QB GRADE RECEIPT

Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING78.0B

POSITION RANK#18of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Established starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form74.0

Player-created value78.0

Next-season projection78.9

Proven NFL resume79.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2025 7% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.055

46th percentile

Espn QBR58.3

50th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.096

54th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate46.4

65th percentile

Passing CPOE-1.800

26th percentile

First Down Rate34.3

69th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3

47th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate67.6

32nd percentile

76.6 season score683 qualifying plays75.0 postseason score