Will Reichard

Model receipt

Kicker production uses sample-shrunk accuracy by distance band, extra points, workload, and range.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024 seasons.

OVR uses the conservative one-season specialist projection because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

OVR preserves that forecast ordering on the common position-relative grade scale; the separately displayed projection stays regressed for uncertainty and team impact.