WR GRADE RECEIPT

Justin Jefferson

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING80.0B+

POSITION RANK#11of 128 rated WRs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Quality starter forecastevidence-shrunk multi-season

Current form81.0

Player-created value80.7

Next-season projection77.7

Production forecast80.0

Position-relative forecast grade80.0

WR production uses EPA per target, first-down rate, opportunity, YAC over expected, drops, air-yards share, and separation.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Prospect pedigree and testing are context only; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Receiving EPA Per Target-0.098

15th percentile

First Down Rate33.3

37th percentile

Targets Per Game8.294

78th percentile

Yac Above Expectation0.779

63rd percentile

Drop Pct2.100

70th percentile

Air Yards Share38.4

83rd percentile

Avg Separation3.233

75th percentile

71.5 season score141 qualifying plays