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DT GRADE RECEIPT

Colby Wooden

New Orleans Saints / INTERIOR DL / Healthy

Models: player-forecast-v41 / player-performance-v18 / team-strength-v39Context: coaching-context-v1 Data updated: October 9, 2026 at 8:29 PM EDTVerify live snapshot Verify release manifest Verify deployment
Colby Wooden, New Orleans Saints DT
FORECAST ESTIMATEExecution not gradedLIMITED EXECUTION confidence · review state
PROVISIONAL FORECAST70.7PROXY
Separate forecast OVR: 70.7. Team impact: 70.6.
EXECUTION ORDER UNRESOLVEDTier firstProduction ordering is not a validated ranking of assignment execution.

What the evidence supports

This score forecasts statistical production. Assignment-level execution is not established; use it with role and evidence context, not as a definitive best-player ranking.

Context still needed: double teams and gap responsibility; run-stop quality; pass-rush snaps and win rate.

SCORE KEY

Current performance comes first

Current grade measures qualifying production recorded this season against position peers, with sample adjustment. It is not complete football ability. Without qualifying current evidence, a clearly labeled forecast estimate remains visible. Defensive assignments and individual blocking require additional evidence.

Current gradeThis season's observed production
Recent productionOpponent and sample adjusted
Forecast OVRSeparate longer-term estimate
Team impactSeparate roster and availability input
2026 PRODUCTION CONTEXT

Talent, opportunity, coaching, and availability kept separate

Colby Wooden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only. This is a downstream production index, not a rewrite of the 70.7 player OVR.

70.8 base production70.8 context adjusted0.0 context delta63.3-78.3 heuristic planning range
DEFENSIVE COORDINATORBrandon Staley. Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation.
AVAILABILITY · CLEARNo availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot.
SEASON SCHEDULEThe current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning.
WORKLOAD · NO ACTIVE RECEIPTNo attributable season-long workload restriction is active.
Open context effects and weekly opponent policy

Uncertainty: Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR.

Position contract: dt-production-context-v1 · coaching gate RESEARCH WITHHELD.

Position coaching driver: Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation.

Season levers: technique and alignment · pass-rush share · run-down share · rotation.

Weekly matchup levers: opposing interior line · double-team environment · dropback volume · run rate · score state.

Injury and workload levers: snap cap · rotation change · return ramp · adjacent-line availability.

Validation state: Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier.

Weekly opponent layer: Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.

Receipt: player-production-context-v1 · coaching coaching-context-v1 · workload fantasy-workload-context-v2

PLAYER SIGNALS

Scouting tags with receipts

QUIET RUSHERwarning

Pressures Per 100 Snaps: 0.68 in 2025; bottom 8% at DT.

Descriptive signal · zero direct grade impact
BACKFIELD TENANTperformance

Non-Sack Tackles For Loss Per 100 Snaps: 1.02 in 2025; top 8% at DT.

Descriptive signal · zero direct grade impact
📍 Limited roleathletic

Played 51% of available team snaps

Descriptive signal · zero direct grade impact
SEPARATE FORECAST RECEIPT

Supporting forecast inputs

Rotation-level forecastvalidated three-season interior forecast
MISSING CURRENT SEASON EVIDENCELatest qualifying position evidence is 1 season(s) old.
PARTICIPATION QUALITY CONFOUNDSnaps and tackle frequency carry 40% of the latest production contract. These measure opportunity as well as execution; they do not establish assignment quality.

These inputs reproduce the separate 70.7 forecast OVR, not the current-season headline grade. Team impact remains a separately evaluated roster input.

Current-team impact: 70.6. This forecast-heavy value feeds the New Orleans Saints roster model after role and availability treatment.

Rank gate: Position-specific sample threshold met. Sample progress: 100%.

Uncertainty: One decimal supports ordering; the range is a heuristic, not a calibrated confidence interval. Typical next-season absolute error is 7.5 points; empirical interval coverage has not yet been calibrated.

Open exact supporting signals
Recent production · 0%69.2
Rate-based production signal · 0%72.4
Next-season projection · 100%71.0

Model receipt

Interior-line production uses pressure, non-sack backfield disruption, tackling, missed tackles, forced fumbles, and availability.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024 seasons.

Current-form overlay: 62.7 vs 68.4 baseline, applied -0.3 OVR with a 1.5-point cap; rank eligibility is unchanged.

Prospect pedigree and testing are context only after the early-career prior expires; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.

The projection component uses the validated three-season interior forecast because it outperformed the prior forecast in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Pressures Per 100 Snaps0.681
20th percentile
Snap Pct51.9
39th percentile
Non Sack Tfl Per 100 Snaps1.022
75th percentile
Tackles Per 100 Snaps8.518
71st percentile
Missed Tackle Pct7.407
49th percentile
Forced Fumbles Per 100 Snaps0
44th percentile
PLAYER-CREATED VALUE

Opportunity-neutral indicators

This facet removes role-volume fields where the public data supports it, so targets, touches, and snap share do not masquerade as ability.

Pressures Per 100 Snaps0.681
20th percentile
Non Sack Tfl Per 100 Snaps1.022
75th percentile
Tackles Per 100 Snaps8.518
71st percentile
Missed Tackle Pct7.407
49th percentile
Forced Fumbles Per 100 Snaps0
44th percentile
Neutral signal recent-form input587 qualifying plays
Exact normalized form valuesRegular/recent season: 68.4 / 100