QB GRADE RECEIPT

Kyler Murray

Minnesota Vikings / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING81.1B+

POSITION RANK#13of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Quality starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form76.0

Player-created value81.1

Next-season projection80.1

Proven NFL resume86.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

Only the projection component is walk-forward validated. Current form and career resume are descriptive; players within 1.5 points share an overlap range instead of a claimed exact rank.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.013

41st percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.048

43rd percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate42.9

38th percentile

Passing CPOE-0.462

39th percentile

First Down Rate29.1

27th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate2.260

58th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate69.4

49th percentile

Total TD Rate3.398

35th percentile

71.0 season score206 qualifying plays