PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Verify roster, injury, venue, and price inputs.
FROZEN PREGAME RECEIPT
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 8:25 PM UTC
AWAY
Arizona Cardinals
20.836.8% WINMODEL SCORE@12,000 simulations
HOMELos Angeles Chargers
26.063.0% WINPublished 8/30/2026, 4:24:32 AM · nfsmell-game-context-v4 · team-strength-v23
MARKET RECEIPT
The number the model faced
HOME SPREAD-10.5 +105AWAY SPREAD+10.5 -118TOTAL47HOME ML-510AWAY ML+395SOURCEpinnacle-public
Snapshot contained 1 qualifying source. Tracked movement: home spread 0; total +0.5. This page preserves the published price rather than silently replacing it later.
MODEL DECISIONS
Pick, lean, or pass
PASS
The model-market gap is unusually large and fails the missing-context sanity check. Verify roster, injury, venue, and price inputs.
Under 47
The pace, scoring-strength, and available weather inputs create a meaningful total gap.
EVIDENCE GATES
- Board timingEarly board: picks are capped at lean.
- Injuriesunavailable
- Weatherpending
- Moneylinesloaded
- Side pricesLoaded from the captured market.
LIVE BOARD
Open current board Compare this receipt with the current market.
The permanent page never rewrites its original projection. The betting board may show newer prices and availability evidence.