K GRADE RECEIPT

Harrison Butker

Kansas City Chiefs / K / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING64.1C

POSITION RANK#28of 32 rated Ks

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Rotation-level forecastconservative one-season specialist projection

Current form68.0

Player-created value64.1

Next-season projection71.7

Production forecast71.7

Position-relative forecast grade64.1

Model receipt

Kicker production uses sample-shrunk accuracy by distance band, extra points, workload, and range.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

OVR uses the conservative one-season specialist projection because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

OVR preserves that forecast ordering on the common position-relative grade scale; the separately displayed projection stays regressed for uncertainty and team impact.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Long Fg Pct Shrunk64.8

46th percentile

Medium Fg Pct Shrunk81.1

44th percentile

Pat Pct Shrunk89.6

21st percentile

Short Fg Pct Shrunk98.2

72nd percentile

Fg Attempts Per Game2.235

72nd percentile

Long Fg59

64th percentile

64.1 season score73 qualifying plays