PASS
The win-probability gap is too small after removing sportsbook vig.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC
Published 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD+2.5 +101AWAY SPREAD-2.5 -114TOTAL47.5HOME ML+131AWAY ML-148SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total 0. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
Chicago Bears -2.5
The model margin clears the listed spread after its evidence-confidence shrinkage.
PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Recheck weather, pace, and price inputs.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.