New England Patriots ML
New England Patriots has the larger de-vigged win-probability gap. Capped at LEAN because the game is still on the early board and the line is from one book, not a market consensus and official injury reports are not loaded.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 12:20 AM UTC
AWAY
New England Patriots
21.943.1% WINMODEL SCORE@12,000 simulations
HOMESeattle Seahawks
24.556.6% WINPublished 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-3.5 -101AWAY SPREAD+3.5 -111TOTAL44.5HOME ML-181AWAY ML+159SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total 0. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
New England Patriots +3.5
The model margin clears the listed spread after its evidence-confidence shrinkage.
PASS
The scoring projection is too close to the market total.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
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