.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.57, "planningRange": { "low": 13.8, "high": 22.6 }, "confidence": 0.4566499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5734, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5734, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -0.7 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 72.2, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -3, "matchupPct": -2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kenny Gainwell::RB", "name": "Kenny Gainwell", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 3.5, "high": 10.9 }, "confidence": 0.49305, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 35, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4748, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4858, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.9, "matchupDelta": -5.9, "matchupPct": -4.1, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Cairo Santos::K", "name": "Cairo Santos", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "K", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502201, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", 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"LOW", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.460727, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Trey Smack::K", "name": "Trey Smack", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473205, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Kayshon Boutte::WR4", "name": "Kayshon Boutte", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 8.8 }, "confidence": 0.46335000000000015, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 52, "seasonBaselineRank": 50, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Jordan Addison::WR2", "name": "Jordan Addison", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.25, "planningRange": { "low": 1.5, "high": 8.7 }, "confidence": 0.5089, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 36, "weeklyRankDelta": -17, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Greg Dulcich::TE", "name": "Greg Dulcich", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 4.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8.8 }, "confidence": 0.26514999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 29, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0046, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.112, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Daniel Jones::QB", "name": "Daniel Jones", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 18.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.61, "planningRange": { "low": 13.9, "high": 22.3 }, "confidence": 0.48805, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5531, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5531, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.4 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 79.8, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": 3.5, "matchupPct": 2.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Andy Borregales::K", "name": "Andy Borregales", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "K", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 10.5 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.435557, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", 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"CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.543961, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Ryan Fitzgerald::K", "name": "Ryan Fitzgerald", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 10.5 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495342, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Wil Lutz::K", "name": "Wil Lutz", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "K", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 10.5 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471067, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Jauan Jennings::WR3", "name": "Jauan Jennings", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 8.6 }, "confidence": 0.5153999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 39, "weeklyRankDelta": -15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Calvin Ridley::WR3", "name": "Calvin Ridley", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 1.2, "high": 8.8 }, "confidence": 0.40234999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 59, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3122, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3298, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Jake Ferguson::TE", "name": "Jake Ferguson", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 4.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 1.1, "high": 8.3 }, "confidence": 0.5127499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 16, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1267, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1267, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::RJ Harvey::RB", "name": "RJ Harvey", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.37, "planningRange": { "low": 3.2, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.4462499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 36, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -0.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4238, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4238, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.2, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Jordan Love::QB", "name": "Jordan Love", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 17.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.77, "planningRange": { "low": 13.8, "high": 22 }, "confidence": 0.5057, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": 20, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Rachaad White::RB", "name": "Rachaad White", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 6.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 2.8, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.3653119999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 37, "seasonBaselineRank": 37, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4197, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4197, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": -9.2, "matchupPct": -6.4, "gameScriptPct": -2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Drew Stevens::K", "name": "Drew Stevens", "teamName": "Washington 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.2, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Mike Gesicki::FB", "name": "Mike Gesicki", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 7.8 }, "confidence": 0.48224999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1263, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1263, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Blake Grupe::K", "name": "Blake Grupe", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "K", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 5.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 1.9, "high": 9.9 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.453596, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Kendrick Bourne::WR3", "name": "Kendrick Bourne", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0.7, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.43224999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 59, "seasonBaselineRank": 101, "weeklyRankDelta": 42, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": -9.2, "matchupPct": -6.4, "gameScriptPct": -2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:baltimore-ravens", "name": "Baltimore Ravens D/ST", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": -0.9, "high": 12.1 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487273, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Devaughn Vele::WR2", "name": "Devaughn Vele", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 4.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.43029999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 60, "seasonBaselineRank": 85, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3353, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3353, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Keon Coleman::WR3", "name": "Keon Coleman", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 4.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 0.7, "high": 7.9 }, "confidence": 0.4573, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 61, "seasonBaselineRank": 57, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2591, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2591, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Jalen McMillan::WR3", "name": "Jalen McMillan", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 4.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0.4, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.287, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 38, "weeklyRankDelta": -24, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 76.3, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 2.1, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:miami-dolphins", "name": "Miami Dolphins D/ST", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 4.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": -1.1, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.460727, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::AJ Barner::TE", "name": "AJ Barner", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.47284999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": 22, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Isaiah Likely::TE", "name": "Isaiah Likely", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.42250000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 35, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0251, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0984, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1114, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Troy Franklin::WR3", "name": "Troy Franklin", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0.4, "high": 7.6 }, "confidence": 0.50215, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 65, "seasonBaselineRank": 65, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Marquise Brown::WR", "name": "Marquise Brown", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 0.4, "high": 7.6 }, "confidence": 0.441, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 66, "seasonBaselineRank": 55, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Elic Ayomanor::WR", "name": "Elic Ayomanor", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.39585000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 88, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3122, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3298, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Tyler Higbee::FB", "name": "Tyler Higbee", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 3.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.35975, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Kyler Murray::QB", "name": "Kyler Murray", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 17, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.56, "planningRange": { "low": 12.7, "high": 21.3 }, "confidence": 0.4588499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": 18, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5414, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5414, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -2 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.2, "defenseRating": 74.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Tyjae Spears::RB", "name": "Tyjae Spears", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 2.2, "high": 9.8 }, "confidence": 0.4316000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 41, "seasonBaselineRank": 50, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 62.8, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -13.4, "matchupPct": -9.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Andre Szmyt::K", "name": "Andre Szmyt", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "K", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 9.4 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.366968, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:buffalo-bills", "name": "Buffalo Bills D/ST", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 4.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": -1.3, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 24, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.455738, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::T.J. Hockenson::TE", "name": "T.J. Hockenson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 0.1, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.5056499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": 27, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1051, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1051, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:new-york-giants", "name": "New York Giants D/ST", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 4.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": -1.4, "high": 11.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502912, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Andrei Iosivas::WR3", "name": "Andrei Iosivas", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 7.3 }, "confidence": 0.50305, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 68, "seasonBaselineRank": 100, "weeklyRankDelta": 32, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3595, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3595, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Colby Parkinson::TE", "name": "Colby Parkinson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.47935, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": 21, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Oronde Gadsden II::TE", "name": "Oronde Gadsden II", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.4137, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 30, "seasonBaselineRank": 18, "weeklyRankDelta": -12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Evan Engram::TE", "name": "Evan Engram", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.50735, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 32, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Najee Harris::RB", "name": "Najee Harris", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 5.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 1.8, "high": 9.8 }, "confidence": 0.3314999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": -18, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Xavier Legette::WR3", "name": "Xavier Legette", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 3.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.1, "high": 7.3 }, "confidence": 0.48915, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 70, "seasonBaselineRank": 106, "weeklyRankDelta": 36, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Bam Knight::RB", "name": "Bam Knight", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 5.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 9.7 }, "confidence": 0.30940000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 43, "seasonBaselineRank": 62, "weeklyRankDelta": 19, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4099, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4341, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:indianapolis-colts", "name": "Indianapolis Colts D/ST", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": -1.6, "high": 11.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51027, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Malik Washington::WR1", "name": "Malik Washington", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.41984999999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 71, "seasonBaselineRank": 122, "weeklyRankDelta": 51, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jalen Nailor::WR2", "name": "Jalen Nailor", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.3 }, "confidence": 0.40945, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 72, "seasonBaselineRank": 96, "weeklyRankDelta": 24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Rashod Bateman::WR2", "name": "Rashod Bateman", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.4388, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 73, "seasonBaselineRank": 103, "weeklyRankDelta": 30, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Michael Mayer::TE", "name": "Michael Mayer", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.4036, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 34, "seasonBaselineRank": 59, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9656, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1765, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1481, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Xavier Hutchinson::WR2", "name": "Xavier Hutchinson", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 3.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.4594499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 130, "weeklyRankDelta": 52, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jake Tonges::TE", "name": "Jake Tonges", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.7 }, "confidence": 0.39845, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 35, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": -21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1232, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1232, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Tyler Conklin::TE", "name": "Tyler Conklin", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.7 }, "confidence": 0.37215, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 36, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.06, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0898, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1281, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Noah Fant::FB", "name": "Noah Fant", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.49465, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 37, "seasonBaselineRank": 43, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1384, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1384, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Cole Kmet::TE", "name": "Cole Kmet", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.5053999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 38, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.126, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.126, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Olamide Zaccheaus::WR3", "name": "Olamide Zaccheaus", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.43544999999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 79, "seasonBaselineRank": 117, "weeklyRankDelta": 38, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::John Metchie III::WR4", "name": "John Metchie III", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.4482, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 80, "seasonBaselineRank": 139, "weeklyRankDelta": 59, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Tyler Allgeier::RB", "name": "Tyler Allgeier", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 5.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.37, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 9 }, "confidence": 0.4706000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 44, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4099, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4341, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.6, "matchupDelta": -5.6, "matchupPct": -3.9, "gameScriptPct": -2.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Tory Horton::WR4", "name": "Tory Horton", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 56, "weeklyRankDelta": -25, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.6, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2935, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2935, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Josh Palmer::WR", "name": "Josh Palmer", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.45665000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 82, "seasonBaselineRank": 115, "weeklyRankDelta": 33, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2591, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2591, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Ryan Flournoy::WR3", "name": "Ryan Flournoy", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.40679999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 83, "seasonBaselineRank": 72, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::David Njoku::TE", "name": "David Njoku", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.5 }, "confidence": 0.45920000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 39, "seasonBaselineRank": 38, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Chig Okonkwo::TE", "name": "Chig Okonkwo", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.48524999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 40, "seasonBaselineRank": 33, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:washington-commanders", "name": "Washington Commanders D/ST", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 3.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": -2.1, "high": 10.9 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383233, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Chimere Dike::WR4", "name": "Chimere Dike", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.7 }, "confidence": 0.39325000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 84, "seasonBaselineRank": 107, "weeklyRankDelta": 23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3122, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3298, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Brian Robinson::RB", "name": "Brian Robinson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 8.8 }, "confidence": 0.44780000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 45, "seasonBaselineRank": 46, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.546, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.546, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.9, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:arizona-cardinals", "name": "Arizona Cardinals D/ST", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": -2.2, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 30, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.390575, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Jalen Tolbert::WR2", "name": "Jalen Tolbert", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.40099999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 85, "seasonBaselineRank": 131, "weeklyRankDelta": 46, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Tre' Harris::WR3", "name": "Tre' Harris", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.7 }, "confidence": 0.34285, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 86, "seasonBaselineRank": 167, "weeklyRankDelta": 81, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Brock Wright::FB", "name": "Brock Wright", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.29350000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 41, "seasonBaselineRank": 47, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.06, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0898, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1281, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Dawson Knox::FB", "name": "Dawson Knox", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.4884999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 39, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1161, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1161, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Samaje Perine::RB", "name": "Samaje Perine", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 1.3, "high": 8.7 }, "confidence": 0.45299999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 46, "seasonBaselineRank": 55, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4358, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.3, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -8.5, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Pat Bryant::WR", "name": "Pat Bryant", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.5 }, "confidence": 0.37474999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 87, "seasonBaselineRank": 125, "weeklyRankDelta": 38, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Noah Gray::FB", "name": "Noah Gray", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.1 }, "confidence": 0.47225000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 43, "seasonBaselineRank": 68, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Tez Johnson::WR", "name": "Tez Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 2.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.35134999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 88, "seasonBaselineRank": 98, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Aaron Rodgers::QB", "name": "Aaron Rodgers", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 15.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 15.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.66, "planningRange": { "low": 11.6, "high": 20 }, "confidence": 0.4952999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5747, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5698, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.6 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 73.7, "defenseRating": 74, "matchupDelta": -0.3, "matchupPct": -0.2, "gameScriptPct": 1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::KaVontae Turpin::WR4", "name": "KaVontae Turpin", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.4445, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 89, "seasonBaselineRank": 102, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Elijah Moore::WR", "name": "Elijah Moore", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.3838, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 90, "seasonBaselineRank": 105, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Isaiah Bond::WR4", "name": "Isaiah Bond", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.32700000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 91, "seasonBaselineRank": 169, "weeklyRankDelta": 78, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Gunnar Helm::TE", "name": "Gunnar Helm", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 2.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6 }, "confidence": 0.3822, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 44, "seasonBaselineRank": 53, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Demarcus Robinson::WR4", "name": "Demarcus Robinson", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.1 }, "confidence": 0.49010000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 92, "seasonBaselineRank": 108, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Roman Wilson::WR3", "name": "Roman Wilson", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 93, "seasonBaselineRank": 129, "weeklyRankDelta": 36, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2435, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2873, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Terrance Ferguson::TE", "name": "Terrance Ferguson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 45, "seasonBaselineRank": 36, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Austin Hooper::TE", "name": "Austin Hooper", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.9 }, "confidence": 0.4036, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 46, "seasonBaselineRank": 49, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1243, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1243, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Tommy Tremble::TE", "name": "Tommy Tremble", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.4521, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 48, "seasonBaselineRank": 57, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1014, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1014, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4287, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4287, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Dylan Sampson::RB", "name": "Dylan Sampson", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.3543000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 49, "seasonBaselineRank": 69, "weeklyRankDelta": 20, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4831, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4761, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Justice Hill::RB", "name": "Justice Hill", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 4.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.3309000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 50, "seasonBaselineRank": 44, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5005, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5005, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 76.5, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Jahan Dotson::WR2", "name": "Jahan Dotson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.8 }, "confidence": 0.4016499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 97, "seasonBaselineRank": 171, "weeklyRankDelta": 74, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Jaylin Noel::WR3", "name": "Jaylin Noel", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.8 }, "confidence": 0.34440000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 99, "seasonBaselineRank": 161, "weeklyRankDelta": 62, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Kalif Raymond::WR3", "name": "Kalif Raymond", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.42349999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 100, "seasonBaselineRank": 147, "weeklyRankDelta": 47, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Davis Allen::TE", "name": "Davis Allen", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 1.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 50, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Elijah Higgins::TE", "name": "Elijah Higgins", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 1.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.3978, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 76, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Josh Whyle::TE", "name": "Josh Whyle", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 1.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.5 }, "confidence": 0.29705000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 52, "seasonBaselineRank": 72, "weeklyRankDelta": 20, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0999, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0999, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Corey Kiner::RB", "name": "Corey Kiner", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 92, "weeklyRankDelta": 41, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4558, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4558, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.4, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": -9.5, "matchupPct": -6.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Braelon Allen::RB", "name": "Braelon Allen", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.25765, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 52, "seasonBaselineRank": 66, "weeklyRankDelta": 14, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4389, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4562, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Treylon Burks::WR", "name": "Treylon Burks", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 2.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.3078, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 101, "seasonBaselineRank": 170, "weeklyRankDelta": 69, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Charlie Kolar::TE", "name": "Charlie Kolar", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 37, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Konata Mumpfield::WR4", "name": "Konata Mumpfield", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.6 }, "confidence": 0.25835, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 102, "seasonBaselineRank": 177, "weeklyRankDelta": 75, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Dyami Brown::WR", "name": "Dyami Brown", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.5 }, "confidence": 0.42415, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 103, "seasonBaselineRank": 143, "weeklyRankDelta": 40, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Mo Alie-Cox::FB", "name": "Mo Alie-Cox", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 1.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.3898999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 77, "weeklyRankDelta": 23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1405, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1405, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Jeremy Ruckert::TE", "name": "Jeremy Ruckert", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 1.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.4078, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 99, "weeklyRankDelta": 44, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9977, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1116, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1103, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Tank Bigsby::RB", "name": "Tank Bigsby", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 0.4, "high": 7.6 }, "confidence": 0.44814999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 53, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4441, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 66.4, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:new-orleans-saints", "name": "New Orleans Saints D/ST", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": -3.3, "high": 9.7 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357161, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Isaiah Williams::WR4", "name": "Isaiah Williams", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 1.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.5 }, "confidence": 0.32069999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 104, "seasonBaselineRank": 178, "weeklyRankDelta": 74, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Drew Sample::TE", "name": "Drew Sample", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.1 }, "confidence": 0.41335, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 56, "seasonBaselineRank": 80, "weeklyRankDelta": 24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1263, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1263, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Luke Schoonmaker::TE", "name": "Luke Schoonmaker", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.1 }, "confidence": 0.40159999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 57, "seasonBaselineRank": 103, "weeklyRankDelta": 46, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1267, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1267, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Kirk Cousins::QB", "name": "Kirk Cousins", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 14.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.42, "planningRange": { "low": 10.3, "high": 19.5 }, "confidence": 0.41075, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": 31, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5826, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5558, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.7, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 61.9, "defenseRating": 73, "matchupDelta": -11.1, "matchupPct": -7.8, "gameScriptPct": 0.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Emari Demercado::RB", "name": "Emari Demercado", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 3.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.427, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.427, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.8, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -8.3, "matchupPct": -5.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Kaleb Johnson::RB", "name": "Kaleb Johnson", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 3.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 61, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.473, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.473, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -2.5, "matchupPct": -1.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Jalen Brooks::WR4", "name": "Jalen Brooks", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 105, "seasonBaselineRank": 172, "weeklyRankDelta": 67, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Josh Oliver::TE", "name": "Josh Oliver", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.34445, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 58, "seasonBaselineRank": 46, "weeklyRankDelta": -12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1051, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1051, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Daniel Bellinger::TE", "name": "Daniel Bellinger", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.34060000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 59, "seasonBaselineRank": 54, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Mitchell Evans::TE", "name": "Mitchell Evans", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.32144999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 60, "seasonBaselineRank": 75, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1014, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1014, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Keaton Mitchell::RB", "name": "Keaton Mitchell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 56, "seasonBaselineRank": 70, "weeklyRankDelta": 14, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Kimani Vidal::RB", "name": "Kimani Vidal", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.4182499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 57, "seasonBaselineRank": 51, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Jordan Whittington::WR3", "name": "Jordan Whittington", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 1.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.38639999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 106, "seasonBaselineRank": 180, "weeklyRankDelta": 74, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Jonathan Mingo::WR", "name": "Jonathan Mingo", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 1.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.3 }, "confidence": 0.31514999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 107, "seasonBaselineRank": 174, "weeklyRankDelta": 67, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Darius Cooper::WR4", "name": "Darius Cooper", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 1.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 108, "seasonBaselineRank": 91, "weeklyRankDelta": -17, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Jackson Hawes::TE", "name": "Jackson Hawes", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 1.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.25645, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 61, "seasonBaselineRank": 63, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1161, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1161, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Johnny Mundt::FB", "name": "Johnny Mundt", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 1.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.31555, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 74, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1067, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1067, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Cam Ward::QB", "name": "Cam Ward", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "QB", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 14.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.45, "planningRange": { "low": 9.9, "high": 19.5 }, "confidence": 0.3458000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": 32, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.6013, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5824, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -9.1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 62.8, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -13.4, "matchupPct": -9.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jalen Royals::WR4", "name": "Jalen Royals", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 109, "seasonBaselineRank": 78, "weeklyRankDelta": -31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Jahdae Walker::WR", "name": "Jahdae Walker", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 110, "seasonBaselineRank": 112, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Jaylin Lane::WR", "name": "Jaylin Lane", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.1 }, "confidence": 0.3299, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 111, "seasonBaselineRank": 179, "weeklyRankDelta": 68, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Ian Thomas::TE", "name": "Ian Thomas", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 63, "seasonBaselineRank": 94, "weeklyRankDelta": 31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9656, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1765, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1481, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Adam Trautman::FB", "name": "Adam Trautman", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.8 }, "confidence": 0.42285, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 64, "seasonBaselineRank": 71, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Devin Singletary::RB", "name": "Devin Singletary", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.4679999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 58, "seasonBaselineRank": 48, "weeklyRankDelta": -10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.2, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Kyle Williams::WR", "name": "Kyle Williams", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.31589999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 112, "seasonBaselineRank": 140, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jimmy Horn Jr.::WR", "name": "Jimmy Horn Jr.", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 113, "seasonBaselineRank": 128, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Deshaun Watson::QB", "name": "Deshaun Watson", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 14.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.96, "planningRange": { "low": 9.3, "high": 19.7 }, "confidence": 0.25225000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 30, "seasonBaselineRank": 30, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.57, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5323, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 64.8, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -10.4, "matchupPct": -7.3, "gameScriptPct": -2.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -9.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Kendre Miller::RB", "name": "Kendre Miller", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 59, "seasonBaselineRank": 78, "weeklyRankDelta": 19, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.4, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Hunter Long::FB", "name": "Hunter Long", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 81, "weeklyRankDelta": 14, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::John Bates::FB", "name": "John Bates", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 68, "seasonBaselineRank": 119, "weeklyRankDelta": 51, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Ray Davis::RB", "name": "Ray Davis", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.4612, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 68, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4866, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4866, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": 1.7, "matchupPct": 1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Malachi Corley::WR", "name": "Malachi Corley", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 116, "seasonBaselineRank": 149, "weeklyRankDelta": 33, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Bo Melton::WR4", "name": "Bo Melton", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.2613, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 117, "seasonBaselineRank": 37, "weeklyRankDelta": -80, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2895, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2895, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Charlie Woerner::FB", "name": "Charlie Woerner", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 0.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 69, "seasonBaselineRank": 42, "weeklyRankDelta": -27, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1243, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1243, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Eric Saubert::TE", "name": "Eric Saubert", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 0.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 70, "seasonBaselineRank": 92, "weeklyRankDelta": 22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Brycen Tremayne::WR", "name": "Brycen Tremayne", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 118, "seasonBaselineRank": 159, "weeklyRankDelta": 41, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Brevyn Spann-Ford::TE", "name": "Brevyn Spann-Ford", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.29435, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 71, "seasonBaselineRank": 87, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1267, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1267, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Quintin Morris::TE", "name": "Quintin Morris", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 72, "seasonBaselineRank": 69, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0998, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0998, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Tylan Wallace::WR", "name": "Tylan Wallace", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 119, "seasonBaselineRank": 168, "weeklyRankDelta": 49, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Payne Durham::TE", "name": "Payne Durham", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 0.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 74, "seasonBaselineRank": 65, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0362, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0835, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0997, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Durham Smythe::FB", "name": "Durham Smythe", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 0.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 75, "seasonBaselineRank": 51, "weeklyRankDelta": -24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1324, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1324, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Tua Tagovailoa::QB", "name": "Tua Tagovailoa", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 14, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.15, "planningRange": { "low": 9.7, "high": 18.3 }, "confidence": 0.4621, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5333, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5333, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.9, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::DJ Giddens::RB", "name": "DJ Giddens", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 63, "seasonBaselineRank": 57, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.455, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.455, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 79.8, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": 3.5, "matchupPct": 2.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Ashton Dulin::WR4", "name": "Ashton Dulin", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 0.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.4 }, "confidence": 0.2573, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 120, "seasonBaselineRank": 87, "weeklyRankDelta": -33, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Elijah Arroyo::TE", "name": "Elijah Arroyo", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.30450000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 76, "seasonBaselineRank": 118, "weeklyRankDelta": 42, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Andrew Ogletree::TE", "name": "Andrew Ogletree", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 77, "seasonBaselineRank": 60, "weeklyRankDelta": -17, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1405, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1405, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Blake Whiteheart::TE", "name": "Blake Whiteheart", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 110, "weeklyRankDelta": 32, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9715, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1726, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1494, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Brashard Smith::RB", "name": "Brashard Smith", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.5 }, "confidence": 0.36500000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 64, "seasonBaselineRank": 101, "weeklyRankDelta": 37, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4191, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4191, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 69.7, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -5.7, "matchupPct": -4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ameer Abdullah::RB", "name": "Ameer Abdullah", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.32814999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 65, "seasonBaselineRank": 43, "weeklyRankDelta": -22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4287, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4287, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.5, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -8.4, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 2.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Chris Brooks::RB", "name": "Chris Brooks", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.25, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.2769, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 66, "seasonBaselineRank": 81, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.473, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.473, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -2.5, "matchupPct": -1.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Ryan Miller::WR", "name": "Ryan Miller", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 121, "seasonBaselineRank": 150, "weeklyRankDelta": 29, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::KeAndre Lambert-Smith::WR", "name": "KeAndre Lambert-Smith", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 122, "seasonBaselineRank": 148, "weeklyRankDelta": 26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jared Wiley::TE", "name": "Jared Wiley", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 79, "seasonBaselineRank": 97, "weeklyRankDelta": 18, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Ben Yurosek::TE", "name": "Ben Yurosek", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 80, "seasonBaselineRank": 109, "weeklyRankDelta": 29, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1051, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1051, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Robert Tonyan::TE", "name": "Robert Tonyan", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 116, "weeklyRankDelta": 35, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9774, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1578, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1407, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jonathon Brooks::RB", "name": "Jonathon Brooks", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 85, "weeklyRankDelta": 18, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4949, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4949, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.7, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Devin Duvernay::WR", "name": "Devin Duvernay", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 123, "seasonBaselineRank": 110, "weeklyRankDelta": -13, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Simi Fehoko::WR", "name": "Simi Fehoko", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 124, "seasonBaselineRank": 165, "weeklyRankDelta": 41, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Ben Skowronek::WR", "name": "Ben Skowronek", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 125, "seasonBaselineRank": 153, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2435, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2873, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Colson Yankoff::TE", "name": "Colson Yankoff", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 0.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.01, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 82, "seasonBaselineRank": 112, "weeklyRankDelta": 30, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Chris Blair::WR", "name": "Chris Blair", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 126, "seasonBaselineRank": 118, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Derius Davis::WR", "name": "Derius Davis", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 127, "seasonBaselineRank": 155, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Efton Chism III::WR", "name": "Efton Chism III", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 128, "seasonBaselineRank": 157, "weeklyRankDelta": 29, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dareke Young::WR", "name": "Dareke Young", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 129, "seasonBaselineRank": 126, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kameron Johnson::WR", "name": "Kameron Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 130, "seasonBaselineRank": 162, "weeklyRankDelta": 32, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Skyy Moore::WR", "name": "Skyy Moore", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 0.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.8 }, "confidence": 0.28145000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 131, "seasonBaselineRank": 166, "weeklyRankDelta": 35, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2895, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2895, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Luke Farrell::TE", "name": "Luke Farrell", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.28275, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 83, "seasonBaselineRank": 84, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1232, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1232, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Nick Kallerup::TE", "name": "Nick Kallerup", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 84, "seasonBaselineRank": 106, "weeklyRankDelta": 22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Cameron Latu::TE", "name": "Cameron Latu", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 85, "seasonBaselineRank": 89, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.9, "matchupDelta": -5.9, "matchupPct": -4.1, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Tutu Atwell::WR", "name": "Tutu Atwell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.35195000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 135, "seasonBaselineRank": 141, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Xavier Smith::WR", "name": "Xavier Smith", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.3279000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 136, "seasonBaselineRank": 182, "weeklyRankDelta": 46, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jordan Watkins::WR", "name": "Jordan Watkins", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 137, "seasonBaselineRank": 146, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jacob Cowing::WR", "name": "Jacob Cowing", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 138, "seasonBaselineRank": 145, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Laquon Treadwell::WR", "name": "Laquon Treadwell", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 139, "seasonBaselineRank": 121, "weeklyRankDelta": -18, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::LaJohntay Wester::WR", "name": "LaJohntay Wester", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 140, "seasonBaselineRank": 163, "weeklyRankDelta": 23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Tim Patrick::WR", "name": "Tim Patrick", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.36685, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 141, "seasonBaselineRank": 173, "weeklyRankDelta": 32, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Arian Smith::WR", "name": "Arian Smith", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 142, "seasonBaselineRank": 152, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Odell Beckham Jr.::WR4", "name": "Odell Beckham Jr.", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 143, "seasonBaselineRank": 124, "weeklyRankDelta": -19, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2903, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2948, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::British Brooks::RB", "name": "British Brooks", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 75, "seasonBaselineRank": 91, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tahj Brooks::RB", "name": "Tahj Brooks", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 76, "seasonBaselineRank": 74, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4358, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.3, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -8.5, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Rasheen Ali::RB", "name": "Rasheen Ali", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 77, "seasonBaselineRank": 79, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5005, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5005, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 76.5, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Ronnie Rivers::RB", "name": "Ronnie Rivers", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "RB", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 89, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4487, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4487, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 76.3, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 2.1, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Roschon Johnson::RB", "name": "Roschon Johnson", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.3169, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 79, "seasonBaselineRank": 73, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4439, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4439, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Raheim Sanders::RB", "name": "Raheim Sanders", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 80, "seasonBaselineRank": 88, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4831, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4761, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 64.8, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -10.4, "matchupPct": -7.3, "gameScriptPct": -2.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -9.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Ollie Gordon II::RB", "name": "Ollie Gordon II", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 0.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 100, "weeklyRankDelta": 19, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.528, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4911, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Kene Nwangwu::RB", "name": "Kene Nwangwu", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 82, "seasonBaselineRank": 97, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4389, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4562, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dylan Laube::RB", "name": "Dylan Laube", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 83, "seasonBaselineRank": 76, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4548, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4676, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.5, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 2.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 5.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Christian McCaffrey::RB", "name": "Christian McCaffrey", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 19.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 21.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.15, "planningRange": { "low": 14.8, "high": 24.6 }, "confidence": 0.4588499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 2, "seasonBaselineRank": 2, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 10.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "REPORTED_MANAGED", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5156, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5156, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 78, "matchupDelta": 0.3, "matchupPct": 0.2, "gameScriptPct": -1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Ashton Jeanty::RB", "name": "Ashton Jeanty", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 18.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.41, "planningRange": { "low": 13.7, "high": 23.5 }, "confidence": 0.41269999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 9.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 79.8, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": 3.5, "matchupPct": 2.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Bijan Robinson::RB", "name": "Bijan Robinson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 18.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.91, "planningRange": { "low": 13.8, "high": 22.8 }, "confidence": 0.4751, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": 4, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.546, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.546, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 76.5, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Amon-Ra St. Brown::WR1", "name": "Amon-Ra St. Brown", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 14.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.57, "planningRange": { "low": 10.4, "high": 18.2 }, "confidence": 0.52295, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": 3, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3024, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": -0.1 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::De'Von Achane::RB", "name": "De'Von Achane", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 15.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 15.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.9, "planningRange": { "low": 11.4, "high": 20 }, "confidence": 0.46989999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 6.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.528, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4911, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::James Cook III::RB", "name": "James Cook III", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 14.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.77, "planningRange": { "low": 10.8, "high": 18.6 }, "confidence": 0.5248999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": 7, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 5.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4866, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4866, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 66.4, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Rashee Rice::WR1", "name": "Rashee Rice", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 12.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.44, "planningRange": { "low": 8.3, "high": 16.7 }, "confidence": 0.4280499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": 5, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": -0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Chris Olave::WR1", "name": "Chris Olave", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 12.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.33, "planningRange": { "low": 8.6, "high": 16 }, "confidence": 0.5343000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3353, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3353, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Nico Collins::WR1", "name": "Nico Collins", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 12.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.46, "planningRange": { "low": 8.3, "high": 16.1 }, "confidence": 0.50495, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 7, "seasonBaselineRank": 8, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 4.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::CeeDee Lamb::WR1", "name": "CeeDee Lamb", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 11.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 8, "high": 15.8 }, "confidence": 0.49650000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 7, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 4.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::D'Andre Swift::RB", "name": "D'Andre Swift", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 13.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 13.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 13.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.62, "planningRange": { "low": 9.6, "high": 17.2 }, "confidence": 0.5236, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": 13, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 4.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4439, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4439, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Breece Hall::RB", "name": "Breece Hall", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 13.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 13.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 13.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.65, "planningRange": { "low": 9.2, "high": 17.2 }, "confidence": 0.4922999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": 17, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 4.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4389, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4562, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::A.J. Brown::WR1", "name": "A.J. Brown", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 11.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 7.8, "high": 15.2 }, "confidence": 0.5388499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 11, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Zay Flowers::WR1", "name": "Zay Flowers", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 11.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.47, "planningRange": { "low": 7.6, "high": 15.4 }, "confidence": 0.49405000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": 15, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 4.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2903, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2948, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Quinshon Judkins::RB", "name": "Quinshon Judkins", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 12.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.68, "planningRange": { "low": 8.1, "high": 16.7 }, "confidence": 0.4160500000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4831, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4761, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 64.8, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -10.4, "matchupPct": -7.3, "gameScriptPct": -2.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -9.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Rico Dowdle::RB", "name": "Rico Dowdle", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 12.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.7, "planningRange": { "low": 8.3, "high": 16.3 }, "confidence": 0.48164999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5068, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4729, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 73.7, "defenseRating": 74, "matchupDelta": -0.3, "matchupPct": -0.2, "gameScriptPct": 1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Davante Adams::WR2", "name": "Davante Adams", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 10.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 6.7, "high": 14.3 }, "confidence": 0.49365, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3595, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3595, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Jameson Williams::WR2", "name": "Jameson Williams", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 9.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 6.2, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.5138499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 17, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3024, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::DK Metcalf::WR1", "name": "DK Metcalf", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 9.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 6, "high": 13.8 }, "confidence": 0.47384999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": 22, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 69.7, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -5.7, "matchupPct": -4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Aaron Jones Sr.::RB", "name": "Aaron Jones Sr.", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 11.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.63, "planningRange": { "low": 7.3, "high": 14.9 }, "confidence": 0.50435, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": 31, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4732, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4732, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.2, "defenseRating": 74.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::DeVonta Smith::WR1", "name": "DeVonta Smith", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 9.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 5.6, "high": 13.2 }, "confidence": 0.50405, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": 21, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Michael Pittman Jr.::WR2", "name": "Michael Pittman Jr.", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 9.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.36, "planningRange": { "low": 5.3, "high": 12.9 }, "confidence": 0.48164999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2435, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2873, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Tyler Warren::TE", "name": "Tyler Warren", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.32, "planningRange": { "low": 5.1, "high": 12.9 }, "confidence": 0.46010000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": 9, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -2.5, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 6.5 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.5, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 2.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 5.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Alvin Kamara::RB", "name": "Alvin Kamara", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 10.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.48, "planningRange": { "low": 6.2, "high": 14.8 }, "confidence": 0.366444, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 29, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 1.4, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3674, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3674, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Alec Pierce::WR1", "name": "Alec Pierce", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 8.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.29, "planningRange": { "low": 5.1, "high": 12.5 }, "confidence": 0.5056, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 31, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Brian Thomas Jr.::WR1", "name": "Brian Thomas Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 8.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.42, "planningRange": { "low": 5, "high": 12.6 }, "confidence": 0.49324999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": 32, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::J.K. Dobbins::RB", "name": "J.K. Dobbins", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 10.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 6.5, "high": 14.3 }, "confidence": 0.4625, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 1.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4238, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4238, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 72.2, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -3, "matchupPct": -2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Jake Bates::K", "name": "Jake Bates", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "K", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 8.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 4.5, "high": 12.5 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 1, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.640518, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:tennessee-titans", "name": "Tennessee Titans D/ST", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DST", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 14.7 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 2, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.543961, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Malik Willis::QB", "name": "Malik Willis", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 19.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.48, "planningRange": { "low": 13.9, "high": 25.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5258, "coachingUsageExpected": 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.7, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Josh Allen::QB", "name": "Josh Allen", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 19.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.63, "planningRange": { "low": 16, "high": 23.8 }, "confidence": 0.5430999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": 1, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.475, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.475, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jalen Hurts::QB", "name": "Jalen Hurts", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 19.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.94, "planningRange": { "low": 15.6, "high": 23.8 }, "confidence": 0.52225, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": 2, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5097, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5097, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:pittsburgh-steelers", "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 7.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 14.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.572583, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Travis Etienne Jr.::RB", "name": "Travis Etienne Jr.", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 9.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 6.2, "high": 13.4 }, "confidence": 0.54925, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": 18, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3674, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3674, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.9 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.8, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -8.3, "matchupPct": -5.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Christian Watson::WR1", "name": "Christian Watson", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 4.3, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.4849, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 37, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2895, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2895, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Cameron Dicker::K", "name": "Cameron Dicker", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607046, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Courtland Sutton::WR2", "name": "Courtland Sutton", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 4.2, "high": 11.6 }, "confidence": 0.52035, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 38, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": -19, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Chris Godwin Jr.::WR2", "name": "Chris Godwin Jr.", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.29, "planningRange": { "low": 4, "high": 11.8 }, "confidence": 0.4397499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 39, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Harold Fannin Jr.::TE", "name": "Harold Fannin Jr.", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.43360000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": 8, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9715, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1726, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1494, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Evan McPherson::K", "name": "Evan McPherson", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "K", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.8, "high": 11.8 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.549699, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Josh Downs::WR2", "name": "Josh Downs", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 4.1, "high": 11.5 }, "confidence": 0.51145, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 40, "seasonBaselineRank": 51, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Kyle Pitts Sr.::TE", "name": "Kyle Pitts Sr.", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.5 }, "confidence": 0.47054999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": 10, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1243, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1243, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Ka'imi Fairbairn::K", "name": "Ka'imi Fairbairn", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "K", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.7, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.541817, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jake Elliott::K", "name": "Jake Elliott", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "K", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.7, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614399, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Drake Maye::QB", "name": "Drake Maye", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 19.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.61, "planningRange": { "low": 15, "high": 23.4 }, "confidence": 0.4823, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.504, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.504, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.4, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": -9.5, "matchupPct": -6.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::C.J. Stroud::QB", "name": "C.J. 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6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524342, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:kansas-city-chiefs", "name": "Kansas City Chiefs D/ST", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.52648, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:denver-broncos", "name": "Denver Broncos D/ST", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 12, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471067, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Joe Burrow::QB", "name": "Joe Burrow", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 18.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.65, "planningRange": { "low": 14.6, "high": 23 }, "confidence": 0.48550000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": 9, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.6268, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.6268, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.3, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -8.5, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Matt Gay::K", "name": "Matt Gay", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "K", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.2, "high": 11.2 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.536825, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:detroit-lions", "name": "Detroit Lions D/ST", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "DST", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 13.5 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.640518, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Cooper Kupp::WR3", "name": "Cooper Kupp", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 3.5, "high": 10.9 }, "confidence": 0.49300000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 45, "seasonBaselineRank": 50, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2935, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2935, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Hunter Henry::TE", "name": "Hunter Henry", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 3.5, "high": 10.7 }, "confidence": 0.546, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Cade Otton::TE", "name": "Cade Otton", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 3.4, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.5105999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": 21, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0362, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0835, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0997, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Dallas Goedert::TE", "name": "Dallas Goedert", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.29, "planningRange": { "low": 3.4, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.4865000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1067, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1067, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Chase McLaughlin::K", "name": "Chase McLaughlin", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.1, "high": 11.1 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.447861, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kenny Gainwell::RB", "name": "Kenny Gainwell", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 8.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 5, "high": 12.6 }, "confidence": 0.49305, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 35, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4748, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4858, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.9, "matchupDelta": -5.9, "matchupPct": -4.1, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Romeo Doubs::WR2", "name": "Romeo Doubs", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 3.5, "high": 10.7 }, "confidence": 0.53625, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 46, "seasonBaselineRank": 49, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Eddy Pineiro::K", "name": "Eddy Pineiro", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427413, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Tyler Bass::K", "name": "Tyler Bass", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "K", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.455738, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Will Reichard::K", "name": "Will Reichard", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "K", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524342, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:los-angeles-rams", "name": "Los Angeles Rams D/ST", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DST", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 6.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 13.3 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.570163, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Baker Mayfield::QB", "name": "Baker Mayfield", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 18.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.75, "planningRange": { "low": 14.6, "high": 22.4 }, "confidence": 0.53855, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": 16, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5417, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5399, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.3 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.9, "matchupDelta": -5.9, "matchupPct": -4.1, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:las-vegas-raiders", "name": "Las Vegas Raiders D/ST", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 13.2 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.536825, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:green-bay-packers", "name": "Green Bay Packers D/ST", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 13.2 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473205, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Tre Tucker::WR1", "name": "Tre Tucker", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 6.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.4504000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 50, "seasonBaselineRank": 61, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Jake Ferguson::TE", "name": "Jake Ferguson", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 6.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 3.1, "high": 10.3 }, "confidence": 0.5127499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1267, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1267, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:houston-texans", "name": "Houston Texans D/ST", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 13 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.541817, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Bo Nix::QB", "name": "Bo Nix", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 18.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.57, "planningRange": { "low": 13.8, "high": 22.6 }, "confidence": 0.4566499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5734, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5734, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -0.7 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 72.2, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -3, "matchupPct": -2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Cairo Santos::K", "name": "Cairo Santos", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "K", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502201, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Riley Patterson::K", "name": "Riley Patterson", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "K", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.460727, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Trey Smack::K", "name": "Trey Smack", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473205, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Daniel Jones::QB", "name": "Daniel Jones", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 18.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.61, "planningRange": { "low": 13.9, "high": 22.3 }, "confidence": 0.48805, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5531, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5531, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.4 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 79.8, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": 3.5, "matchupPct": 2.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Rashid Shaheed::WR2", "name": "Rashid Shaheed", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.28, "planningRange": { "low": 2.9, "high": 10.3 }, "confidence": 0.48974999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2935, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2935, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Brenton Strange::TE", "name": "Brenton Strange", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 2.8, "high": 10.2 }, "confidence": 0.46075, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 20, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0998, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0998, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Andy Borregales::K", "name": "Andy Borregales", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "K", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 72.2, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -3, "matchupPct": -2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Kayshon Boutte::WR4", "name": "Kayshon Boutte", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 6.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 2.7, "high": 10.1 }, "confidence": 0.46335000000000015, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 54, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Calvin Ridley::WR3", "name": "Calvin Ridley", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 6.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 10.3 }, "confidence": 0.40234999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 59, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3122, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3298, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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"coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Greg Dulcich::TE", "name": "Greg Dulcich", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 2.1, "high": 10.3 }, "confidence": 0.26514999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 30, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0046, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.112, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Nick Folk::K", "name": "Nick Folk", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "K", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.2, "high": 10.2 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.424996, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Caleb Williams::QB", "name": "Caleb Williams", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 17.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.48, "planningRange": { "low": 13.3, "high": 22.1 }, "confidence": 0.4553499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": 13, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.532, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.532, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Mason Taylor::TE", "name": "Mason Taylor", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 6.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 2.2, "high": 10 }, "confidence": 0.37855000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": 42, "weeklyRankDelta": 23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9977, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1116, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1103, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Drew Stevens::K", "name": "Drew Stevens", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "K", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 6.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.1, "high": 10.1 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 30, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383233, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", 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"state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.424996, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:cleveland-browns", "name": "Cleveland Browns D/ST", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": -0.6, "high": 12.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", 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"Seattle Seahawks::Emanuel Wilson::RB", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.74, "planningRange": { "low": 4, "high": 11.6 }, "confidence": 0.47284999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 34, "seasonBaselineRank": 72, "weeklyRankDelta": 38, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -1.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:dallas-cowboys", "name": "Dallas Cowboys D/ST", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "DST", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": -1, "high": 12 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.494631, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Tyler Shough::QB", "name": "Tyler Shough", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 17.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.3, "planningRange": { "low": 12.3, "high": 22.1 }, "confidence": 0.35230000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 24, "seasonBaselineRank": 25, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.576, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.576, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.6, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Mike Gesicki::FB", "name": "Mike Gesicki", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 5.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 2, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.48224999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": 34, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1263, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1263, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Keon Coleman::WR3", "name": "Keon Coleman", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 5.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 1.9, "high": 9.3 }, "confidence": 0.4573, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 61, "seasonBaselineRank": 57, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Pat Freiermuth::TE", "name": "Pat Freiermuth", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 5.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 1.8, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.4679999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 24, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9774, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1578, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1407, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -2 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.2, "defenseRating": 74.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Jalen McMillan::WR3", "name": "Jalen McMillan", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 5.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 1.5, "high": 9.5 }, "confidence": 0.287, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 46, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jalen Coker::WR2", "name": "Jalen Coker", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 5.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 9.3 }, "confidence": 0.41439999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 63, "seasonBaselineRank": 65, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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"coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Tyjae Spears::RB", "name": "Tyjae Spears", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 7.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 3.2, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.4316000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 39, "seasonBaselineRank": 43, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 62.8, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -13.4, "matchupPct": -9.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Mack Hollins::WR4", "name": "Mack Hollins", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 1.8, "high": 9 }, "confidence": 0.5174000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 64, "seasonBaselineRank": 86, "weeklyRankDelta": 22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:new-york-giants", "name": "New York Giants D/ST", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 4.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": -1.4, "high": 11.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502912, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Troy Franklin::WR3", "name": "Troy Franklin", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 5.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.50215, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 65, "seasonBaselineRank": 62, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:cincinnati-bengals", "name": "Cincinnati Bengals D/ST", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": -1.5, "high": 11.5 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.549699, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Elic Ayomanor::WR", "name": "Elic Ayomanor", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 5.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 9 }, "confidence": 0.39585000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 66, "seasonBaselineRank": 91, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3122, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3298, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:tampa-bay-buccaneers", "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": -1.6, "high": 11.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.447861, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:indianapolis-colts", "name": "Indianapolis Colts D/ST", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": -1.6, "high": 11.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51027, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Marquise Brown::WR", "name": "Marquise Brown", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 8.8 }, "confidence": 0.441, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 55, "weeklyRankDelta": -12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::AJ Barner::TE", "name": "AJ Barner", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 8.6 }, "confidence": 0.47284999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": 23, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Isaiah Likely::TE", "name": "Isaiah Likely", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 1.3, "high": 8.7 }, "confidence": 0.42250000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 36, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0251, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0984, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1114, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::T.J. Hockenson::TE", "name": "T.J. Hockenson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 8.6 }, "confidence": 0.5056499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1051, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1051, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Evan Engram::TE", "name": "Evan Engram", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 4.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 1.3, "high": 8.5 }, "confidence": 0.50735, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Xavier Legette::WR3", "name": "Xavier Legette", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 4.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 1.3, "high": 8.5 }, "confidence": 0.48915, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 69, "seasonBaselineRank": 104, "weeklyRankDelta": 35, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 76.3, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 2.1, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Najee Harris::RB", "name": "Najee Harris", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 10.5 }, "confidence": 0.3314999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 41, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": -15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.2, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Chris Rodriguez Jr.::RB", "name": "Chris Rodriguez Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 6.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.42, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 10.3 }, "confidence": 0.38795, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4287, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4287, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.5, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -8.4, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 2.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Malik Washington::WR1", "name": "Malik Washington", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 4.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 1, "high": 8.4 }, "confidence": 0.41984999999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 70, "seasonBaselineRank": 111, "weeklyRankDelta": 41, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Matthew Golden::WR3", "name": "Matthew Golden", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 4.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 8.5 }, "confidence": 0.36984999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 71, "seasonBaselineRank": 131, "weeklyRankDelta": 60, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2895, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2895, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.6, "matchupDelta": -5.6, "matchupPct": -3.9, "gameScriptPct": -2.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Olamide Zaccheaus::WR3", "name": "Olamide Zaccheaus", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 4.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 8.3 }, "confidence": 0.43544999999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 72, "seasonBaselineRank": 109, "weeklyRankDelta": 37, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Dontayvion Wicks::WR2", "name": "Dontayvion Wicks", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 4.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 1, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.46895000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 73, "seasonBaselineRank": 101, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Oronde Gadsden II::TE", "name": "Oronde Gadsden II", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.4137, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": -13, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:arizona-cardinals", "name": "Arizona Cardinals D/ST", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": -2.2, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 30, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.390575, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::DeMario Douglas::WR3", "name": "DeMario Douglas", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 1, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.52325, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 74, "seasonBaselineRank": 90, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jalen Nailor::WR2", "name": "Jalen Nailor", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.40945, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 75, "seasonBaselineRank": 103, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Rashod Bateman::WR2", "name": "Rashod Bateman", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.4388, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 76, "seasonBaselineRank": 106, "weeklyRankDelta": 30, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Adonai Mitchell::WR2", "name": "Adonai Mitchell", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.46044999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 77, "seasonBaselineRank": 132, "weeklyRankDelta": 55, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::John Metchie III::WR4", "name": "John Metchie III", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.4482, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 133, "weeklyRankDelta": 55, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Xavier Hutchinson::WR2", "name": "Xavier Hutchinson", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.4594499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 79, "seasonBaselineRank": 129, "weeklyRankDelta": 50, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jake Tonges::TE", "name": "Jake Tonges", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 4.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.39845, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 33, "seasonBaselineRank": 15, "weeklyRankDelta": -18, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1232, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1232, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Ryan Flournoy::WR3", "name": "Ryan Flournoy", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 7.9 }, "confidence": 0.40679999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 70, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Chimere Dike::WR4", "name": "Chimere Dike", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 7.9 }, "confidence": 0.39325000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 82, "seasonBaselineRank": 99, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3122, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3298, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Bryce Young::QB", "name": "Bryce Young", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 15.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 15.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.58, "planningRange": { "low": 11.4, "high": 19.8 }, "confidence": 0.45339999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": 27, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5277, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5277, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.7, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Josh Palmer::WR", "name": "Josh Palmer", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 4.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.45665000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 83, "seasonBaselineRank": 113, "weeklyRankDelta": 30, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2591, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2591, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Tyler Conklin::TE", "name": "Tyler Conklin", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.37215, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 38, "seasonBaselineRank": 27, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.06, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0898, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1281, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Chig Okonkwo::TE", "name": "Chig Okonkwo", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0.4, "high": 7.6 }, "confidence": 0.48524999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 39, "seasonBaselineRank": 32, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Tyler Allgeier::RB", "name": "Tyler Allgeier", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 5.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.37, "planningRange": { "low": 2, "high": 9.4 }, "confidence": 0.4706000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 44, "seasonBaselineRank": 45, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4099, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4341, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.6, "matchupDelta": -5.6, "matchupPct": -3.9, "gameScriptPct": -2.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Tory Horton::WR4", "name": "Tory Horton", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0.1, "high": 7.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 84, "seasonBaselineRank": 64, "weeklyRankDelta": -20, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.4, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::David Njoku::TE", "name": "David Njoku", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 3.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 7.5 }, "confidence": 0.45920000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 40, "seasonBaselineRank": 35, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.9, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Jalen Tolbert::WR2", "name": "Jalen Tolbert", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 3.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.40099999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 87, "seasonBaselineRank": 130, "weeklyRankDelta": 43, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Brock Wright::FB", "name": "Brock Wright", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.29350000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 41, "seasonBaselineRank": 49, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.06, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0898, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1281, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Dawson Knox::FB", "name": "Dawson Knox", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.4884999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1161, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1161, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Justice Hill::RB", "name": "Justice Hill", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 5.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.3309000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 48, "seasonBaselineRank": 42, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5005, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5005, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 76.5, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Tez Johnson::WR", "name": "Tez Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.3 }, "confidence": 0.35134999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 88, "seasonBaselineRank": 100, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Noah Gray::FB", "name": "Noah Gray", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.47225000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 43, "seasonBaselineRank": 66, "weeklyRankDelta": 23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Elijah Moore::WR", "name": "Elijah Moore", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.3838, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 89, "seasonBaselineRank": 92, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Isaiah Bond::WR4", "name": "Isaiah Bond", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.32700000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 90, "seasonBaselineRank": 171, "weeklyRankDelta": 81, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Gunnar Helm::TE", "name": "Gunnar Helm", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 3.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.3822, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 44, "seasonBaselineRank": 50, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:new-orleans-saints", "name": "New Orleans Saints D/ST", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": -3.3, "high": 9.7 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357161, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Kirk Cousins::QB", "name": "Kirk Cousins", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 14.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.42, "planningRange": { "low": 10.3, "high": 19.5 }, "confidence": 0.41075, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": 31, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5826, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5558, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.7, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 61.9, "defenseRating": 73, "matchupDelta": -11.1, "matchupPct": -7.8, "gameScriptPct": 0.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::KaVontae Turpin::WR4", "name": "KaVontae Turpin", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 3.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.4445, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 91, "seasonBaselineRank": 108, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Demarcus Robinson::WR4", "name": "Demarcus Robinson", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.49010000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 92, "seasonBaselineRank": 110, "weeklyRankDelta": 18, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Marvin Mims Jr.::WR4", "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.4884999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 93, "seasonBaselineRank": 105, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Lil'Jordan Humphrey::WR", "name": "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.37215, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 94, "seasonBaselineRank": 134, "weeklyRankDelta": 40, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Austin Hooper::TE", "name": "Austin Hooper", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.4036, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 45, "seasonBaselineRank": 51, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1243, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1243, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Terrance Ferguson::TE", "name": "Terrance Ferguson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 48, "seasonBaselineRank": 45, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.4, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Braelon Allen::RB", "name": "Braelon Allen", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 4.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 0.7, "high": 8.5 }, "confidence": 0.25765, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 68, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4389, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4562, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Jahan Dotson::WR2", "name": "Jahan Dotson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.5 }, "confidence": 0.4016499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 97, "seasonBaselineRank": 170, "weeklyRankDelta": 73, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Jaylin Noel::WR3", "name": "Jaylin Noel", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.34440000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 98, "seasonBaselineRank": 158, "weeklyRankDelta": 60, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Kalif Raymond::WR3", "name": "Kalif Raymond", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 2.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.42349999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 99, "seasonBaselineRank": 142, "weeklyRankDelta": 43, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Emari Demercado::RB", "name": "Emari Demercado", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 8.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 52, "seasonBaselineRank": 50, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.427, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.427, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.8, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -8.3, "matchupPct": -5.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Isaac TeSlaa::WR3", "name": "Isaac TeSlaa", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.3065, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 100, "seasonBaselineRank": 102, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3024, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Dyami Brown::WR", "name": "Dyami Brown", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.42415, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 101, "seasonBaselineRank": 140, "weeklyRankDelta": 39, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Treylon Burks::WR", "name": "Treylon Burks", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.3078, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 102, "seasonBaselineRank": 168, "weeklyRankDelta": 66, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Elijah Higgins::TE", "name": "Elijah Higgins", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.3978, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 49, "seasonBaselineRank": 76, "weeklyRankDelta": 27, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Foster Moreau::FB", "name": "Foster Moreau", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.3197, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 50, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.123, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.123, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Konata Mumpfield::WR4", "name": "Konata Mumpfield", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.25835, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 103, "seasonBaselineRank": 179, "weeklyRankDelta": 76, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Davis Allen::TE", "name": "Davis Allen", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 2.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 54, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Josh Whyle::TE", "name": "Josh Whyle", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 2.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.29705000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 52, "seasonBaselineRank": 68, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0999, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0999, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Tua Tagovailoa::QB", "name": "Tua Tagovailoa", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 14, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.15, "planningRange": { "low": 9.7, "high": 18.3 }, "confidence": 0.4621, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5333, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5333, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.9, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Keaton Mitchell::RB", "name": "Keaton Mitchell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 70, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Kimani Vidal::RB", "name": "Kimani Vidal", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 7.9 }, "confidence": 0.4182499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Corey Kiner::RB", "name": "Corey Kiner", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 94, "weeklyRankDelta": 39, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4558, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4558, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.4, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": -9.5, "matchupPct": -6.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Isaiah Williams::WR4", "name": "Isaiah Williams", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 2.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.1 }, "confidence": 0.32069999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 104, "seasonBaselineRank": 175, "weeklyRankDelta": 71, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Jeremy Ruckert::TE", "name": "Jeremy Ruckert", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 2.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6 }, "confidence": 0.4078, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 80, "weeklyRankDelta": 27, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9977, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1116, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1103, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Tank Bigsby::RB", "name": "Tank Bigsby", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 4.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.44814999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 56, "seasonBaselineRank": 60, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4441, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 66.4, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Mo Alie-Cox::FB", "name": "Mo Alie-Cox", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.9 }, "confidence": 0.3898999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 78, "weeklyRankDelta": 24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1405, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1405, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Charlie Kolar::TE", "name": "Charlie Kolar", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 39, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Ty Johnson::RB", "name": "Ty Johnson", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 7.8 }, "confidence": 0.27264799999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 57, "seasonBaselineRank": 54, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": 1.7, "matchupPct": 1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Devin Singletary::RB", "name": "Devin Singletary", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0.4, "high": 7.6 }, "confidence": 0.4679999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 58, "seasonBaselineRank": 48, "weeklyRankDelta": -10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -2.5, "matchupPct": -1.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Jalen Brooks::WR4", "name": "Jalen Brooks", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 105, "seasonBaselineRank": 173, "weeklyRankDelta": 68, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Mitchell Evans::TE", "name": "Mitchell Evans", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 2.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.32144999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 59, "seasonBaselineRank": 75, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1014, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1014, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Kendre Miller::RB", "name": "Kendre Miller", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 60, "seasonBaselineRank": 84, "weeklyRankDelta": 24, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3674, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3674, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Jaylin Lane::WR", "name": "Jaylin Lane", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 2.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.3299, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 108, "seasonBaselineRank": 178, "weeklyRankDelta": 70, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Darius Cooper::WR4", "name": "Darius Cooper", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 2.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 109, "seasonBaselineRank": 94, "weeklyRankDelta": -15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Daniel Bellinger::TE", "name": "Daniel Bellinger", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.6 }, "confidence": 0.34060000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 60, "seasonBaselineRank": 58, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jalen Royals::WR4", "name": "Jalen Royals", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 110, "seasonBaselineRank": 78, "weeklyRankDelta": -32, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Jahdae Walker::WR", "name": "Jahdae Walker", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 111, "seasonBaselineRank": 120, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jimmy Horn Jr.::WR", "name": "Jimmy Horn Jr.", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 112, "seasonBaselineRank": 128, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Malik Davis::RB", "name": "Malik Davis", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 61, "seasonBaselineRank": 91, "weeklyRankDelta": 30, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.427, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.427, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.8, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -8.3, "matchupPct": -5.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Kyle Williams::WR", "name": "Kyle Williams", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 1.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.5 }, "confidence": 0.31589999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 113, "seasonBaselineRank": 164, "weeklyRankDelta": 51, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Jackson Hawes::TE", "name": "Jackson Hawes", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25645, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 61, "seasonBaselineRank": 61, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1161, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1161, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Ian Thomas::TE", "name": "Ian Thomas", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 105, "weeklyRankDelta": 43, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9656, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1765, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1481, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Adam Trautman::FB", "name": "Adam Trautman", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.3 }, "confidence": 0.42285, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 63, "seasonBaselineRank": 73, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Johnny Mundt::FB", "name": "Johnny Mundt", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.31555, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 64, "seasonBaselineRank": 74, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1067, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1067, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Geno Smith::QB", "name": "Geno Smith", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 13.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 13.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 13.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.15, "planningRange": { "low": 9.3, "high": 17.3 }, "confidence": 0.50595, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": 29, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.52, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5368, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.7 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Brashard Smith::RB", "name": "Brashard Smith", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.36500000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 100, "weeklyRankDelta": 38, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4191, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4191, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 69.7, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -5.7, "matchupPct": -4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Ray Davis::RB", "name": "Ray Davis", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.4612, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 63, "seasonBaselineRank": 69, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4866, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4866, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": 1.7, "matchupPct": 1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ameer Abdullah::RB", "name": "Ameer Abdullah", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.32814999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 64, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": -23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4287, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4287, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.5, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -8.4, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 2.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Luke McCaffrey::WR4", "name": "Luke McCaffrey", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25255, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 114, "seasonBaselineRank": 181, "weeklyRankDelta": 67, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Jelani Woods::TE", "name": "Jelani Woods", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 65, "seasonBaselineRank": 107, "weeklyRankDelta": 42, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9977, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1116, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1103, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Chris Brooks::RB", "name": "Chris Brooks", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.25, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.2769, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 65, "seasonBaselineRank": 76, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.473, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.473, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -2.5, "matchupPct": -1.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Devontez Walker::WR4", "name": "Devontez Walker", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 115, "seasonBaselineRank": 71, "weeklyRankDelta": -44, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Malachi Corley::WR", "name": "Malachi Corley", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 116, "seasonBaselineRank": 160, "weeklyRankDelta": 44, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Ben Sinnott::TE", "name": "Ben Sinnott", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 66, "seasonBaselineRank": 57, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::DJ Giddens::RB", "name": "DJ Giddens", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 66, "seasonBaselineRank": 56, "weeklyRankDelta": -10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.455, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.455, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 79.8, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": 3.5, "matchupPct": 2.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Bo Melton::WR4", "name": "Bo Melton", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.1 }, "confidence": 0.2613, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 117, "seasonBaselineRank": 36, "weeklyRankDelta": -81, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2895, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2895, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Hunter Long::FB", "name": "Hunter Long", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 1.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 92, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::John Bates::FB", "name": "John Bates", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 1.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 68, "seasonBaselineRank": 119, "weeklyRankDelta": 51, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Brycen Tremayne::WR", "name": "Brycen Tremayne", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 1.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 118, "seasonBaselineRank": 161, "weeklyRankDelta": 43, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Charlie Woerner::FB", "name": "Charlie Woerner", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 69, "seasonBaselineRank": 43, "weeklyRankDelta": -26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1243, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1243, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Tylan Wallace::WR", "name": "Tylan Wallace", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 119, "seasonBaselineRank": 169, "weeklyRankDelta": 50, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Eric Saubert::TE", "name": "Eric Saubert", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 70, "seasonBaselineRank": 91, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jonathon Brooks::RB", "name": "Jonathon Brooks", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 82, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4949, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4949, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.7, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Quintin Morris::TE", "name": "Quintin Morris", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 71, "seasonBaselineRank": 72, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0998, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0998, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Kylen Granson::FB", "name": "Kylen Granson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.32370000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 72, "seasonBaselineRank": 84, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Brevyn Spann-Ford::TE", "name": "Brevyn Spann-Ford", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.29435, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 73, "seasonBaselineRank": 88, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1267, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1267, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Payne Durham::TE", "name": "Payne Durham", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 74, "seasonBaselineRank": 63, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0362, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0835, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0997, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Ryan Miller::WR", "name": "Ryan Miller", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 121, "seasonBaselineRank": 148, "weeklyRankDelta": 27, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::KeAndre Lambert-Smith::WR", "name": "KeAndre Lambert-Smith", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 122, "seasonBaselineRank": 147, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Durham Smythe::FB", "name": "Durham Smythe", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 0.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 75, "seasonBaselineRank": 47, "weeklyRankDelta": -28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1324, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1324, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Blake Whiteheart::TE", "name": "Blake Whiteheart", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 0.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 76, "seasonBaselineRank": 115, "weeklyRankDelta": 39, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9715, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1726, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1494, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Elijah Arroyo::TE", "name": "Elijah Arroyo", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.30450000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 77, "seasonBaselineRank": 118, "weeklyRankDelta": 41, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Andrew Ogletree::TE", "name": "Andrew Ogletree", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 71, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1405, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1405, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Simi Fehoko::WR", "name": "Simi Fehoko", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 0.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 123, "seasonBaselineRank": 167, "weeklyRankDelta": 44, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jared Wiley::TE", "name": "Jared Wiley", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 79, "seasonBaselineRank": 93, "weeklyRankDelta": 14, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Ben Yurosek::TE", "name": "Ben Yurosek", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 80, "seasonBaselineRank": 99, "weeklyRankDelta": 19, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1051, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1051, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Devin Duvernay::WR", "name": "Devin Duvernay", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 124, "seasonBaselineRank": 114, "weeklyRankDelta": -10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Ben Skowronek::WR", "name": "Ben Skowronek", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 125, "seasonBaselineRank": 153, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2435, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2873, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Robert Tonyan::TE", "name": "Robert Tonyan", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 112, "weeklyRankDelta": 31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9774, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1578, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1407, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::George Holani::RB", "name": "George Holani", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 68, "seasonBaselineRank": 46, "weeklyRankDelta": -22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.504, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.504, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -0.5, "matchupPct": -0.3, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Audric Estimé::RB", "name": "Audric Estimé", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.8 }, "confidence": 0.29055000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 69, "seasonBaselineRank": 98, "weeklyRankDelta": 29, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3674, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3674, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Chris Blair::WR", "name": "Chris Blair", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 126, "seasonBaselineRank": 118, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dareke Young::WR", "name": "Dareke Young", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 129, "seasonBaselineRank": 124, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kameron Johnson::WR", "name": "Kameron Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 130, "seasonBaselineRank": 163, "weeklyRankDelta": 33, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Skyy Moore::WR", "name": "Skyy Moore", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 0.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4 }, "confidence": 0.28145000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 131, "seasonBaselineRank": 149, "weeklyRankDelta": 18, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2895, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2895, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Sean Tucker::RB", "name": "Sean Tucker", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 2.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.28575199999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 70, "seasonBaselineRank": 73, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4748, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4858, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.9, "matchupDelta": -5.9, "matchupPct": -4.1, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Tai Felton::WR4", "name": "Tai Felton", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 0.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.01, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 132, "seasonBaselineRank": 81, "weeklyRankDelta": -51, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Colson Yankoff::TE", "name": "Colson Yankoff", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 0.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.01, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 82, "seasonBaselineRank": 101, "weeklyRankDelta": 19, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Ke'Shawn Williams::WR", "name": "Ke'Shawn Williams", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 0.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 133, "seasonBaselineRank": 159, "weeklyRankDelta": 26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3595, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3595, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Cameron Latu::TE", "name": "Cameron Latu", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 85, "seasonBaselineRank": 100, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Nate Adkins::TE", "name": "Nate Adkins", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 86, "seasonBaselineRank": 96, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Ko Kieft::FB", "name": "Ko Kieft", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 87, "seasonBaselineRank": 81, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0362, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0835, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0997, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Darren Waller::FB", "name": "Darren Waller", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.36174999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 92, "seasonBaselineRank": 33, "weeklyRankDelta": -59, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1014, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1014, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Feleipe Franks::TE", "name": "Feleipe Franks", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 93, "seasonBaselineRank": 103, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1014, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1014, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Tutu Atwell::WR", "name": "Tutu Atwell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.35195000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 135, "seasonBaselineRank": 137, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Xavier Smith::WR", "name": "Xavier Smith", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.3279000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 136, "seasonBaselineRank": 182, "weeklyRankDelta": 46, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jordan Watkins::WR", "name": "Jordan Watkins", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 137, "seasonBaselineRank": 146, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jacob Cowing::WR", "name": "Jacob Cowing", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 138, "seasonBaselineRank": 145, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Laquon Treadwell::WR", "name": "Laquon Treadwell", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 139, "seasonBaselineRank": 123, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Tim Patrick::WR", "name": "Tim Patrick", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.36685, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 141, "seasonBaselineRank": 174, "weeklyRankDelta": 33, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Odell Beckham Jr.::WR4", "name": "Odell Beckham Jr.", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 143, "seasonBaselineRank": 127, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2903, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2948, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": -0.1 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::De'Von Achane::RB", "name": "De'Von Achane", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 17.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.9, "planningRange": { "low": 13.2, "high": 22.2 }, "confidence": 0.46989999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 7, "seasonBaselineRank": 5, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.528, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4911, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Trey McBride::TE", "name": "Trey McBride", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 15.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 16.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.35, "planningRange": { "low": 11.7, "high": 20.1 }, "confidence": 0.48880000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 1, "seasonBaselineRank": 1, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": -0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Derrick Henry::RB", "name": "Derrick Henry", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 16.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 16.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 16.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.1, "planningRange": { "low": 12.6, "high": 20.8 }, "confidence": 0.4986, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 7, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 6.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5005, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5005, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 76.5, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Rashee Rice::WR1", "name": "Rashee Rice", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 15.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 15.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.44, "planningRange": { "low": 11, "high": 19.8 }, "confidence": 0.4280499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": 5, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 6.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Chris Olave::WR1", "name": "Chris Olave", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 15.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 15.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.33, "planningRange": { "low": 11.5, "high": 19.1 }, "confidence": 0.5343000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 6.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3353, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3353, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Kyren Williams::RB", "name": "Kyren Williams", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "RB", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 16.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 16.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 16.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.9, "planningRange": { "low": 12.3, "high": 20.3 }, "confidence": 0.5098999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 8, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4487, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4487, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 76.3, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 2.1, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Omarion Hampton::RB", "name": "Omarion Hampton", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 16.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 16.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 16.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.81, "planningRange": { "low": 11.5, "high": 21.1 }, "confidence": 0.3656, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Nico Collins::WR1", "name": "Nico Collins", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 14.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.46, "planningRange": { "low": 10.7, "high": 18.7 }, "confidence": 0.50495, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 7, "seasonBaselineRank": 9, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 5.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::CeeDee Lamb::WR1", "name": "CeeDee Lamb", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 14.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 10.4, "high": 18.4 }, "confidence": 0.49650000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 5.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::James Cook III::RB", "name": "James Cook III", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 15.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 15.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.77, "planningRange": { "low": 11.6, "high": 19.4 }, "confidence": 0.5248999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4866, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4866, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Brown", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 13.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 13.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 13.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 10.1, "high": 17.7 }, "confidence": 0.5388499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 10, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 64.8, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -10.4, "matchupPct": -7.3, "gameScriptPct": -2.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -9.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tee Higgins::WR2", "name": "Tee Higgins", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 12.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.33, "planningRange": { "low": 8.4, "high": 16 }, "confidence": 0.5167, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 13, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Brock Bowers::TE", "name": "Brock Bowers", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 12.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 7.9, "high": 16.3 }, "confidence": 0.43155000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 2, "seasonBaselineRank": 3, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9656, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1765, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1481, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": -0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Justin Jefferson::WR1", "name": "Justin Jefferson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 12, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 8.3, "high": 15.7 }, "confidence": 0.5322999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 16, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::DK Metcalf::WR1", "name": "DK Metcalf", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 12, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 8, "high": 16 }, "confidence": 0.47384999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": 23, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2435, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2873, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.06, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0898, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1281, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Quentin Johnston::WR2", "name": "Quentin Johnston", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 11.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.42, "planningRange": { "low": 7.8, "high": 15.8 }, "confidence": 0.48000000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": 27, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jakobi Meyers::WR3", "name": "Jakobi Meyers", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 11.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.44, "planningRange": { "low": 7.9, "high": 15.5 }, "confidence": 0.5127499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": 30, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Justin Herbert::QB", "name": "Justin Herbert", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 21.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 21.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 21.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 2.1, "planningRange": { "low": 17.2, "high": 25.4 }, "confidence": 0.52355, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 1, "seasonBaselineRank": 14, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5498, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5493, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -1.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -0.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Jameson Williams::WR2", "name": "Jameson Williams", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 11.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 7.8, "high": 15.4 }, "confidence": 0.5138499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": 21, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3024, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Travis Kelce::TE", "name": "Travis Kelce", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 11.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.31, "planningRange": { "low": 7.7, "high": 15.3 }, "confidence": 0.52555, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Tony Pollard::RB", "name": "Tony Pollard", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 12.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 12.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 12.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.7, "planningRange": { "low": 8.6, "high": 16.6 }, "confidence": 0.48555, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": 31, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 62.8, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -13.4, "matchupPct": -9.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::DeVonta Smith::WR1", "name": "DeVonta Smith", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 11.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 7.5, "high": 15.3 }, "confidence": 0.50405, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": 20, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1405, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1405, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Chuba Hubbard::RB", "name": "Chuba Hubbard", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 11.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.61, "planningRange": { "low": 7.8, "high": 15.4 }, "confidence": 0.5119, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 34, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 1.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.7, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Deebo Samuel Sr.::WR2", "name": "Deebo Samuel Sr.", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 10.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 6.7, "high": 14.1 }, "confidence": 0.54145, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": 29, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Mike Evans::WR1", "name": "Mike Evans", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 10.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 6.6, "high": 14.2 }, "confidence": 0.4862, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 33, "seasonBaselineRank": 22, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Dalton Schultz::TE", "name": "Dalton Schultz", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 10.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.31, "planningRange": { "low": 6.5, "high": 14.1 }, "confidence": 0.51405, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 15, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.123, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.123, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:tennessee-titans", "name": "Tennessee Titans D/ST", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DST", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 14.7 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 2, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.543961, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Malik Willis::QB", "name": "Malik Willis", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 19.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.48, "planningRange": { "low": 13.9, "high": 25.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5258, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5412, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.7, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Josh Allen::QB", "name": "Josh Allen", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 19.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.63, "planningRange": { "low": 16, "high": 23.8 }, "confidence": 0.5430999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": 1, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.475, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.475, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.6 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": 1.7, "matchupPct": 1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Keenan Allen::WR3", "name": "Keenan Allen", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 10.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 6.4, "high": 14 }, "confidence": 0.516, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 35, "seasonBaselineRank": 25, "weeklyRankDelta": -10, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Harold Fannin Jr.::TE", "name": "Harold Fannin Jr.", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 10.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 6.1, "high": 14.1 }, "confidence": 0.43360000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 9, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9715, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1726, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1494, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:philadelphia-eagles", "name": "Philadelphia Eagles D/ST", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 7.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 14.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614399, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Patrick Mahomes::QB", "name": "Patrick Mahomes", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 19.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.76, "planningRange": { "low": 15.8, "high": 23.8 }, "confidence": 0.53595, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": 7, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.9, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -0.3 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 66.4, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:pittsburgh-steelers", "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 7.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 14.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.572583, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Travis Etienne Jr.::RB", "name": "Travis Etienne Jr.", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 11.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 7.4, "high": 14.8 }, "confidence": 0.54925, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": 18, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3674, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3674, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Jaylen Waddle::WR1", "name": "Jaylen Waddle", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 9.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 6.2, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.5157999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 36, "seasonBaselineRank": 35, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Kyle Pitts Sr.::TE", "name": "Kyle Pitts Sr.", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 9.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 5.9, "high": 13.7 }, "confidence": 0.47054999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": 10, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1243, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1243, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.9 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.8, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -8.3, "matchupPct": -5.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::J.K. Dobbins::RB", "name": "J.K. Dobbins", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 11, "baselineProjectedPoints": 11, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 11, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 7, "high": 15 }, "confidence": 0.4625, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": 22, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4238, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4238, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Tucker Kraft::TE", "name": "Tucker Kraft", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 9.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 5.8, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.4686499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": 5, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.6, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0999, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0999, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Cameron Dicker::K", "name": "Cameron Dicker", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 3, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607046, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Josh Downs::WR2", "name": "Josh Downs", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 9.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 6, "high": 13.4 }, "confidence": 0.51145, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 38, "seasonBaselineRank": 50, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Courtland Sutton::WR2", "name": "Courtland Sutton", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 9.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.26, "planningRange": { "low": 6, "high": 13.4 }, "confidence": 0.52035, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 39, "seasonBaselineRank": 18, "weeklyRankDelta": -21, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Evan McPherson::K", "name": "Evan McPherson", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "K", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.8, "high": 11.8 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 4, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.549699, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::David Montgomery::RB", "name": "David Montgomery", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 10.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.6, "planningRange": { "low": 7, "high": 14.6 }, "confidence": 0.5094999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": 27, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4503, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4503, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Ka'imi Fairbairn::K", "name": "Ka'imi Fairbairn", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "K", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.7, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.541817, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jake Elliott::K", "name": "Jake Elliott", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "K", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.7, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614399, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Drake Maye::QB", "name": "Drake Maye", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 19.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.61, "planningRange": { "low": 15, "high": 23.4 }, "confidence": 0.4823, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 8, "seasonBaselineRank": 6, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.504, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.504, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.4, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": -9.5, "matchupPct": -6.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::C.J. Stroud::QB", "name": "C.J. Stroud", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 19.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.86, "planningRange": { "low": 14.8, "high": 23.6 }, "confidence": 0.4698500000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": 22, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5506, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5506, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Spencer Shrader::K", "name": "Spencer Shrader", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "K", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 7.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.6, "high": 11.6 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 7, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51027, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:seattle-seahawks", "name": "Seattle Seahawks D/ST", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "DST", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 6.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 13.9 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 5, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562012, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:chicago-bears", "name": "Chicago Bears D/ST", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 6.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 13.9 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 6, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502201, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Matthew Stafford::QB", "name": "Matthew Stafford", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "QB", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 19.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 19.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 19.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.9, "planningRange": { "low": 15, "high": 23.2 }, "confidence": 0.52355, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": 5, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": 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"sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487273, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Cam Little::K", "name": "Cam Little", "teamName": 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.2, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Khalil Shakir::WR2", "name": "Khalil Shakir", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 9.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 5.5, "high": 12.9 }, "confidence": 0.5157999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 41, "seasonBaselineRank": 46, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2591, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2591, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Jerry Jeudy::WR1", "name": "Jerry Jeudy", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 9.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 5.4, "high": 13 }, "confidence": 0.49600000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 59, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "FLEX", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Colston Loveland::FB", "name": "Colston Loveland", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 9.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.25, "planningRange": { "low": 5.2, "high": 13 }, "confidence": 0.44299999999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 12, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "START", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.126, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.126, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Chris Boswell::K", "name": "Chris Boswell", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 7.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.3, "high": 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"retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Dominic Zvada::K", "name": "Dominic Zvada", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "K", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 7.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.3, "high": 11.3 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 12, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502912, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Brandon Aubrey::K", "name": "Brandon Aubrey", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "K", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 7.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3.3, "high": 11.3 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.494631, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:carolina-panthers", "name": "Carolina Panthers D/ST", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 9, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495342, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:minnesota-vikings", "name": "Minnesota Vikings D/ST", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 10, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524342, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:kansas-city-chiefs", "name": "Kansas City Chiefs D/ST", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 11, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.52648, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:denver-broncos", "name": "Denver Broncos D/ST", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 13.6 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 12, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "STREAM", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": 0, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471067, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Joe Burrow::QB", "name": "Joe Burrow", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 18.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.65, "planningRange": { "low": 14.6, "high": 23 }, "confidence": 0.48550000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 13, "seasonBaselineRank": 9, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.3, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -8.5, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kenny Gainwell::RB", "name": "Kenny Gainwell", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 10.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 10.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 10.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 6.5, "high": 14.1 }, "confidence": 0.49305, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 35, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -0.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4748, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4858, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Hunter Henry::TE", "name": "Hunter Henry", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 8.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 5.2, "high": 12.4 }, "confidence": 0.546, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 14, "seasonBaselineRank": 13, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Dallas Goedert::TE", "name": "Dallas Goedert", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 8.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.29, "planningRange": { "low": 5, "high": 12.6 }, "confidence": 0.4865000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 15, "seasonBaselineRank": 7, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1067, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1067, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Eddy Pineiro::K", "name": "Eddy Pineiro", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 11 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 16, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427413, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", 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"modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.6394, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.6082, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the 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"coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Bo Nix::QB", "name": "Bo Nix", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 18.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 18.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 18.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.57, "planningRange": { "low": 13.8, "high": 22.6 }, "confidence": 0.4566499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 17, "seasonBaselineRank": 12, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5734, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5734, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -0.7 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 72.2, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -3, "matchupPct": -2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Xavier Worthy::WR2", "name": "Xavier Worthy", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 8.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 4.7, "high": 12.3 }, "confidence": 0.49044999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 48, "seasonBaselineRank": 56, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Cairo Santos::K", "name": "Cairo Santos", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "K", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.6 }, 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"coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Trey Smack::K", "name": "Trey Smack", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "K", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 6.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.6 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": 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}, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Wil Lutz::K", "name": "Wil Lutz", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "K", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 10.5 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -0.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, 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"coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Jauan Jennings::WR3", "name": "Jauan Jennings", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 8.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 4.4, "high": 11.8 }, "confidence": 0.5153999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": -11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Kyle Monangai::RB", "name": "Kyle Monangai", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 9.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 4.9, "high": 13.5 }, "confidence": 0.3133639999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4439, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4439, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Rashid Shaheed::WR2", "name": "Rashid Shaheed", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.28, "planningRange": { "low": 4.3, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.48974999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 52, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2935, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2935, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Mason Taylor::TE", "name": "Mason Taylor", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.37855000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 18, "seasonBaselineRank": 34, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9977, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1116, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1103, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Drew Stevens::K", "name": "Drew Stevens", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "K", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 6.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 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"opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:atlanta-falcons", "name": "Atlanta Falcons D/ST", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": -0.6, "high": 12.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.424996, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:cleveland-browns", "name": "Cleveland Browns D/ST", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": -0.6, "high": 12.4 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 20, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.366968, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::RJ Harvey::RB", "name": "RJ Harvey", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 9.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 9.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 9.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.37, "planningRange": { "low": 5.2, "high": 13 }, "confidence": 0.4462499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 33, "seasonBaselineRank": 25, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -1.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4238, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4238, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 72.2, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -3, "matchupPct": -2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Jordan Addison::WR2", "name": "Jordan Addison", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.25, "planningRange": { "low": 4.2, "high": 11.6 }, "confidence": 0.5089, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 44, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Calvin Ridley::WR3", "name": "Calvin Ridley", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 7.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 3.8, "high": 11.8 }, "confidence": 0.40234999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 62, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3122, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3298, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Blake Grupe::K", "name": "Blake Grupe", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "K", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 5.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 1.9, "high": 9.9 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.453596, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Jayden Daniels::QB", "name": "Jayden Daniels", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 17.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.31, "planningRange": { "low": 12.5, "high": 22.3 }, "confidence": 0.34550000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": 15, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4921, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4921, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": -9.2, "matchupPct": -6.4, "gameScriptPct": -2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Kayshon Boutte::WR4", "name": "Kayshon Boutte", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 7.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 3.9, "high": 11.5 }, "confidence": 0.46335000000000015, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 57, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Greg Dulcich::TE", "name": "Greg Dulcich", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 7.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 3.3, "high": 11.9 }, "confidence": 0.26514999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 19, "seasonBaselineRank": 32, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0046, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.112, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:baltimore-ravens", "name": "Baltimore Ravens D/ST", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": -0.9, "high": 12.1 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 21, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487273, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Sam Darnold::QB", "name": "Sam Darnold", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "QB", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 17.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.87, "planningRange": { "low": 13.3, "high": 21.3 }, "confidence": 0.5138, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 23, "seasonBaselineRank": 21, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4868, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4868, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.2 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -0.5, "matchupPct": -0.3, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:dallas-cowboys", "name": "Dallas Cowboys D/ST", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "DST", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": -1, "high": 12 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 22, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.494631, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Tyler Shough::QB", "name": "Tyler Shough", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 17.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.3, "planningRange": { "low": 12.3, "high": 22.1 }, "confidence": 0.35230000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 24, "seasonBaselineRank": 25, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.576, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.576, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.2, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Kyler Murray::QB", "name": "Kyler Murray", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 17, "baselineProjectedPoints": 17, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 17, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.56, "planningRange": { "low": 12.7, "high": 21.3 }, "confidence": 0.4588499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 25, "seasonBaselineRank": 18, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5414, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5414, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -2 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.2, "defenseRating": 74.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Andre Szmyt::K", "name": "Andre Szmyt", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "K", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 1.4, "high": 9.4 }, "confidence": 0.42, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 32, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -1.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.366968, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", 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"coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::DJ Moore::WR1", "name": "DJ Moore", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 3.6, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.5157999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 57, "seasonBaselineRank": 31, "weeklyRankDelta": -26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:cincinnati-bengals", "name": "Cincinnati Bengals D/ST", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": -1.5, "high": 11.5 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.549699, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Devaughn Vele::WR2", "name": "Devaughn Vele", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 3.2, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.43029999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 59, "seasonBaselineRank": 72, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3353, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3353, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Darnell Mooney::WR2", "name": "Darnell Mooney", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 3.2, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.47125, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 60, "seasonBaselineRank": 86, "weeklyRankDelta": 26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2903, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2948, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Pat Freiermuth::TE", "name": "Pat Freiermuth", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 6.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 3.1, "high": 10.7 }, "confidence": 0.4679999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 24, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9774, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1578, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1407, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. 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Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2591, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2591, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jalen Coker::WR2", "name": "Jalen Coker", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 6.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 2.9, "high": 10.7 }, "confidence": 0.41439999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 64, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -2.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Emanuel Wilson::RB", "name": "Emanuel Wilson", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.74, "planningRange": { "low": 4.1, "high": 11.7 }, "confidence": 0.47284999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 37, "seasonBaselineRank": 74, "weeklyRankDelta": 37, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.504, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.504, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -0.5, "matchupPct": -0.3, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Jordan Mason::RB", "name": "Jordan Mason", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 7.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 4.2, "high": 11.6 }, "confidence": 0.50695, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 38, "seasonBaselineRank": 38, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -2.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4732, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4732, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "dst:washington-commanders", "name": "Washington Commanders D/ST", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 3.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": -2.1, "high": 10.9 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383233, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::AJ Barner::TE", "name": "AJ Barner", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 6.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10 }, "confidence": 0.47284999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 26, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Evan Engram::TE", "name": "Evan Engram", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 6.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 2.7, "high": 9.9 }, "confidence": 0.50735, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 27, "seasonBaselineRank": 24, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "dst:arizona-cardinals", "name": "Arizona Cardinals D/ST", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DST", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": -2.2, "high": 10.8 }, "confidence": 0.38, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 30, "seasonBaselineRank": null, "weeklyRankDelta": null, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.390575, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.58, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": null, "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": null, "coachingUsageExpected": null, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": null, "coachingUsageReason": null, "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": {} }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Isaiah Likely::TE", "name": "Isaiah Likely", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 2.4, "high": 10 }, "confidence": 0.42250000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 28, "seasonBaselineRank": 36, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -2.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0251, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0984, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1114, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Marquise Brown::WR", "name": "Marquise Brown", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.21, "planningRange": { "low": 2.4, "high": 10 }, "confidence": 0.441, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 53, "weeklyRankDelta": -14, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Aaron Rodgers::QB", "name": "Aaron Rodgers", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 15.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 15.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 15.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.66, "planningRange": { "low": 11.6, "high": 20 }, "confidence": 0.4952999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 26, "seasonBaselineRank": 23, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5747, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5698, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.6 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 73.7, "defenseRating": 74, "matchupDelta": -0.3, "matchupPct": -0.2, "gameScriptPct": 1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Xavier Legette::WR3", "name": "Xavier Legette", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 6.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 2.4, "high": 9.8 }, "confidence": 0.48915, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 68, "seasonBaselineRank": 99, "weeklyRankDelta": 31, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Tyler Higbee::FB", "name": "Tyler Higbee", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.18, "planningRange": { "low": 2.1, "high": 9.9 }, "confidence": 0.35975, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": 29, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Najee Harris::RB", "name": "Najee Harris", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 7.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 7.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 7.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.34, "planningRange": { "low": 3.1, "high": 11.3 }, "confidence": 0.3314999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 40, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": -12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Noah Fant::FB", "name": "Noah Fant", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 5.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 1.9, "high": 9.1 }, "confidence": 0.49465, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 33, "seasonBaselineRank": 37, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1384, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1384, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Michael Mayer::TE", "name": "Michael Mayer", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 5.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 9.3 }, "confidence": 0.4036, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 34, "seasonBaselineRank": 53, "weeklyRankDelta": 19, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9656, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1765, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1481, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Blake Corum::RB", "name": "Blake Corum", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "RB", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 6.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 3, "high": 10.4 }, "confidence": 0.46895000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 50, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4487, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4487, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 76.3, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 2.1, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::DeMario Douglas::WR3", "name": "DeMario Douglas", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 5.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 1.9, "high": 9.1 }, "confidence": 0.52325, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 76, "seasonBaselineRank": 87, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Oronde Gadsden II::TE", "name": "Oronde Gadsden II", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.4137, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 35, "seasonBaselineRank": 19, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Darnell Washington::TE", "name": "Darnell Washington", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.3887, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 36, "seasonBaselineRank": 51, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9774, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1578, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1407, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jalen Nailor::WR2", "name": "Jalen Nailor", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 1.6, "high": 9.2 }, "confidence": 0.40945, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 77, "seasonBaselineRank": 105, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Rashod Bateman::WR2", "name": "Rashod Bateman", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 5.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 9.1 }, "confidence": 0.4388, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 107, "weeklyRankDelta": 29, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Cole Kmet::TE", "name": "Cole Kmet", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 5.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 1.7, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.5053999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 37, "seasonBaselineRank": 38, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -3.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.126, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.126, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Chris Rodriguez Jr.::RB", "name": "Chris Rodriguez Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 6.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.42, "planningRange": { "low": 2.6, "high": 10.4 }, "confidence": 0.38795, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 43, "seasonBaselineRank": 43, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -3.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4287, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4287, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.7, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 61.9, "defenseRating": 73, "matchupDelta": -11.1, "matchupPct": -7.8, "gameScriptPct": 0.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Justice Hill::RB", "name": "Justice Hill", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 6.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 2.4, "high": 10.4 }, "confidence": 0.3309000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 45, "seasonBaselineRank": 42, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5005, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5005, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 76.5, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Tyquan Thornton::WR3", "name": "Tyquan Thornton", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 1.3, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.35395, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 110, "weeklyRankDelta": 29, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Ryan Flournoy::WR3", "name": "Ryan Flournoy", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 5.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 1.3, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.40679999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 82, "seasonBaselineRank": 66, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Cam Ward::QB", "name": "Cam Ward", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "QB", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 14.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.45, "planningRange": { "low": 9.9, "high": 19.5 }, "confidence": 0.3458000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 29, "seasonBaselineRank": 32, "weeklyRankDelta": 3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.6013, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5824, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -9.1 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 62.8, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -13.4, "matchupPct": -9.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Samaje Perine::RB", "name": "Samaje Perine", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 6.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.38, "planningRange": { "low": 2.5, "high": 9.9 }, "confidence": 0.45299999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 46, "seasonBaselineRank": 51, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4358, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.3, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -8.5, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Tyler Conklin::TE", "name": "Tyler Conklin", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 4.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 1.1, "high": 8.7 }, "confidence": 0.37215, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 39, "seasonBaselineRank": 23, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.06, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0898, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1281, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::David Njoku::TE", "name": "David Njoku", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 4.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 1.2, "high": 8.6 }, "confidence": 0.45920000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 40, "seasonBaselineRank": 35, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Tyler Allgeier::RB", "name": "Tyler Allgeier", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 6.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 6.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 6.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.37, "planningRange": { "low": 2.4, "high": 9.8 }, "confidence": 0.4706000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 47, "seasonBaselineRank": 46, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4099, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4341, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.6, "matchupDelta": -5.6, "matchupPct": -3.9, "gameScriptPct": -2.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Tory Horton::WR4", "name": "Tory Horton", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 4.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 8.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 83, "seasonBaselineRank": 71, "weeklyRankDelta": -12, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2935, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2935, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Josh Palmer::WR", "name": "Josh Palmer", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 4.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 1.2, "high": 8.6 }, "confidence": 0.45665000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 84, "seasonBaselineRank": 108, "weeklyRankDelta": 24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2591, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2591, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Deshaun Watson::QB", "name": "Deshaun Watson", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 14.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.96, "planningRange": { "low": 9.3, "high": 19.7 }, "confidence": 0.25225000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 30, "seasonBaselineRank": 30, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.57, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5323, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 64.8, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -10.4, "matchupPct": -7.3, "gameScriptPct": -2.7, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -9.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Tre' Harris::WR3", "name": "Tre' Harris", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 4.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 8.5 }, "confidence": 0.34285, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 85, "seasonBaselineRank": 141, "weeklyRankDelta": 56, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Pat Bryant::WR", "name": "Pat Bryant", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 4.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.9, "high": 8.5 }, "confidence": 0.37474999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 86, "seasonBaselineRank": 112, "weeklyRankDelta": 26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Brian Robinson::RB", "name": "Brian Robinson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 5.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 5.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 5.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 2, "high": 9.4 }, "confidence": 0.44780000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 48, "seasonBaselineRank": 49, "weeklyRankDelta": 1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.546, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.546, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.9, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Jalen Tolbert::WR2", "name": "Jalen Tolbert", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.40099999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 87, "seasonBaselineRank": 132, "weeklyRankDelta": 45, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Brock Wright::FB", "name": "Brock Wright", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 8.3 }, "confidence": 0.29350000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 41, "seasonBaselineRank": 48, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.06, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0898, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1281, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0.1, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Noah Gray::FB", "name": "Noah Gray", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.47225000000000006, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 42, "seasonBaselineRank": 62, "weeklyRankDelta": 20, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Dawson Knox::FB", "name": "Dawson Knox", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.4884999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 43, "seasonBaselineRank": 41, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1161, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1161, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Gunnar Helm::TE", "name": "Gunnar Helm", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.7, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.3822, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 44, "seasonBaselineRank": 46, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Tez Johnson::WR", "name": "Tez Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.13, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.35134999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 88, "seasonBaselineRank": 104, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Tua Tagovailoa::QB", "name": "Tua Tagovailoa", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "QB", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 14, "baselineProjectedPoints": 14, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 14, "expectedTouchdowns": 1.15, "planningRange": { "low": 9.7, "high": 18.3 }, "confidence": 0.4621, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 31, "seasonBaselineRank": 28, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.5333, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.5333, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.8 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.9, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Isaiah Bond::WR4", "name": "Isaiah Bond", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 4.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.32700000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 89, "seasonBaselineRank": 171, "weeklyRankDelta": 82, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -4.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Marvin Mims Jr.::WR4", "name": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 7.8 }, "confidence": 0.4884999999999998, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 90, "seasonBaselineRank": 102, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3283, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3283, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Elijah Moore::WR", "name": "Elijah Moore", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.14, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 7.9 }, "confidence": 0.3838, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 91, "seasonBaselineRank": 69, "weeklyRankDelta": -22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Demarcus Robinson::WR4", "name": "Demarcus Robinson", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 4.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0.5, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.49010000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "MEDIUM", "positionRank": 92, "seasonBaselineRank": 113, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.5, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -8.4, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 2.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Cade Stover::TE", "name": "Cade Stover", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 46, "seasonBaselineRank": 83, "weeklyRankDelta": 37, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.123, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.123, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Tommy Tremble::TE", "name": "Tommy Tremble", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.12, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.4521, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 47, "seasonBaselineRank": 55, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1014, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1014, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_pass_yds": { "market": "player_pass_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.7 }, "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Jahan Dotson::WR2", "name": "Jahan Dotson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 3.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.3 }, "confidence": 0.4016499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 97, "seasonBaselineRank": 169, "weeklyRankDelta": 72, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Terrance Ferguson::TE", "name": "Terrance Ferguson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 48, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.6, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Keaton Mitchell::RB", "name": "Keaton Mitchell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 4.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.23, "planningRange": { "low": 0.7, "high": 8.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 70, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.7, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Jaylin Noel::WR3", "name": "Jaylin Noel", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.2 }, "confidence": 0.34440000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 98, "seasonBaselineRank": 148, "weeklyRankDelta": 50, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3273, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3273, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Kalif Raymond::WR3", "name": "Kalif Raymond", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 3.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.42349999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 99, "seasonBaselineRank": 139, "weeklyRankDelta": 40, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Elijah Higgins::TE", "name": "Elijah Higgins", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 3.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.3978, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 49, "seasonBaselineRank": 76, "weeklyRankDelta": 27, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Ty Johnson::RB", "name": "Ty Johnson", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 4.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.7, "high": 8.5 }, "confidence": 0.27264799999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 52, "weeklyRankDelta": -2, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4866, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4866, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": 1.7, "matchupPct": 1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Treylon Burks::WR", "name": "Treylon Burks", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 3.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.3078, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 100, "seasonBaselineRank": 167, "weeklyRankDelta": 67, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::Foster Moreau::FB", "name": "Foster Moreau", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.3197, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 50, "seasonBaselineRank": 42, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -5.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.123, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.123, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Kimani Vidal::RB", "name": "Kimani Vidal", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 4.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.24, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8.2 }, "confidence": 0.4182499999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 54, "weeklyRankDelta": -1, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4492, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 73.4, "matchupDelta": 0.7, "matchupPct": 0.5, "gameScriptPct": 2.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.6 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Dyami Brown::WR", "name": "Dyami Brown", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.42415, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 101, "seasonBaselineRank": 137, "weeklyRankDelta": 36, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -5.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Devin Singletary::RB", "name": "Devin Singletary", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 4.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0.8, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.4679999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 56, "seasonBaselineRank": 48, "weeklyRankDelta": -8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4773, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4678, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.2, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Detroit Lions::Isaac TeSlaa::WR3", "name": "Isaac TeSlaa", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New Orleans Saints", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.11, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.3065, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 102, "seasonBaselineRank": 111, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 24, "projectedMargin": 7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.641, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6496319047619048, "offensivePlaycaller": "Drew Petzing", "offensiveCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3024, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 82.6, "defenseRating": 72.1, "matchupDelta": 10.5, "matchupPct": 7.3, "gameScriptPct": -1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 8.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Isaiah Williams::WR4", "name": "Isaiah Williams", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.32069999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 103, "seasonBaselineRank": 173, "weeklyRankDelta": 70, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Davis Allen::TE", "name": "Davis Allen", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 51, "seasonBaselineRank": 56, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1411, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1411, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Jeremy Ruckert::TE", "name": "Jeremy Ruckert", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.7 }, "confidence": 0.4078, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 52, "seasonBaselineRank": 79, "weeklyRankDelta": 27, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9977, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1116, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1103, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Josh Whyle::TE", "name": "Josh Whyle", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.8 }, "confidence": 0.29705000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 53, "seasonBaselineRank": 61, "weeklyRankDelta": 8, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0999, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0999, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Konata Mumpfield::WR4", "name": "Konata Mumpfield", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 3.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.9 }, "confidence": 0.25835, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 104, "seasonBaselineRank": 180, "weeklyRankDelta": 76, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Corey Kiner::RB", "name": "Corey Kiner", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.22, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 8.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 57, "seasonBaselineRank": 91, "weeklyRankDelta": 34, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4558, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4558, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.4, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": -9.5, "matchupPct": -6.6, "gameScriptPct": -1.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Tank Bigsby::RB", "name": "Tank Bigsby", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 4.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.27, "planningRange": { "low": 0.6, "high": 7.8 }, "confidence": 0.44814999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 58, "seasonBaselineRank": 67, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4441, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 66.4, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Mo Alie-Cox::FB", "name": "Mo Alie-Cox", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.5 }, "confidence": 0.3898999999999999, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 54, "seasonBaselineRank": 80, "weeklyRankDelta": 26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1405, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1405, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Kendre Miller::RB", "name": "Kendre Miller", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 4.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 8 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 59, "seasonBaselineRank": 84, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3674, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3674, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Jalen Brooks::WR4", "name": "Jalen Brooks", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 105, "seasonBaselineRank": 175, "weeklyRankDelta": 70, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Drew Sample::TE", "name": "Drew Sample", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 2.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.41335, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 55, "seasonBaselineRank": 77, "weeklyRankDelta": 22, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1263, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1263, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Charlie Kolar::TE", "name": "Charlie Kolar", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 2.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 56, "seasonBaselineRank": 40, "weeklyRankDelta": -16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0166, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0957, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1039, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Brashard Smith::RB", "name": "Brashard Smith", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.17, "planningRange": { "low": 0.3, "high": 7.7 }, "confidence": 0.36500000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 60, "seasonBaselineRank": 100, "weeklyRankDelta": 40, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4191, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4191, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 69.7, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -5.7, "matchupPct": -4, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ameer Abdullah::RB", "name": "Ameer Abdullah", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.19, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 7.8 }, "confidence": 0.32814999999999994, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 61, "seasonBaselineRank": 37, "weeklyRankDelta": -24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4287, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4287, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.5, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -8.4, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 2.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Kaleb Johnson::RB", "name": "Kaleb Johnson", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.39, "planningRange": { "low": 0.1, "high": 7.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 59, "weeklyRankDelta": -3, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.473, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.473, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -2.5, "matchupPct": -1.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Luke Schoonmaker::TE", "name": "Luke Schoonmaker", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.40159999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 57, "seasonBaselineRank": 81, "weeklyRankDelta": 24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1267, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1267, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Jonathan Mingo::WR", "name": "Jonathan Mingo", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 2.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.4 }, "confidence": 0.31514999999999993, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 106, "seasonBaselineRank": 172, "weeklyRankDelta": 66, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3554, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3554, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Josh Oliver::TE", "name": "Josh Oliver", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.34445, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 58, "seasonBaselineRank": 49, "weeklyRankDelta": -9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1051, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1051, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Mitchell Evans::TE", "name": "Mitchell Evans", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.32144999999999996, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 59, "seasonBaselineRank": 75, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1014, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1014, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Ray Davis::RB", "name": "Ray Davis", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 3.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0.2, "high": 7.4 }, "confidence": 0.4612, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 63, "seasonBaselineRank": 69, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4866, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4866, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": 1.7, "matchupPct": 1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Jordan Whittington::WR3", "name": "Jordan Whittington", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.38639999999999997, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 107, "seasonBaselineRank": 176, "weeklyRankDelta": 69, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Darius Cooper::WR4", "name": "Darius Cooper", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 2.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 109, "seasonBaselineRank": 94, "weeklyRankDelta": -15, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2985, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2985, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Daniel Bellinger::TE", "name": "Daniel Bellinger", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 2.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.1 }, "confidence": 0.34060000000000007, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 60, "seasonBaselineRank": 60, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Malik Davis::RB", "name": "Malik Davis", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 3.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 64, "seasonBaselineRank": 85, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.427, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.427, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.8, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -8.3, "matchupPct": -5.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Chris Brooks::RB", "name": "Chris Brooks", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 3.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.25, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.5 }, "confidence": 0.2769, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 65, "seasonBaselineRank": 76, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.473, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.473, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.1, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -2.5, "matchupPct": -1.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.3 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jalen Royals::WR4", "name": "Jalen Royals", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 2.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 110, "seasonBaselineRank": 79, "weeklyRankDelta": -31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Jahdae Walker::WR", "name": "Jahdae Walker", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 2.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 111, "seasonBaselineRank": 117, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2919, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2919, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jimmy Horn Jr.::WR", "name": "Jimmy Horn Jr.", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 2.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 112, "seasonBaselineRank": 128, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Buffalo Bills::Jackson Hawes::TE", "name": "Jackson Hawes", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Houston Texans", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6 }, "confidence": 0.25645, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 61, "seasonBaselineRank": 65, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 3, "projectedMargin": -2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.456, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5268111851589103, "offensivePlaycaller": "Joe Brady", "offensiveCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "offenseTransition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1161, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1161, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 77.2, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Adam Trautman::FB", "name": "Adam Trautman", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.8 }, "confidence": 0.42285, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 62, "seasonBaselineRank": 71, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Ian Thomas::TE", "name": "Ian Thomas", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 64, "seasonBaselineRank": 113, "weeklyRankDelta": 49, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -6.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9656, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1765, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1481, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Luke McCaffrey::WR4", "name": "Luke McCaffrey", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 2.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.9 }, "confidence": 0.25255, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 114, "seasonBaselineRank": 178, "weeklyRankDelta": 64, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2865, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2865, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::DJ Giddens::RB", "name": "DJ Giddens", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 3.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 66, "seasonBaselineRank": 56, "weeklyRankDelta": -10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.455, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.455, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 79.8, "defenseRating": 76.3, "matchupDelta": 3.5, "matchupPct": 2.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Jelani Woods::TE", "name": "Jelani Woods", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 65, "seasonBaselineRank": 100, "weeklyRankDelta": 35, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9977, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1116, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1103, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Jonathon Brooks::RB", "name": "Jonathon Brooks", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 3.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 3.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 3.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.16, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 82, "weeklyRankDelta": 15, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4949, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4949, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.7, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Malachi Corley::WR", "name": "Malachi Corley", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 115, "seasonBaselineRank": 160, "weeklyRankDelta": 45, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::Ben Sinnott::TE", "name": "Ben Sinnott", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 1.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 66, "seasonBaselineRank": 59, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Devontez Walker::WR4", "name": "Devontez Walker", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 1.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 116, "seasonBaselineRank": 73, "weeklyRankDelta": -43, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Hunter Long::FB", "name": "Hunter Long", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 67, "seasonBaselineRank": 98, "weeklyRankDelta": 31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9467, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2148, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1633, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Washington Commanders::John Bates::FB", "name": "John Bates", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Philadelphia Eagles", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 68, "seasonBaselineRank": 101, "weeklyRankDelta": 33, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.3, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 7, "projectedMargin": -6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.383, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.48708483333333336, "offensivePlaycaller": "David Blough", "offensiveCoordinator": "David Blough", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1091, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1091, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.2, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -4.9, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Green Bay Packers::Bo Melton::WR4", "name": "Bo Melton", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Minnesota Vikings", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.2613, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 117, "seasonBaselineRank": 36, "weeklyRankDelta": -81, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 6, "projectedMargin": -1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.473, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.665429575, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2895, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2895, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": 2.7, "matchupPct": 1.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New Orleans Saints::Audric Estimé::RB", "name": "Audric Estimé", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Detroit Lions", "projectedPoints": 2.9, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.9, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.9, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.09, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6.6 }, "confidence": 0.29055000000000003, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 68, "seasonBaselineRank": 99, "weeklyRankDelta": 31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -7.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 26, "projectedMargin": -7.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.357, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5359633244725739, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kellen Moore", "offensiveCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3674, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3674, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 74.3, "matchupDelta": -7.3, "matchupPct": -5.1, "gameScriptPct": -2.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.8 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69, "defenseRating": 71.1, "matchupDelta": -2.1, "matchupPct": -1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Carolina Panthers::Brycen Tremayne::WR", "name": "Brycen Tremayne", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Chicago Bears", "projectedPoints": 1.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 118, "seasonBaselineRank": 162, "weeklyRankDelta": 44, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 18, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6497322914542728, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brad Idzik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2961, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2961, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Charlie Woerner::FB", "name": "Charlie Woerner", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 69, "seasonBaselineRank": 43, "weeklyRankDelta": -26, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1243, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1243, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Tylan Wallace::WR", "name": "Tylan Wallace", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 1.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 119, "seasonBaselineRank": 168, "weeklyRankDelta": 49, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2498, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Eric Saubert::TE", "name": "Eric Saubert", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 1.5, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.5, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.5, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 70, "seasonBaselineRank": 86, "weeklyRankDelta": 16, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tennessee Titans::Kylen Granson::FB", "name": "Kylen Granson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Jets", "projectedPoints": 1.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.32370000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 71, "seasonBaselineRank": 84, "weeklyRankDelta": 13, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.7, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 27, "projectedMargin": 2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.544, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6177839056029233, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Daboll", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9613, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1477, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1212, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 62.1, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -12, "matchupPct": -8.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -8.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Dallas Cowboys::Brevyn Spann-Ford::TE", "name": "Brevyn Spann-Ford", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New York Giants", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.8 }, "confidence": 0.29435, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 72, "seasonBaselineRank": 93, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 23, "projectedMargin": -0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.495, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.645871251519337, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Schottenheimer", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1267, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1267, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.6, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 5.4, "matchupPct": 3.8, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Quintin Morris::TE", "name": "Quintin Morris", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 73, "seasonBaselineRank": 73, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -7.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0998, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0998, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Ashton Dulin::WR4", "name": "Ashton Dulin", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.2573, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 120, "seasonBaselineRank": 90, "weeklyRankDelta": -30, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -7.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Ryan Miller::WR", "name": "Ryan Miller", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.05, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 121, "seasonBaselineRank": 161, "weeklyRankDelta": 40, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2689, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2954, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::KeAndre Lambert-Smith::WR", "name": "KeAndre Lambert-Smith", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 122, "seasonBaselineRank": 150, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::Durham Smythe::FB", "name": "Durham Smythe", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 75, "seasonBaselineRank": 44, "weeklyRankDelta": -31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1324, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1324, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Cleveland Browns::Blake Whiteheart::TE", "name": "Blake Whiteheart", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 76, "seasonBaselineRank": 116, "weeklyRankDelta": 40, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 13, "projectedMargin": -7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.367, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4885535726415094, "offensivePlaycaller": "Todd Monken", "offensiveCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9715, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1726, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1494, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 63.2, "defenseRating": 73.9, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::George Holani::RB", "name": "George Holani", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 2.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 69, "seasonBaselineRank": 45, "weeklyRankDelta": -24, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -8.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.504, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.504, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 75.4, "matchupDelta": -0.5, "matchupPct": -0.3, "gameScriptPct": 1.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Elijah Arroyo::TE", "name": "Elijah Arroyo", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.30450000000000005, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 77, "seasonBaselineRank": 119, "weeklyRankDelta": 42, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -8.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Andrew Ogletree::TE", "name": "Andrew Ogletree", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.03, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 74, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -8.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1405, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1405, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Sean Tucker::RB", "name": "Sean Tucker", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 2.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 2.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 2.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.15, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.7 }, "confidence": 0.28575199999999995, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 70, "seasonBaselineRank": 87, "weeklyRankDelta": 17, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -8.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67, "defenseRating": 72.9, "matchupDelta": -5.9, "matchupPct": -4.1, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Devin Duvernay::WR", "name": "Devin Duvernay", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 123, "seasonBaselineRank": 116, "weeklyRankDelta": -7, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Arizona Cardinals::Simi Fehoko::WR", "name": "Simi Fehoko", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Chargers", "projectedPoints": 0.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.3 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 124, "seasonBaselineRank": 166, "weeklyRankDelta": 42, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 16, "projectedMargin": -5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.391, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6653156499999999, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike LaFleur", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2709, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2979, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 68.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -5.1, "matchupPct": -3.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jared Wiley::TE", "name": "Jared Wiley", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 0.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 79, "seasonBaselineRank": 88, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -8.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.145, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.145, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.1, "defenseRating": 77.9, "matchupDelta": 2.2, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Ben Yurosek::TE", "name": "Ben Yurosek", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 0.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 80, "seasonBaselineRank": 110, "weeklyRankDelta": 30, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -8.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1051, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1051, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Ben Skowronek::WR", "name": "Ben Skowronek", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 0.7, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.7, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.7, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.2 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 125, "seasonBaselineRank": 153, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.5, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2435, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2873, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Robert Tonyan::TE", "name": "Robert Tonyan", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Atlanta Falcons", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 114, "weeklyRankDelta": 33, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -8.5, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 17, "projectedMargin": 3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.573, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6330161575342466, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McCarthy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 0.9774, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1578, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1407, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.5, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -3.3, "matchupPct": -2.3, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Philadelphia Eagles::Will Shipley::RB", "name": "Will Shipley", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Washington Commanders", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.2629, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 71, "seasonBaselineRank": 73, "weeklyRankDelta": 2, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -8.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 29, "projectedMargin": 6.1, "projectedWinProbability": 0.614, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5604547729141836, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean Mannion", "offensiveCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4441, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4441, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 66.4, "defenseRating": 74.1, "matchupDelta": -7.7, "matchupPct": -5.4, "gameScriptPct": 2.3, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.2 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 2.6, "matchupPct": 1.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 0.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Jacksonville Jaguars::LeQuint Allen Jr.::RB", "name": "LeQuint Allen Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Cleveland Browns", "projectedPoints": 1.8, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.8, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.8, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 5.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 72, "seasonBaselineRank": 93, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -8.6, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 15, "projectedMargin": 7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.631, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.666165625, "offensivePlaycaller": "Liam Coen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4287, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4287, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.5, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -8.4, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 2.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.8, "defenseRating": 74.5, "matchupDelta": -2.7, "matchupPct": -1.9, "gameScriptPct": -1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Atlanta Falcons::Chris Blair::WR", "name": "Chris Blair", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 126, "seasonBaselineRank": 122, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 5, "projectedMargin": -3.9, "projectedWinProbability": 0.425, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.5485310795224313, "offensivePlaycaller": "Tommy Rees", "offensiveCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2661, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2661, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.3, "defenseRating": 78.5, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Chargers::Derius Davis::WR", "name": "Derius Davis", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Arizona Cardinals", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 127, "seasonBaselineRank": 155, "weeklyRankDelta": 28, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 30, "projectedMargin": 5.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.607, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6534075987366713, "offensivePlaycaller": "Mike McDaniel", "offensiveCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "opponentDefenseTransition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3575, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": -1, "matchupPct": -0.7, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.2 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Efton Chism III::WR", "name": "Efton Chism III", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 128, "seasonBaselineRank": 157, "weeklyRankDelta": 29, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2841, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2841, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dareke Young::WR", "name": "Dareke Young", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 129, "seasonBaselineRank": 125, "weeklyRankDelta": -4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2738, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2804, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 71.3, "matchupDelta": -0.2, "matchupPct": -0.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 1.4 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kameron Johnson::WR", "name": "Kameron Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.02, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 130, "seasonBaselineRank": 164, "weeklyRankDelta": 34, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.6, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3524, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3255, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.7, "defenseRating": 75.9, "matchupDelta": -7.2, "matchupPct": -5, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Tai Felton::WR4", "name": "Tai Felton", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 0.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.01, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 132, "seasonBaselineRank": 83, "weeklyRankDelta": -49, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -8.9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Chicago Bears::Roschon Johnson::RB", "name": "Roschon Johnson", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Carolina Panthers", "projectedPoints": 1.4, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.4, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.4, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.3169, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 76, "seasonBaselineRank": 71, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -9, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 8, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.502, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6019241315017261, "offensivePlaycaller": "Ben Johnson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4439, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4439, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 80.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": 4.4, "matchupPct": 3.1, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 73.1, "defenseRating": 77.8, "matchupDelta": -4.7, "matchupPct": -3.3, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -3.3 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Isaiah Davis::RB", "name": "Isaiah Davis", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 1.3, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.3, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.3, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.9 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 77, "seasonBaselineRank": 98, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4389, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4562, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 67.1, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -9.7, "matchupPct": -6.8, "gameScriptPct": -0.9, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.7 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Ke'Shawn Williams::WR", "name": "Ke'Shawn Williams", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 0.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 133, "seasonBaselineRank": 158, "weeklyRankDelta": 25, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3595, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3595, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Kansas City Chiefs::Nikko Remigio::WR", "name": "Nikko Remigio", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Denver Broncos", "projectedPoints": 0.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 134, "seasonBaselineRank": 165, "weeklyRankDelta": 31, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 4, "projectedMargin": 1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.526, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6249894023506989, "offensivePlaycaller": "Andy Reid", "offensiveCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3077, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3077, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Seattle Seahawks::Nick Kallerup::TE", "name": "Nick Kallerup", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "opponent": "New England Patriots", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 84, "seasonBaselineRank": 107, "weeklyRankDelta": 23, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 9, "projectedMargin": 3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.562, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.655996025, "offensivePlaycaller": "Brian Fleury", "offensiveCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1032, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1032, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.5, "defenseRating": 76.1, "matchupDelta": -1.6, "matchupPct": -1.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New England Patriots::Cameron Latu::TE", "name": "Cameron Latu", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Seattle Seahawks", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 85, "seasonBaselineRank": 94, "weeklyRankDelta": 9, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 2, "projectedMargin": -3.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.436, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.649766448275862, "offensivePlaycaller": "Josh McDaniels", "offensiveCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 79.9, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": 3.7, "matchupPct": 2.6, "gameScriptPct": 0.5, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 3.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Denver Broncos::Nate Adkins::TE", "name": "Nate Adkins", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Kansas City Chiefs", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 86, "seasonBaselineRank": 106, "weeklyRankDelta": 20, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 11, "projectedMargin": -1.4, "projectedWinProbability": 0.471, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.65916615, "offensivePlaycaller": "Davis Webb", "offensiveCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.1066, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1066, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.2, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Ko Kieft::FB", "name": "Ko Kieft", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Cincinnati Bengals", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 87, "seasonBaselineRank": 82, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 31, "projectedMargin": -2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.448, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6556178511673152, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Robinson", "offensiveCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Al Golden", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0362, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0835, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.0997, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 71.1, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": -3.1, "matchupPct": -2.2, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Thomas Fidone II::TE", "name": "Thomas Fidone II", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 88, "seasonBaselineRank": 92, "weeklyRankDelta": 4, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0251, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0984, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1114, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Chris Manhertz::TE", "name": "Chris Manhertz", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 89, "seasonBaselineRank": 95, "weeklyRankDelta": 6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 12, "replacementValue": -9.1, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1.0251, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": true, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.0984, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.1114, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active. 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Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.025, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 66, "defenseRating": 74.8, "matchupDelta": -8.8, "matchupPct": -6.2, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -6.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tahj Brooks::RB", "name": "Tahj Brooks", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.08, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 78, "seasonBaselineRank": 72, "weeklyRankDelta": -6, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 12, "projectedMargin": 2.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.55, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5426687866336634, "offensivePlaycaller": "Zac Taylor", "offensiveCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4358, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4358, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 68.3, "defenseRating": 76.8, "matchupDelta": -8.5, "matchupPct": -5.9, "gameScriptPct": 1, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 78.3, "defenseRating": 75.3, "matchupDelta": 3, "matchupPct": 2.1, "gameScriptPct": -0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.7 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Houston Texans::British Brooks::RB", "name": "British Brooks", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Buffalo Bills", "projectedPoints": 1.2, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.2, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.2, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.7 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 79, "seasonBaselineRank": 90, "weeklyRankDelta": 11, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 19, "projectedMargin": 2.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.542, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6274053415341811, "offensivePlaycaller": "Nick Caley", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4503, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4503, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 75.6, "defenseRating": 74.6, "matchupDelta": 1, "matchupPct": 0.7, "gameScriptPct": 0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.2, "defenseRating": 75.6, "matchupDelta": -1.4, "matchupPct": -1, "gameScriptPct": -0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Tutu Atwell::WR", "name": "Tutu Atwell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.35195000000000004, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 135, "seasonBaselineRank": 135, "weeklyRankDelta": 0, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Xavier Smith::WR", "name": "Xavier Smith", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.3279000000000001, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 136, "seasonBaselineRank": 182, "weeklyRankDelta": 46, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3452, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3452, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jordan Watkins::WR", "name": "Jordan Watkins", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 137, "seasonBaselineRank": 149, "weeklyRankDelta": 12, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "San Francisco 49ers::Jacob Cowing::WR", "name": "Jacob Cowing", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Los Angeles Rams", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 138, "seasonBaselineRank": 145, "weeklyRankDelta": 7, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 1, "projectedMargin": -3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.427, "gameScript": "TRAILING", "projectedPassRate": 0.4931829862526539, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kyle Shanahan", "offensiveCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.237, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.237, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 80.4, "defenseRating": 79.1, "matchupDelta": 1.3, "matchupPct": 0.9, "gameScriptPct": 0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 1.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Indianapolis Colts::Laquon Treadwell::WR", "name": "Laquon Treadwell", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Baltimore Ravens", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 139, "seasonBaselineRank": 120, "weeklyRankDelta": -19, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 10, "projectedMargin": 0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.51, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5164096936170213, "offensivePlaycaller": "Shane Steichen", "offensiveCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3155, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3155, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.03, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.9, "defenseRating": 76.6, "matchupDelta": -1.7, "matchupPct": -1.2, "gameScriptPct": -0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 0.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Baltimore Ravens::LaJohntay Wester::WR", "name": "LaJohntay Wester", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Indianapolis Colts", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 140, "seasonBaselineRank": 159, "weeklyRankDelta": 19, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 20, "projectedMargin": -0.6, "projectedWinProbability": 0.487, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48139675000000004, "offensivePlaycaller": "Declan Doyle", "offensiveCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "opponentDefenseTransition": "stable", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "strong", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2271, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2271, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "coachingUsageReason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.05, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 77.2, "defenseRating": 75.8, "matchupDelta": 1.4, "matchupPct": 1, "gameScriptPct": 0.1, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Tim Patrick::WR", "name": "Tim Patrick", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.36685, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 141, "seasonBaselineRank": 177, "weeklyRankDelta": 36, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Jets::Arian Smith::WR", "name": "Arian Smith", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Tennessee Titans", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 142, "seasonBaselineRank": 152, "weeklyRankDelta": 10, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 21, "projectedMargin": -2.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.454, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.5856366909836066, "offensivePlaycaller": "Frank Reich", "offensiveCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "offenseTransition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "offenseCarryover": "partial", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2853, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2991, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.055, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 65.5, "defenseRating": 76.2, "matchupDelta": -10.7, "matchupPct": -7.5, "gameScriptPct": 0.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -7.1 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "New York Giants::Odell Beckham Jr.::WR4", "name": "Odell Beckham Jr.", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Dallas Cowboys", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 143, "seasonBaselineRank": 130, "weeklyRankDelta": -13, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 28, "projectedMargin": 0.2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.503, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.6112626998098859, "offensivePlaycaller": "Matt Nagy", "offensiveCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.2903, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.2948, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "LOW", "coachingUsageReason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.065, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 69.9, "defenseRating": 76.4, "matchupDelta": -6.5, "matchupPct": -4.5, "gameScriptPct": 0, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -4.6 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Minnesota Vikings::Myles Price::WR", "name": "Myles Price", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "opponent": "Green Bay Packers", "projectedPoints": 0, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0, "expectedTouchdowns": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 3.4 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 144, "seasonBaselineRank": 124, "weeklyRankDelta": -20, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 42, "replacementValue": -9.2, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 14, "projectedMargin": 1.3, "projectedWinProbability": 0.524, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.52341115, "offensivePlaycaller": "Kevin O'Connell", "offensiveCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "offenseTransition": "stable", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.3289, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.3289, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.015, "statAdjustments": { "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 72.1, "defenseRating": 76.9, "matchupDelta": -4.8, "matchupPct": -3.4, "gameScriptPct": -0.2, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": -1.8 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Miami Dolphins::Ollie Gordon II::RB", "name": "Ollie Gordon II", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Las Vegas Raiders", "projectedPoints": 1.1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1.1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1.1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.07, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.6 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 80, "seasonBaselineRank": 101, "weeklyRankDelta": 21, "recommendation": "MONITOR", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -9.3, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Availability review", "source": "frozen-game-snapshot", "detail": "The player projection carries an availability-context warning. Active roster membership does not clear that warning or confirm a full workload." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 22, "projectedMargin": -2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.461, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.48, "offensivePlaycaller": "Bobby Slowik", "offensiveCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.528, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4911, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.08, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 75.2, "matchupDelta": -0.9, "matchupPct": -0.6, "gameScriptPct": -0.8, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": -1.4 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 74.3, "defenseRating": 73.8, "matchupDelta": 0.5, "matchupPct": 0.4, "gameScriptPct": 0.3, "weatherPct": 1.8, "combinedPct": 2.5 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "INDOOR", "weatherReadiness": "Not required: indoor or weather-protected venue." }, { "id": "Los Angeles Rams::Ronnie Rivers::RB", "name": "Ronnie Rivers", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "RB", "opponent": "San Francisco 49ers", "projectedPoints": 1, "baselineProjectedPoints": 1, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 1, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.06, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.5 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 81, "seasonBaselineRank": 86, "weeklyRankDelta": 5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -9.4, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 25, "projectedMargin": 3.7, "projectedWinProbability": 0.57, "gameScript": "LEADING", "projectedPassRate": 0.6427739512711864, "offensivePlaycaller": "Sean McVay", "offensiveCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "offenseTransition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "offenseCarryover": "strong", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "opponentDefenseTransition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "partial", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4487, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4487, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "HIGH", "coachingUsageReason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast. Already included in the shared opportunity layer; no second additive adjustment.", "coachingProjectionPoints": 0, "coachingConfidencePenalty": 0.04, "statAdjustments": { "player_rush_yds": { "market": "player_rush_yds", "attackRating": 76.3, "defenseRating": 74.2, "matchupDelta": 2.1, "matchupPct": 1.5, "gameScriptPct": 1.4, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 2.9 }, "player_receptions": { "market": "player_receptions", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 }, "player_reception_yds": { "market": "player_reception_yds", "attackRating": 81.6, "defenseRating": 73.7, "matchupDelta": 7.9, "matchupPct": 5.5, "gameScriptPct": -0.6, "weatherPct": 0, "combinedPct": 4.9 } }, "opportunityBudgetPoints": 0 }, "weatherState": "LOADED", "weatherReadiness": "Kickoff forecast loaded." }, { "id": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dylan Laube::RB", "name": "Dylan Laube", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "RB", "opponent": "Miami Dolphins", "projectedPoints": 0.6, "baselineProjectedPoints": 0.6, "conditionalProjectedPoints": 0.6, "expectedTouchdowns": 0.04, "planningRange": { "low": 0, "high": 4.1 }, "confidence": 0.25, "confidenceLabel": "LOW", "positionRank": 82, "seasonBaselineRank": 77, "weeklyRankDelta": -5, "recommendation": "BENCH", "replacementRank": 30, "replacementValue": -9.8, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No current availability restriction is recorded." }, "workloadState": "FULL_BASELINE", "matchupContext": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-matchup-context-v4", "sourceGameModelVersion": "nfsmell-game-context-v6", "sourceTeamModelVersion": "team-strength-v35", "sourceRatingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-09-08T13:37:54.283860+00:00", "opponentDefenseRank": 32, "projectedMargin": 2, "projectedWinProbability": 0.537, "gameScript": "CLOSE", "projectedPassRate": 0.523040410291439, "offensivePlaycaller": "Klint Kubiak", "offensiveCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "offenseTransition": "full-reset", "offenseCarryover": "weak", "opponentDefensiveCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "opponentDefenseTransition": "full-reset", "opponentDefenseCarryover": "weak", "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "coachingUsageMultiplier": 1, "coachingUsageCentralEffect": false, "coachingUsageBaseline": 0.4548, "coachingUsageExpected": 0.4676, "coachingUsageProfileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "coachingUsageReason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact. 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