QB GRADE RECEIPT

Justin Herbert

Los Angeles Chargers / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING82.7B+

POSITION RANK#11of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Quality starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form77.0

Player-created value82.7

Next-season projection83.6

Verified athleticism83.0

Proven NFL resume85.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2025 8%, 2024 7% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.032

41st percentile

Espn QBR60.6

55th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.049

40th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate45.6

57th percentile

Passing CPOE1.456

49th percentile

First Down Rate32.2

52nd percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3.004

45th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate67.2

25th percentile

74.3 season score649 qualifying plays75.0 postseason score