PASS
The win-probability gap is too small after removing sportsbook vig.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC
AWAY
Washington Commanders
19.432.4% WINMODEL SCORE@12,000 simulations
HOMEPhiladelphia Eagles
26.667.3% WINPublished 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-4 -116AWAY SPREAD+4 +103TOTAL46.5HOME ML-225AWAY ML+194SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread +0.5; total +1. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
PASS
The projected cover rate does not clear the uncertainty buffer.
PASS
The scoring projection is too close to the market total.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.