QB GRADE RECEIPT

Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears / QB / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT

NFSMELL RATING73.8B-

POSITION RANK#26of 32 rated QBs

WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

StarterQB Index: validated projection plus current form and maturity-shrunk NFL resume

Current form64.0

Player-created value73.8

Next-season projection76.3

Proven NFL resume76.0

Model receipt

QB Index combines a walk-forward validated QBR projection, opponent-adjusted current form with FTN charting, and a maturity-shrunk NFL resume from weighted AV and documented honors.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024 seasons.

Postseason evidence is scored separately against regular-season peers and sample-shrunk (2025 11% of each season score).

FTN manual charting is credited to FTN Data via nflverse; ESPN QBR is an independent modest-weight context signal.

QB Index weights the validated next-season QBR projection 45%, opponent-adjusted current form 20%, and proven NFL resume 35%.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Opponent Adjusted EPA Per Dropback0.062

54th percentile

Espn QBR58.2

45th percentile

Total EPA Per Play0.071

46th percentile

Opponent Adjusted Success Rate43.6

35th percentile

Passing CPOE-3.419

12th percentile

First Down Rate32.1

46th percentile

Interception Worthy Rate3.030

42nd percentile

Catchable Pass Rate67.9

38th percentile

73.2 season score669 qualifying plays76.2 postseason score