QB GRADE RECEIPT

Daniel Jones

Indianapolis Colts / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING77.3B

POSITION RANK#20of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Established starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form74.0

Player-created value77.3

Next-season projection79.1

Verified athleticism76.0

Proven NFL resume77.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

Only the projection component is walk-forward validated. Current form and career resume are descriptive; players within 1.5 points share an overlap range instead of a claimed exact rank.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.169

68th percentile

Espn QBR63

67th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.181

80th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate49.9

73rd percentile

Passing CPOE2.341

71st percentile

First Down Rate37.3

87th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3.423

37th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate70.1

54th percentile

84.7 season score451 qualifying plays