QB GRADE RECEIPT

Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING79.6B

POSITION RANK#15of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Established starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form76.0

Player-created value79.6

Next-season projection79.2

Verified athleticism71.0

Proven NFL resume82.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2024 5%, 2023 11% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.022

35th percentile

Espn QBR61.3

58th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.057

43rd percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate43.7

40th percentile

Passing CPOE-2.221

21st percentile

First Down Rate31.4

40th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate2.568

55th percentile

Catchable Pass Rate67.4

30th percentile

67.2 season score634 qualifying plays