PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Verify roster, injury, venue, and price inputs.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC
AWAY
Cleveland Browns
15.931.3% WINMODEL SCORE@12,000 simulations
HOMEJacksonville Jaguars
23.668.4% WINPublished 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-7.5 -116AWAY SPREAD+7.5 +104TOTAL40.5HOME ML-386AWAY ML+313SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total 0. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
Cleveland Browns +7.5
The model margin clears the listed spread after its evidence-confidence shrinkage. Capped at LEAN because the game is still on the early board and the line is from one book, not a market consensus and official injury reports are not loaded.
Under 40.5
The pace, scoring-strength, and available weather inputs create a meaningful total gap.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.