TE GRADE RECEIPT

Jake Ferguson

Dallas Cowboys / TE / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING64.7C

POSITION RANK#28of 32 rated TEs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Below starter baselinevalidated two-season forecast

Current form67.0

Player-created value64.7

Next-season projection67.8

Production forecast67.8

Position-relative forecast grade64.7

TE production measures receiving value and opportunity; public data does not isolate individual blocking quality.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Prospect pedigree and testing are context only; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.

OVR uses the validated two-season forecast because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Receiving EPA Per Target0.187

43rd percentile

First Down Rate29.4

34th percentile

Targets Per Game6

63rd percentile

Yac Above Expectation0.181

49th percentile

Drop Pct2

60th percentile

Air Yards Share9.765

32nd percentile

Avg Separation3.307

46th percentile

Snap Pct66.7

42nd percentile

69.5 season score102 qualifying plays