{
  "schema": 1,
  "modelVersion": "fantasy-touchdown-allocation-v1",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-05T04:10:27.528811+00:00",
  "status": "active",
  "sourceSeasons": [
    2019,
    2020,
    2021,
    2022,
    2023,
    2024,
    2025
  ],
  "evaluationSeasons": [
    2022,
    2023,
    2024,
    2025
  ],
  "population": {
    "playerTeamSeasons": 2516,
    "teamSeasons": 128,
    "positions": [
      "QB",
      "RB",
      "WR",
      "TE",
      "FB"
    ]
  },
  "target": "Allocate a team-level rushing-touchdown expectation among players.",
  "baseline": {
    "configuration": {
      "quarterbackRushingYardsWeight": 0.58,
      "otherRushingYardsWeight": 1.0,
      "priorRushingTouchdownsPerGameYardEquivalent": 0.0
    },
    "pooled": {
      "players": 2516,
      "mae": 0.6874,
      "rmse": 1.6708,
      "quarterbackMae": 1.1736,
      "quarterbackRmse": 2.2755
    }
  },
  "candidate": {
    "configuration": {
      "quarterbackRushingYardsWeight": 1.0,
      "otherRushingYardsWeight": 1.0,
      "priorRushingTouchdownsPerGameYardEquivalent": 20.0
    },
    "pooled": {
      "players": 2516,
      "mae": 0.6635,
      "rmse": 1.5857,
      "quarterbackMae": 1.1739,
      "quarterbackRmse": 2.035
    }
  },
  "bySeason": [
    {
      "season": 2022,
      "baseline": {
        "players": 648,
        "mae": 0.6731,
        "rmse": 1.5396,
        "quarterbackMae": 1.0206,
        "quarterbackRmse": 1.9024
      },
      "candidate": {
        "players": 648,
        "mae": 0.6423,
        "rmse": 1.4476,
        "quarterbackMae": 0.9089,
        "quarterbackRmse": 1.5954
      }
    },
    {
      "season": 2023,
      "baseline": {
        "players": 602,
        "mae": 0.7338,
        "rmse": 1.841,
        "quarterbackMae": 1.2271,
        "quarterbackRmse": 2.5313
      },
      "candidate": {
        "players": 602,
        "mae": 0.7213,
        "rmse": 1.7672,
        "quarterbackMae": 1.2519,
        "quarterbackRmse": 2.2745
      }
    },
    {
      "season": 2024,
      "baseline": {
        "players": 621,
        "mae": 0.6565,
        "rmse": 1.6422,
        "quarterbackMae": 1.1979,
        "quarterbackRmse": 2.3036
      },
      "candidate": {
        "players": 621,
        "mae": 0.62,
        "rmse": 1.5066,
        "quarterbackMae": 1.1859,
        "quarterbackRmse": 1.9372
      }
    },
    {
      "season": 2025,
      "baseline": {
        "players": 645,
        "mae": 0.6884,
        "rmse": 1.6576,
        "quarterbackMae": 1.2529,
        "quarterbackRmse": 2.3281
      },
      "candidate": {
        "players": 645,
        "mae": 0.6726,
        "rmse": 1.6132,
        "quarterbackMae": 1.3555,
        "quarterbackRmse": 2.2635
      }
    }
  ],
  "gates": {
    "candidateMaeImprovesEveryEvaluationSeason": true,
    "candidatePooledMaeImproves": true,
    "candidatePooledRmseImproves": true,
    "candidateQuarterbackRmseImproves": true
  },
  "limitations": [
    "This validates team rushing-touchdown allocation, not the upstream team touchdown forecast.",
    "Prior-season players who change teams retain only their individual prior rushing profile.",
    "Rookies and players without prior-season evidence receive no historical touchdown-role weight.",
    "The candidate nearly matches pooled quarterback MAE while materially improving quarterback RMSE and overall MAE/RMSE."
  ],
  "sourceFiles": [
    {
      "path": "app/backend/data/validation_cache/stats_player_week_2019.parquet",
      "sha256": "1a80298e2aca5a830e0dcfeb834c220bc79918211dc42e2f1e46acc39cd437c9"
    },
    {
      "path": "app/backend/data/validation_cache/stats_player_week_2020.parquet",
      "sha256": "e788d88318a6e99b8005c1c9814423d05bb91f757d5d977d3280f2eb83927b23"
    },
    {
      "path": "app/backend/data/validation_cache/stats_player_week_2021.parquet",
      "sha256": "2c6894499e96dcf20b060969c607a0ff4e2018f369efad6e97d88abbe77b7277"
    },
    {
      "path": "app/backend/data/validation_cache/stats_player_week_2022.parquet",
      "sha256": "64c1684938b029d68e33d7852cbee918266c8ac7f30b4c097c0a8912b4384e52"
    },
    {
      "path": "app/backend/data/validation_cache/stats_player_week_2023.parquet",
      "sha256": "ac776fbd7c9fefdb4069b72304f4c5fa05ae417acd49f6e4e27be14b9d7a4bbc"
    },
    {
      "path": "app/backend/data/validation_cache/stats_player_week_2024.parquet",
      "sha256": "847569d194ca3d96b5efcf91e6eac5e18780fc47568a713fd545a82d29d155c1"
    },
    {
      "path": "app/backend/data/validation_cache/stats_player_week_2025.parquet",
      "sha256": "2a461becaa9adb3c93a3074a3a31f1e960162a50163371a2d34e28393b5fff10"
    }
  ]
}