QB GRADE RECEIPT

Jayden Daniels

Washington Commanders / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING79.2B

POSITION RANK#16of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Established starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form76.0

Player-created value79.2

Next-season projection83.0

Proven NFL resume76.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2024 13% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback-0.020

37th percentile

Total EPA Per Play-0.011

32nd percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate44.8

50th percentile

Passing CPOE-2.908

28th percentile

First Down Rate27.7

22nd percentile

Interception Worthy Rate1.463

66th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate69.6

49th percentile

Total TD Rate3.788

36th percentile

67.0 season score264 qualifying plays