WR GRADE RECEIPT

Josh Downs

Model version: player-forecast-v25 Data updated: August 28, 2026 at 10:30 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING62.8C

POSITION RANK#119of 128 rated WRs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Below starter baselineevidence-shrunk multi-season

Current form62.0

Player-created value62.4

Next-season projection64.8

Production forecast62.8

Position-relative forecast grade62.8

WR production uses EPA per target, first-down rate, opportunity, YAC over expected, drops, air-yards share, and separation.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Prospect pedigree and testing are context only; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Receiving EPA Per Target0.098

33rd percentile

First Down Rate40.9

55th percentile

Targets Per Game5.500

16th percentile

Yac Above Expectation0.134

30th percentile

Drop Pct4.500

45th percentile

Air Yards Share15.9

20th percentile

Avg Separation2.681

45th percentile

55.2 season score88 qualifying plays