PASS
The win-probability gap is too small after removing sportsbook vig.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM UTC
Published 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-3 -114AWAY SPREAD+3 +102TOTAL41.5HOME ML-170AWAY ML+150SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total 0. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
PASS
The projected cover rate does not clear the uncertainty buffer.
Over 41.5
The pace, scoring-strength, and available weather inputs create a meaningful total gap.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.