52nd percentile
DE GRADE RECEIPT
T.J. Watt
Pittsburgh Steelers / LOLB / Healthy
Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT
NFSMELL RATING90.1A
POSITION RANK#13of 86 rated DEs
WHY THIS RATING
Grade components
High-end production forecastvalidated three-season edge forecast
Current form91.0
Player-created value90.1
Next-season projection87.1
Production forecast87.1
Position-relative forecast grade90.1
Model receipt
Edge production uses pressure, non-sack backfield disruption, tackling, missed tackles, forced fumbles, and availability.
The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.
Prospect pedigree and testing are context only; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.
OVR uses the validated three-season edge forecast because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.
The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.
2025 PERFORMANCE
Position-specific metrics
92nd percentile
57th percentile
50th percentile
44th percentile
69th percentile
88.0 season score864 qualifying plays