QB GRADE RECEIPT

Bo Nix

Denver Broncos / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING77.3B

POSITION RANK#21of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Established starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form75.0

Player-created value77.3

Next-season projection79.6

Proven NFL resume76.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2025 9%, 2024 6% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.083

60th percentile

Espn QBR58.3

50th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.100

60th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate43.8

43rd percentile

Passing CPOE-1.133

29th percentile

First Down Rate30.8

34th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3.292

35th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate71.3

65th percentile

75.6 season score717 qualifying plays76.2 postseason score