Miami Dolphins ML
Miami Dolphins has the larger de-vigged win-probability gap.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC
Published 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-3.5 -108AWAY SPREAD+3.5 -104TOTAL40.5HOME ML-194AWAY ML+169SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total 0. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
PASS
The projected cover rate does not clear the uncertainty buffer.
PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Recheck weather, pace, and price inputs.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherdome
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.