K GRADE RECEIPT

Wil Lutz

Denver Broncos / K / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING90.5A

POSITION RANK#4of 32 rated Ks

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Solid production forecastconservative one-season specialist projection

Current form87.0

Player-created value90.5

Next-season projection79.7

Production forecast79.7

Position-relative forecast grade90.5

Model receipt

Kicker production uses sample-shrunk accuracy by distance band, extra points, workload, and range.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

OVR uses the conservative one-season specialist projection because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

OVR preserves that forecast ordering on the common position-relative grade scale; the separately displayed projection stays regressed for uncertainty and team impact.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Long Fg Pct Shrunk72

52nd percentile

Medium Fg Pct Shrunk72.3

44th percentile

Pat Pct Shrunk99

79th percentile

Short Fg Pct Shrunk98.3

77th percentile

Fg Attempts Per Game1.882

40th percentile

Long Fg57

46th percentile

90.5 season score71 qualifying plays