PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Verify roster, injury, venue, and price inputs.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC
Published 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD+1 -115AWAY SPREAD-1 +102TOTAL44HOME ML-107AWAY ML-105SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread -0.5; total -0.5. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
Houston Texans +1
The model margin clears the listed spread after its evidence-confidence shrinkage. Capped at LEAN because the game is still on the early board and the line is from one book, not a market consensus and official injury reports are not loaded.
PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Recheck weather, pace, and price inputs.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherdome
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.