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DE GRADE RECEIPT

Arden Key

Indianapolis Colts / LDE / Healthy

Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT
NFSMELL RATING78.2B
POSITION RANK#41of 86 rated DEs
WHY THIS RATING

Grade components

Solid production forecastvalidated three-season edge forecast
Current form77.0
Player-created value78.2
Next-season projection77.6
Production forecast77.6
Position-relative forecast grade78.2

Model receipt

Edge production uses pressure, non-sack backfield disruption, tackling, missed tackles, forced fumbles, and availability.

The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.

Prospect pedigree and testing are context only; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.

OVR uses the validated three-season edge forecast because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.

The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.

2025 PERFORMANCE

Position-specific metrics

Pressures Per 100 Snaps4.009
62nd percentile
Snap Pct59.3
47th percentile
Non Sack Tfl Per 100 Snaps0.445
58th percentile
Tackles Per 100 Snaps4.900
25th percentile
Missed Tackle Pct4.348
68th percentile
Forced Fumbles Per 100 Snaps0
42nd percentile
79.0 season score449 qualifying plays