Detroit Lions ML
Detroit Lions has the larger de-vigged win-probability gap.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC
Published 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-7 -104AWAY SPREAD+7 -108TOTAL49.5HOME ML-319AWAY ML+265SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total +1. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Verify roster, injury, venue, and price inputs.
Under 49.5
The pace, scoring-strength, and available weather inputs create a meaningful total gap.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherdome
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.