PASS
The win-probability gap is too small after removing sportsbook vig.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:15 AM UTC
Published 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-3 +107AWAY SPREAD+3 -120TOTAL43HOME ML-146AWAY ML+129SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total +0.5. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
Kansas City Chiefs -3
The model margin clears the listed spread after its evidence-confidence shrinkage.
PASS
The scoring projection is too close to the market total.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.