62nd percentile
DE GRADE RECEIPT
Arden Key
Indianapolis Colts / LDE / Healthy
Model version: player-forecast-v24 Data updated: August 24, 2026 at 6:13 PM EDT
NFSMELL RATING78.2B
POSITION RANK#41of 86 rated DEs
WHY THIS RATING
Grade components
Solid production forecastvalidated three-season edge forecast
Current form77.0
Player-created value78.2
Next-season projection77.6
Production forecast77.6
Position-relative forecast grade78.2
Model receipt
Edge production uses pressure, non-sack backfield disruption, tackling, missed tackles, forced fumbles, and availability.
The displayed performance component is recency-weighted across qualifying 2025, 2024, 2023 seasons.
Prospect pedigree and testing are context only; qualifying NFL production is authoritative.
OVR uses the validated three-season edge forecast because it outperformed the prior composite in the 2024-2025 walk-forward audit.
The non-QB forecast target is next-season position-relative production, not an independent film or talent grade.
2025 PERFORMANCE
Position-specific metrics
47th percentile
58th percentile
25th percentile
68th percentile
42nd percentile
79.0 season score449 qualifying plays