San Francisco 49ers ML
San Francisco 49ers has the larger de-vigged win-probability gap. Capped at LEAN because the game is still on the early board and the line is from one book, not a market consensus and official injury reports are not loaded.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
Friday, September 11, 2026 at 12:35 AM UTC
Published 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-3 -125AWAY SPREAD+3 +111TOTAL48.5HOME ML-187AWAY ML+163SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread +0.5; total 0. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
San Francisco 49ers +3
The model margin clears the listed spread after its evidence-confidence shrinkage.
PASS
The scoring projection is too close to the market total.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.