63rd percentile
WR GRADE RECEIPT
Justin Watson
Houston Texans / WR3 / Healthy
Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT
NFSMELL RATING69.4C+
POSITION RANK#88of 128 rated WRs
WHY THIS RATING
Grade components
Rotation-level forecastevidence-shrunk multi-season
Current form67.0
Player-created value69.7
Next-season projection71.9
Production forecast69.4
Position-relative forecast grade69.4
Model receipt
WR production uses EPA per target, first-down rate, opportunity, YAC over expected, drops, air-yards share, and separation.
The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2024, 2023 seasons.
Prospect pedigree and testing are context only; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.
The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.
2024 PERFORMANCE
Position-specific metrics
52nd percentile
25th percentile
44th percentile
75.0 season score32 qualifying plays