QB GRADE RECEIPT

Tua Tagovailoa

Atlanta Falcons / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING77.9B

POSITION RANK#19of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Established starterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form80.0

Player-created value77.9

Next-season projection76.1

Proven NFL resume79.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2023 8% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.035

44th percentile

Espn QBR37.5

20th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.016

33rd percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate45.1

54th percentile

Passing CPOE2.045

63rd percentile

First Down Rate32.9

57th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate4.819

23rd percentile

Catchable Pass Rate70.4

61st percentile

71.4 season score434 qualifying plays