K GRADE RECEIPT

Matt Gay

Las Vegas Raiders / K / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING68.2C+

POSITION RANK#25of 32 rated Ks

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Rotation-level forecastconservative one-season specialist projection

Current form76.0

Player-created value68.2

Next-season projection73.0

Production forecast73.0

Position-relative forecast grade68.2

Model receipt

Kicker production uses sample-shrunk accuracy by distance band, extra points, workload, and range.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

OVR uses the conservative one-season specialist projection because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

OVR preserves that forecast ordering on the common position-relative grade scale; the separately displayed projection stays regressed for uncertainty and team impact.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Long Fg Pct Shrunk55.1

40th percentile

Medium Fg Pct Shrunk88.6

54th percentile

Pat Pct Shrunk98.6

64th percentile

Short Fg Pct Shrunk90.8

38th percentile

Fg Attempts Per Game1.917

46th percentile

Long Fg56

38th percentile

68.2 season score49 qualifying plays