{ "schema": 1, "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:29:53.005648+00:00", "ratingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-10-10T00:29:53.005648+00:00", "contract": { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "season": 2026, "generatedAt": "2026-10-10T00:29:53.005648+00:00", "ratingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-10-10T00:29:53.005648+00:00", "players": 1686, "coachingUsageModelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "workloadModelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "centralCoachingPositions": [ "TE" ], "positionContracts": { "QB": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD" }, "RB": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD" }, "FB": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "WR": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD" }, "TE": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED" }, "OL": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "EDGE": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "DT": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "LB": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "CB": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "S": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "K": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "P": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" }, "LS": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD" } }, "policy": "Talent OVR remains position-relative. Coaching, schedule, verified workload, and current availability alter only downstream production and fantasy decisions; opponent-specific context is recomputed each week." }, "summary": { "players": 1686, "adjusted": 474, "monitored": 743, "withheld": 1, "positions": { "CB": { "players": 183, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 115, "withheld": 0 }, "DT": { "players": 170, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 97, "withheld": 0 }, "EDGE": { "players": 160, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 95, "withheld": 0 }, "FB": { "players": 13, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 9, "withheld": 0 }, "K": { "players": 32, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 11, "withheld": 0 }, "LB": { "players": 149, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 89, "withheld": 0 }, "LS": { "players": 32, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 13, "withheld": 0 }, "OL": { "players": 293, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 207, "withheld": 0 }, "P": { "players": 33, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 11, "withheld": 1 }, "QB": { "players": 89, "adjusted": 86, "monitored": 3, "withheld": 0 }, "RB": { "players": 103, "adjusted": 101, "monitored": 0, "withheld": 0 }, "S": { "players": 132, "adjusted": 0, "monitored": 83, "withheld": 0 }, "TE": { "players": 118, "adjusted": 114, "monitored": 4, "withheld": 0 }, "WR": { "players": 179, "adjusted": 173, "monitored": 6, "withheld": 0 } } }, "receipts": [ { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Andrew Billings::DT", "playerName": "Andrew Billings", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.5, "high": 78.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Andrew Billings's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Andrew Wingard::FS", "playerName": "Andrew Wingard", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.6, "high": 84.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Andrew Wingard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Bam Knight::RB", "playerName": "Bam Knight", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 85.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4099, "expectedUsage": 0.4341, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9979, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Bam Knight's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Baron Browning::ROLB", "playerName": "Baron Browning", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 70.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Baron Browning's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Blake Gillikin::P", "playerName": "Blake Gillikin", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Blake Gillikin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Budda Baker::SS", "playerName": "Budda Baker", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 86, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.6, "high": 95.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Budda Baker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Carson Beck::QB", "playerName": "Carson Beck", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.6394, "expectedUsage": 0.6082, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Carson Beck's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Casey Kreiter::LS", "playerName": "Casey Kreiter", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.4, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Casey Kreiter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Chad Ryland::K", "playerName": "Chad Ryland", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chad Ryland's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Cody Simon::LB", "playerName": "Cody Simon", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cody Simon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Dadrion Taylor-Demerson::S", "playerName": "Dadrion Taylor-Demerson", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dadrion Taylor-Demerson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Dante Stills::DT", "playerName": "Dante Stills", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.7, "high": 74.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dante Stills's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Darius Robinson::DT", "playerName": "Darius Robinson", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Darius Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Denzel Burke::CB2", "playerName": "Denzel Burke", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Denzel Burke's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Devin Duvernay::WR", "playerName": "Devin Duvernay", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 54.9, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2709, "expectedUsage": 0.2979, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Devin Duvernay's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Eku Leota::EDGE", "playerName": "Eku Leota", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Eku Leota's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Elijah Higgins::FB", "playerName": "Elijah Higgins", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": -4, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9467, "baselineUsage": 0.2148, "expectedUsage": 0.1633, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 5.3%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Elijah Higgins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Elijah Wilkinson::RT", "playerName": "Elijah Wilkinson", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 88 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Elijah Wilkinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Gardner Minshew::QB", "playerName": "Gardner Minshew", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.6394, "expectedUsage": 0.6082, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Gardner Minshew's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Garrett Williams::CB", "playerName": "Garrett Williams", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Garrett Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Hayden Conner::OL", "playerName": "Hayden Conner", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Hayden Conner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Hjalte Froholdt::C", "playerName": "Hjalte Froholdt", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.7, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Hjalte Froholdt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Isaac Seumalo::LG", "playerName": "Isaac Seumalo", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.1, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Isaac Seumalo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Isaiah Adams::RG", "playerName": "Isaiah Adams", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Isaiah Adams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jack Gibbens::RILB", "playerName": "Jack Gibbens", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.6, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Gibbens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jacoby Brissett::QB", "playerName": "Jacoby Brissett", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.6394, "expectedUsage": 0.6082, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jacoby Brissett's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jalen Brooks::WR4", "playerName": "Jalen Brooks", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.9, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2709, "expectedUsage": 0.2979, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jalen Brooks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jayden Williams::LT", "playerName": "Jayden Williams", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jayden Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jedrick Wills::OL", "playerName": "Jedrick Wills", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jedrick Wills's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jeremiyah Love::RB", "playerName": "Jeremiyah Love", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4099, "expectedUsage": 0.4341, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9979, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jeremiyah Love's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jon Gaines II::OL", "playerName": "Jon Gaines II", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.3, "high": 77.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jon Gaines II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Jordan Burch::EDGE", "playerName": "Jordan Burch", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 60.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 60.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.4, "high": 69.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Burch's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Josh Fryar::OL", "playerName": "Josh Fryar", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Josh Fryar's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Josh Sweat::LDE", "playerName": "Josh Sweat", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.5, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Sweat's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Kalen King::CB", "playerName": "Kalen King", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kalen King's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Karson Sharar::LOLB", "playerName": "Karson Sharar", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 86.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Karson Sharar's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Kei'Trel Clark::CB1", "playerName": "Kei'Trel Clark", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kei'Trel Clark's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Kendrick Bourne::WR3", "playerName": "Kendrick Bourne", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2709, "expectedUsage": 0.2979, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kendrick Bourne's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::L.J. Collier::DT", "playerName": "L.J. Collier", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.5, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "L.J. Collier's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Mack Wilson Sr.::MLB", "playerName": "Mack Wilson Sr.", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mack Wilson Sr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Marvin Harrison Jr.::WR1", "playerName": "Marvin Harrison Jr.", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2709, "expectedUsage": 0.2979, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Marvin Harrison Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Max Melton::NB", "playerName": "Max Melton", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Max Melton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Michael Wilson::WR2", "playerName": "Michael Wilson", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2709, "expectedUsage": 0.2979, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Michael Wilson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Reggie Virgil::WR", "playerName": "Reggie Virgil", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.4, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2709, "expectedUsage": 0.2979, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Reggie Virgil's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Roy Lopez::DT1", "playerName": "Roy Lopez", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Roy Lopez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Simi Fehoko::WR", "playerName": "Simi Fehoko", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.6, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2709, "expectedUsage": 0.2979, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Simi Fehoko's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Starling Thomas V::CB", "playerName": "Starling Thomas V", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.2, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Starling Thomas V's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Teagan Quitoriano::TE", "playerName": "Teagan Quitoriano", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.5, "contextDelta": -3.6, "planningRange": { "low": 46, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9467, "baselineUsage": 0.2148, "expectedUsage": 0.1633, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 5.3%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Teagan Quitoriano's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Trey McBride::TE", "playerName": "Trey McBride", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": -4.3, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9467, "baselineUsage": 0.2148, "expectedUsage": 0.1633, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9982, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 5.3%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Trey McBride's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Tyler Allgeier::RB", "playerName": "Tyler Allgeier", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Nathaniel Hackett", "priorLead": "Drew Petzing", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4099, "expectedUsage": 0.4341, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9979, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike LaFleur transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyler Allgeier's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Walter Nolen III::DT2", "playerName": "Walter Nolen III", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.7, "high": 86.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Walter Nolen III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Wydett Williams Jr.::S", "playerName": "Wydett Williams Jr.", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.7, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Wydett Williams Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Arizona Cardinals::Zaven Collins::RDE", "playerName": "Zaven Collins", "teamName": "Arizona Cardinals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 75.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Nick Rallis", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Rallis", "priorLead": "Nick Rallis", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Nick Rallis transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zaven Collins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Austin Hooper::TE", "playerName": "Austin Hooper", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1243, "expectedUsage": 0.1243, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Austin Hooper's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Avieon Terrell::NB", "playerName": "Avieon Terrell", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Avieon Terrell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Bijan Robinson::RB", "playerName": "Bijan Robinson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 84.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.5, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 73.1, "high": 95.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.546, "expectedUsage": 0.546, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0019, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Bijan Robinson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Billy Bowman Jr.::CB1", "playerName": "Billy Bowman Jr.", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Billy Bowman Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Brandon Dorlus::DT2", "playerName": "Brandon Dorlus", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 72.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Brandon Dorlus's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Brian Robinson::RB", "playerName": "Brian Robinson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.546, "expectedUsage": 0.546, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0019, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Brian Robinson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::C.J. Henderson::CB", "playerName": "C.J. Henderson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 84.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "C.J. Henderson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Cameron Thomas::LDE", "playerName": "Cameron Thomas", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.6, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cameron Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Charlie Woerner::FB", "playerName": "Charlie Woerner", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1243, "expectedUsage": 0.1243, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Charlie Woerner's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Chris Blair::WR", "playerName": "Chris Blair", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.4, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2661, "expectedUsage": 0.2661, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chris Blair's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Chris Lindstrom::RG", "playerName": "Chris Lindstrom", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.9, "high": 92.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Chris Lindstrom's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Christian Harris::LB", "playerName": "Christian Harris", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.9, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Harris's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Cooper Rush::QB", "playerName": "Cooper Rush", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5333, "expectedUsage": 0.5333, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cooper Rush's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Corey Levin::OL", "playerName": "Corey Levin", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 56.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 56.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 44.2, "high": 69.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Corey Levin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::DeMarcco Hellams::S", "playerName": "DeMarcco Hellams", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.4, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DeMarcco Hellams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Divine Deablo::RILB", "playerName": "Divine Deablo", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 75.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Divine Deablo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Drake London::WR1", "playerName": "Drake London", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.6, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 72, "high": 93.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2661, "expectedUsage": 0.2661, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Drake London's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Ethan Onianwa::OL", "playerName": "Ethan Onianwa", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.1, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ethan Onianwa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Gervon Dexter Sr.::DT", "playerName": "Gervon Dexter Sr.", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.8, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Gervon Dexter Sr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Harold Perkins Jr.::LB", "playerName": "Harold Perkins Jr.", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Harold Perkins Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Jack Strand::QB", "playerName": "Jack Strand", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5333, "expectedUsage": 0.5333, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jack Strand's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Jahan Dotson::WR2", "playerName": "Jahan Dotson", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2661, "expectedUsage": 0.2661, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jahan Dotson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Jake Bailey::P", "playerName": "Jake Bailey", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.6, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Raheem Morris", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Kevin Stefanski transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jake Bailey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Jake Matthews::LT", "playerName": "Jake Matthews", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 87.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jake Matthews's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Jared Ivey::EDGE", "playerName": "Jared Ivey", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.9, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jared Ivey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Jawaan Taylor::RT", "playerName": "Jawaan Taylor", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jawaan Taylor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Jessie Bates III::SS", "playerName": "Jessie Bates III", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jessie Bates III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Josh Woods::LB", "playerName": "Josh Woods", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Woods's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Kendal Daniels::MLB", "playerName": "Kendal Daniels", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.5, "high": 76.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kendal Daniels's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Kyle Hinton::OL", "playerName": "Kyle Hinton", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 56.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 56.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 44.1, "high": 69.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kyle Hinton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Kyle Pitts Sr.::TE", "playerName": "Kyle Pitts Sr.", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1243, "expectedUsage": 0.1243, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kyle Pitts Sr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::LaCale London::DT1", "playerName": "LaCale London", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "LaCale London's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Liam McCullough::LS", "playerName": "Liam McCullough", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.3, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Raheem Morris", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Kevin Stefanski transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Liam McCullough's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Maason Smith::DT", "playerName": "Maason Smith", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.3, "high": 69.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Maason Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Malcolm DeWalt IV::CB", "playerName": "Malcolm DeWalt IV", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malcolm DeWalt IV's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Matthew Bergeron::LG", "playerName": "Matthew Bergeron", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 84.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Matthew Bergeron's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Michael Jerrell::OL", "playerName": "Michael Jerrell", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Michael Jerrell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Michael Penix Jr.::QB", "playerName": "Michael Penix Jr.", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.3, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5333, "expectedUsage": 0.5333, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Michael Penix Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Mike Ford::CB", "playerName": "Mike Ford", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mike Ford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Mike Hughes::CB2", "playerName": "Mike Hughes", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mike Hughes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Nick Folk::K", "playerName": "Nick Folk", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Raheem Morris", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Kevin Stefanski transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Nick Folk's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Nick Muse::TE", "playerName": "Nick Muse", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 49.4, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1243, "expectedUsage": 0.1243, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Nick Muse's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Olamide Zaccheaus::WR3", "playerName": "Olamide Zaccheaus", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2661, "expectedUsage": 0.2661, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Olamide Zaccheaus's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Robert Longerbeam::CB", "playerName": "Robert Longerbeam", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Robert Longerbeam's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Ryan Neuzil::C", "playerName": "Ryan Neuzil", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ryan Neuzil's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Samson Ebukam::ROLB", "playerName": "Samson Ebukam", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.6, "high": 75.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Samson Ebukam's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Sydney Brown::S", "playerName": "Sydney Brown", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sydney Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Tua Tagovailoa::QB", "playerName": "Tua Tagovailoa", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 65.9, "high": 88.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5333, "expectedUsage": 0.5333, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Tua Tagovailoa's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Xavier Watts::FS", "playerName": "Xavier Watts", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.4, "high": 89.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Xavier Watts's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Yasir Abdullah::RDE", "playerName": "Yasir Abdullah", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Yasir Abdullah's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Za'Darius Smith::LOLB", "playerName": "Za'Darius Smith", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 78.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Za'Darius Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Zach Harrison::EDGE", "playerName": "Zach Harrison", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "currentCoordinator": "Jeff Ulbrich", "priorLead": "Jeff Ulbrich", "transition": "retained-coordinator-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Ulbrich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zach Harrison's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Atlanta Falcons::Zachariah Branch::WR4", "playerName": "Zachariah Branch", "teamName": "Atlanta Falcons", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Tommy Rees", "currentCoordinator": "Tommy Rees", "priorLead": "Zac Robinson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2661, "expectedUsage": 0.2661, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.002, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Tommy Rees transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Zachariah Branch's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Aeneas Peebles::DT", "playerName": "Aeneas Peebles", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Aeneas Peebles's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Andrew Vorhees::C", "playerName": "Andrew Vorhees", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Andrew Vorhees's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Broderick Washington::DT", "playerName": "Broderick Washington", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 76 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Broderick Washington's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Calais Campbell::DT", "playerName": "Calais Campbell", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Calais Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Cam Jurgens::OL", "playerName": "Cam Jurgens", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.3, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Cam Jurgens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Carson Vinson::OL", "playerName": "Carson Vinson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Carson Vinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Chandler Rivers::CB", "playerName": "Chandler Rivers", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chandler Rivers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Chidobe Awuzie::CB", "playerName": "Chidobe Awuzie", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chidobe Awuzie's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Chris Moore::WR", "playerName": "Chris Moore", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.5, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2271, "expectedUsage": 0.2271, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Chris Moore's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Derrick Henry::RB", "playerName": "Derrick Henry", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 83.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.5, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 72.1, "high": 94.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5005, "expectedUsage": 0.5005, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0019, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Derrick Henry's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Devontez Walker::WR4", "playerName": "Devontez Walker", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 88.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2271, "expectedUsage": 0.2271, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Devontez Walker's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Elijah Sarratt::WR3", "playerName": "Elijah Sarratt", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 89.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2271, "expectedUsage": 0.2271, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Elijah Sarratt's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Emery Jones Jr.::OL", "playerName": "Emery Jones Jr.", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Emery Jones Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Ethan Burke::EDGE", "playerName": "Ethan Burke", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ethan Burke's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Jay Higgins::ROLB", "playerName": "Jay Higgins", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jay Higgins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Jaylinn Hawkins::SS", "playerName": "Jaylinn Hawkins", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylinn Hawkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Joe Fagnano::QB", "playerName": "Joe Fagnano", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4543, "expectedUsage": 0.4543, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Joe Fagnano's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::John Jenkins::DT", "playerName": "John Jenkins", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "John Jenkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::John Simpson::LG", "playerName": "John Simpson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "John Simpson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Josh Cuevas::TE", "playerName": "Josh Cuevas", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1324, "expectedUsage": 0.1324, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Josh Cuevas's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Justice Hill::RB", "playerName": "Justice Hill", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 89.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5005, "expectedUsage": 0.5005, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0019, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Justice Hill's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::K'Von Wallace::S", "playerName": "K'Von Wallace", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 88.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "K'Von Wallace's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Keondre Jackson::S", "playerName": "Keondre Jackson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.5, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keondre Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Keyon Martin::CB", "playerName": "Keyon Martin", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keyon Martin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Kyle Hamilton::NB", "playerName": "Kyle Hamilton", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 85.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.5, "high": 96.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kyle Hamilton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::LaJohntay Wester::WR", "playerName": "LaJohntay Wester", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2271, "expectedUsage": 0.2271, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "LaJohntay Wester's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Lamar Jackson::QB", "playerName": "Lamar Jackson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 89.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 89.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 80.4, "high": 98.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4543, "expectedUsage": 0.4543, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Lamar Jackson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Malaki Starks::FS", "playerName": "Malaki Starks", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.8, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malaki Starks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Mark Andrews::TE", "playerName": "Mark Andrews", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1324, "expectedUsage": 0.1324, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Mark Andrews's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Marlon Humphrey::CB2", "playerName": "Marlon Humphrey", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Marlon Humphrey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Matthew Hibner::FB", "playerName": "Matthew Hibner", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1324, "expectedUsage": 0.1324, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Matthew Hibner's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Mike Green::EDGE", "playerName": "Mike Green", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.6, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mike Green's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Nate Wiggins::CB1", "playerName": "Nate Wiggins", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nate Wiggins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Nick Moore::LS", "playerName": "Nick Moore", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.3, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jesse Minter", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "John Harbaugh", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jesse Minter transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Nick Moore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Nick Vannett::TE", "playerName": "Nick Vannett", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 88 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1324, "expectedUsage": 0.1324, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Nick Vannett's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Nnamdi Madubuike::DT2", "playerName": "Nnamdi Madubuike", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68, "high": 94.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nnamdi Madubuike's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Olaivavega Ioane::RG", "playerName": "Olaivavega Ioane", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 88.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Olaivavega Ioane's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Rasheen Ali::RB", "playerName": "Rasheen Ali", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5005, "expectedUsage": 0.5005, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 9, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0019, "reason": "9th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rasheen Ali's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Rashod Bateman::WR2", "playerName": "Rashod Bateman", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2271, "expectedUsage": 0.2271, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rashod Bateman's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Roger Rosengarten::RT", "playerName": "Roger Rosengarten", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 90.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Roger Rosengarten's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Ronnie Stanley::LT", "playerName": "Ronnie Stanley", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 85.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.2, "high": 97.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ronnie Stanley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Roquan Smith::MLB", "playerName": "Roquan Smith", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.5, "high": 91.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Roquan Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Ryan Eckley::P", "playerName": "Ryan Eckley", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jesse Minter", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "John Harbaugh", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jesse Minter transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ryan Eckley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Tavius Robinson::RDE", "playerName": "Tavius Robinson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tavius Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Teddye Buchanan::RILB", "playerName": "Teddye Buchanan", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 88.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Teddye Buchanan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Travis Jones::DT1", "playerName": "Travis Jones", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 87.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Travis Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Trenton Simpson::LOLB", "playerName": "Trenton Simpson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.2, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Trenton Simpson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Trey Hendrickson::LDE", "playerName": "Trey Hendrickson", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Trey Hendrickson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Tyler Huntley::QB", "playerName": "Tyler Huntley", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 76.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4543, "expectedUsage": 0.4543, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyler Huntley's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Tyler Loop::K", "playerName": "Tyler Loop", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jesse Minter", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "John Harbaugh", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jesse Minter transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyler Loop's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Zay Flowers::WR1", "playerName": "Zay Flowers", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.5, "high": 94.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Declan Doyle", "currentCoordinator": "Declan Doyle", "priorLead": "Todd Monken", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2271, "expectedUsage": 0.2271, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0004, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Declan Doyle transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Zay Flowers's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Baltimore Ravens::Zion Young::EDGE", "playerName": "Zion Young", "teamName": "Baltimore Ravens", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Weaver", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Weaver", "priorLead": "Zach Orr", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Anthony Weaver transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zion Young's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Alec Anderson::LG", "playerName": "Alec Anderson", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Alec Anderson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Ar'maj Reed-Adams::OL", "playerName": "Ar'maj Reed-Adams", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ar'maj Reed-Adams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Austin Corbett::OL", "playerName": "Austin Corbett", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Austin Corbett's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Bradley Chubb::RDE", "playerName": "Bradley Chubb", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.7, "high": 87.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bradley Chubb's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::C.J. Gardner-Johnson::FS", "playerName": "C.J. Gardner-Johnson", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 83.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "C.J. Gardner-Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Christian Benford::CB1", "playerName": "Christian Benford", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Benford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Cole Bishop::SS", "playerName": "Cole Bishop", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 89.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cole Bishop's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Connor McGovern::C", "playerName": "Connor McGovern", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Connor McGovern's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Dalton Kincaid::TE", "playerName": "Dalton Kincaid", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 66.5, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1161, "expectedUsage": 0.1161, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dalton Kincaid's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Damar Hamlin::S", "playerName": "Damar Hamlin", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.1, "high": 91.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Damar Hamlin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Davison Igbinosun::CB", "playerName": "Davison Igbinosun", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 83.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Davison Igbinosun's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Dawson Knox::FB", "playerName": "Dawson Knox", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1161, "expectedUsage": 0.1161, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dawson Knox's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Dee Alford::NB", "playerName": "Dee Alford", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.9, "high": 89.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dee Alford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Deone Walker::DT1", "playerName": "Deone Walker", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.6, "high": 92.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Deone Walker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::DeWayne Carter::DT", "playerName": "DeWayne Carter", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DeWayne Carter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Dion Dawkins::LT", "playerName": "Dion Dawkins", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 83.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.4, "high": 94.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dion Dawkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::DJ Moore::WR1", "playerName": "DJ Moore", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 59.2, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2591, "expectedUsage": 0.2591, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "DJ Moore's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Dorian Williams::MLB", "playerName": "Dorian Williams", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.6, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dorian Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Ed Oliver::DT2", "playerName": "Ed Oliver", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.2, "high": 88.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ed Oliver's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Greg Dortch::WR", "playerName": "Greg Dortch", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2591, "expectedUsage": 0.2591, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Greg Dortch's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Greg Gaines::DT", "playerName": "Greg Gaines", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.8, "high": 72 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Greg Gaines's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Greg Rousseau::LDE", "playerName": "Greg Rousseau", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 86.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.7, "high": 95.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Greg Rousseau's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Jackson Hawes::TE", "playerName": "Jackson Hawes", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1161, "expectedUsage": 0.1161, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jackson Hawes's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Jalon Kilgore::S", "playerName": "Jalon Kilgore", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jalon Kilgore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::James Cook III::RB", "playerName": "James Cook III", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 81.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.1, "contextDelta": -0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 71.1, "high": 91.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4866, "expectedUsage": 0.4866, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9949, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "James Cook III's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Javon Solomon::EDGE", "playerName": "Javon Solomon", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Javon Solomon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Joe Andreessen::ROLB", "playerName": "Joe Andreessen", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Joe Andreessen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Josh Allen::QB", "playerName": "Josh Allen", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 89.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 88.8, "contextDelta": -0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 81.3, "high": 96.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.475, "expectedUsage": 0.475, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Josh Allen's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Josh Palmer::WR", "playerName": "Josh Palmer", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2591, "expectedUsage": 0.2591, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Josh Palmer's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Jude Bowry::OL", "playerName": "Jude Bowry", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jude Bowry's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Kaleb Elarms-Orr::LOLB", "playerName": "Kaleb Elarms-Orr", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kaleb Elarms-Orr's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Keleki Latu::TE", "playerName": "Keleki Latu", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 52.7, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1161, "expectedUsage": 0.1161, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Keleki Latu's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Keon Coleman::WR3", "playerName": "Keon Coleman", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2591, "expectedUsage": 0.2591, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Keon Coleman's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Khalil Shakir::WR2", "playerName": "Khalil Shakir", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 76.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2591, "expectedUsage": 0.2591, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Khalil Shakir's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Kyle Allen::QB", "playerName": "Kyle Allen", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 76.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.475, "expectedUsage": 0.475, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kyle Allen's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Landon Jackson::EDGE", "playerName": "Landon Jackson", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 73.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Landon Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Lloyd Cushenberry III::OL", "playerName": "Lloyd Cushenberry III", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.1, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Lloyd Cushenberry III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Maxwell Hairston::CB2", "playerName": "Maxwell Hairston", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Maxwell Hairston's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Michael Danna::EDGE", "playerName": "Michael Danna", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.5, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Michael Danna's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Michael Hoecht::EDGE", "playerName": "Michael Hoecht", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Michael Hoecht's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::O'Cyrus Torrence::RG", "playerName": "O'Cyrus Torrence", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.1, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "O'Cyrus Torrence's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Ray Davis::RB", "playerName": "Ray Davis", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": -0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4866, "expectedUsage": 0.4866, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9949, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ray Davis's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Reid Ferguson::LS", "playerName": "Reid Ferguson", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.4, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean McDermott", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Reid Ferguson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Sam Franklin Jr.::S", "playerName": "Sam Franklin Jr.", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.5, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sam Franklin Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Skyler Bell::WR4", "playerName": "Skyler Bell", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 59.5, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2591, "expectedUsage": 0.2591, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9957, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Skyler Bell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Spencer Brown::RT", "playerName": "Spencer Brown", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72, "high": 93 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Spencer Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::T.J. Sanders::DT", "playerName": "T.J. Sanders", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "T.J. Sanders's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Terrel Bernard::RILB", "playerName": "Terrel Bernard", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Terrel Bernard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::TJ Parker::EDGE", "playerName": "TJ Parker", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jim Leonhard", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Leonhard", "priorLead": "Bobby Babich", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jim Leonhard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "TJ Parker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Tommy Doman Jr.::P", "playerName": "Tommy Doman Jr.", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.4, "high": 88.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean McDermott", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tommy Doman Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Ty Johnson::RB", "playerName": "Ty Johnson", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": -0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 88.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4866, "expectedUsage": 0.4866, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 32, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9949, "reason": "32nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Ty Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Tylan Grable::OL", "playerName": "Tylan Grable", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": "Pete Carmichael Jr.", "priorLead": "Joe Brady", "transition": "same-caller-new-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tylan Grable's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Buffalo Bills::Tyler Bass::K", "playerName": "Tyler Bass", "teamName": "Buffalo Bills", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Joe Brady", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean McDermott", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Joe Brady transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyler Bass's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Aaron Hall::DT", "playerName": "Aaron Hall", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 78.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Aaron Hall's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::AJ Dillon::RB", "playerName": "AJ Dillon", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.9, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4949, "expectedUsage": 0.4949, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9971, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "AJ Dillon's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Akayleb Evans::CB2", "playerName": "Akayleb Evans", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Akayleb Evans's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Albert Reese::OL", "playerName": "Albert Reese", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Albert Reese's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Bobby Brown III::DT", "playerName": "Bobby Brown III", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bobby Brown III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Bobby Okereke::RILB", "playerName": "Bobby Okereke", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bobby Okereke's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Bryce Young::QB", "playerName": "Bryce Young", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 65.6, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5277, "expectedUsage": 0.5277, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Bryce Young's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Brycen Tremayne::WR", "playerName": "Brycen Tremayne", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2961, "expectedUsage": 0.2961, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Brycen Tremayne's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Cam Jackson::DT", "playerName": "Cam Jackson", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 62.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 72.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cam Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Chau Smith-Wade::NB", "playerName": "Chau Smith-Wade", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 78.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chau Smith-Wade's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Chuba Hubbard::RB", "playerName": "Chuba Hubbard", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 65.7, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4949, "expectedUsage": 0.4949, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9971, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chuba Hubbard's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Corey Bullock::OL", "playerName": "Corey Bullock", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Corey Bullock's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Damien Lewis::LG", "playerName": "Damien Lewis", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Damien Lewis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Darren Waller::FB", "playerName": "Darren Waller", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 65.4, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1014, "expectedUsage": 0.1014, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Darren Waller's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::David Moore::WR3", "playerName": "David Moore", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.8, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2961, "expectedUsage": 0.2961, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "David Moore's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Derrick Brown::DT2", "playerName": "Derrick Brown", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 84.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77.4, "high": 91.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Derrick Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Devin Lloyd::MLB", "playerName": "Devin Lloyd", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.7, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Devin Lloyd's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Feleipe Franks::TE", "playerName": "Feleipe Franks", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.4, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1014, "expectedUsage": 0.1014, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Feleipe Franks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Haynes King::QB", "playerName": "Haynes King", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.1, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5277, "expectedUsage": 0.5277, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Haynes King's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Isaiah Simmons::S", "playerName": "Isaiah Simmons", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Isaiah Simmons's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::J.J. Jansen::LS", "playerName": "J.J. Jansen", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dave Canales", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "J.J. Jansen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Ja'Tavion Sanders::TE", "playerName": "Ja'Tavion Sanders", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1014, "expectedUsage": 0.1014, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ja'Tavion Sanders's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Jackson Kuwatch::LOLB", "playerName": "Jackson Kuwatch", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jackson Kuwatch's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Jaelan Phillips::RDE", "playerName": "Jaelan Phillips", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.5, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaelan Phillips's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Jalen Coker::WR2", "playerName": "Jalen Coker", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 66.9, "high": 89.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2961, "expectedUsage": 0.2961, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Jalen Coker's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::John Metchie III::WR4", "playerName": "John Metchie III", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57.2, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2961, "expectedUsage": 0.2961, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "John Metchie III's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Kenny Pickett::QB", "playerName": "Kenny Pickett", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5277, "expectedUsage": 0.5277, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kenny Pickett's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Lathan Ransom::S", "playerName": "Lathan Ransom", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Lathan Ransom's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Lee Hunter::DT1", "playerName": "Lee Hunter", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 72.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Lee Hunter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Luke Fortner::C", "playerName": "Luke Fortner", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Luke Fortner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Mitchell Evans::TE", "playerName": "Mitchell Evans", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1014, "expectedUsage": 0.1014, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Mitchell Evans's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Monroe Freeling::RT", "playerName": "Monroe Freeling", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 86.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Monroe Freeling's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Nick Scott::FS", "playerName": "Nick Scott", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Scott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Patrick Jones II::LDE", "playerName": "Patrick Jones II", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Patrick Jones II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Princely Umanmielen::EDGE", "playerName": "Princely Umanmielen", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 71.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Princely Umanmielen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Rasheed Walker::LT", "playerName": "Rasheed Walker", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.9, "high": 94.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Rasheed Walker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Robert Hunt::RG", "playerName": "Robert Hunt", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Robert Hunt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Ryan Fitzgerald::K", "playerName": "Ryan Fitzgerald", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dave Canales", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ryan Fitzgerald's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Sam Hecht::OL", "playerName": "Sam Hecht", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Sam Hecht's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Sam Martin::P", "playerName": "Sam Martin", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.1, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dave Canales", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Sam Martin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Stone Forsythe::OL", "playerName": "Stone Forsythe", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.9, "high": 72.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Stone Forsythe's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::TeRah Edwards::DT", "playerName": "TeRah Edwards", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "TeRah Edwards's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Tetairoa McMillan::WR1", "playerName": "Tetairoa McMillan", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 80.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 70.7, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2961, "expectedUsage": 0.2961, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tetairoa McMillan's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Thomas Incoom::EDGE", "playerName": "Thomas Incoom", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.9, "high": 77.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Thomas Incoom's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Tommy Tremble::TE", "playerName": "Tommy Tremble", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1014, "expectedUsage": 0.1014, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 28, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "28th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tommy Tremble's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Torricelli Simpkins III::OL", "playerName": "Torricelli Simpkins III", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brad Idzik", "currentCoordinator": "Brad Idzik", "priorLead": "Dave Canales", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brad Idzik transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Torricelli Simpkins III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Tre'von Moehrig::SS", "playerName": "Tre'von Moehrig", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.1, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tre'von Moehrig's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Trevis Gipson::ROLB", "playerName": "Trevis Gipson", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 62.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 69.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Trevis Gipson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Tyrel Dodson::LB", "playerName": "Tyrel Dodson", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.1, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyrel Dodson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Will Lee III::CB1", "playerName": "Will Lee III", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Will Lee III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Carolina Panthers::Zakee Wheatley::S", "playerName": "Zakee Wheatley", "teamName": "Carolina Panthers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Ejiro Evero", "currentCoordinator": "Ejiro Evero", "priorLead": "Ejiro Evero", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zakee Wheatley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Austin Booker::EDGE", "playerName": "Austin Booker", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.8, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Austin Booker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Cairo Santos::K", "playerName": "Cairo Santos", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.9, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Cairo Santos's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Caleb Williams::QB", "playerName": "Caleb Williams", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.532, "expectedUsage": 0.532, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Caleb Williams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Cam Lewis::NB", "playerName": "Cam Lewis", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 78.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cam Lewis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Case Keenum::QB", "playerName": "Case Keenum", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.532, "expectedUsage": 0.532, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Case Keenum's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Clark Phillips III::CB", "playerName": "Clark Phillips III", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Clark Phillips III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Cole Kmet::TE", "playerName": "Cole Kmet", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 83.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.126, "expectedUsage": 0.126, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cole Kmet's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Colston Loveland::FB", "playerName": "Colston Loveland", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 81.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 71, "high": 90.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.126, "expectedUsage": 0.126, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Colston Loveland's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::D'Andre Swift::RB", "playerName": "D'Andre Swift", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 60.4, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4439, "expectedUsage": 0.4439, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "D'Andre Swift's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::D'Marco Jackson::ROLB", "playerName": "D'Marco Jackson", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.9, "high": 83.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "D'Marco Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Daniel Hardy::EDGE", "playerName": "Daniel Hardy", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 75.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Daniel Hardy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Darnell Wright::RT", "playerName": "Darnell Wright", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68, "high": 93 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Darnell Wright's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Dayo Odeyingbo::EDGE", "playerName": "Dayo Odeyingbo", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dayo Odeyingbo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Devin Bush::RDE", "playerName": "Devin Bush", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 83.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77, "high": 90.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Devin Bush's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Dillon Thieneman::SS", "playerName": "Dillon Thieneman", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 86.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77.3, "high": 95.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dillon Thieneman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Elijah Hicks::S", "playerName": "Elijah Hicks", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Hicks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Garrett Bradbury::C", "playerName": "Garrett Bradbury", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Garrett Bradbury's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Grady Jarrett::DT1", "playerName": "Grady Jarrett", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 83.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76, "high": 90.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Grady Jarrett's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jack Sanborn::RILB", "playerName": "Jack Sanborn", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Sanborn's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jahdae Walker::WR", "playerName": "Jahdae Walker", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2919, "expectedUsage": 0.2919, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jahdae Walker's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::James Lynch::DT", "playerName": "James Lynch", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 75 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "James Lynch's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jamree Kromah::EDGE", "playerName": "Jamree Kromah", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 77.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jamree Kromah's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jayden Loving::DT", "playerName": "Jayden Loving", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jayden Loving's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jaylon Johnson::CB1", "playerName": "Jaylon Johnson", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylon Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Joe Thuney::LG", "playerName": "Joe Thuney", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 87.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 87.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77.5, "high": 98.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Joe Thuney's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jonah Jackson::RG", "playerName": "Jonah Jackson", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 87.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jonah Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jordan McFadden::OL", "playerName": "Jordan McFadden", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jordan McFadden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Jordan van den Berg::DT", "playerName": "Jordan van den Berg", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan van den Berg's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Josh Blackwell::CB", "playerName": "Josh Blackwell", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.6, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Blackwell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Kalif Raymond::WR3", "playerName": "Kalif Raymond", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 86.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2919, "expectedUsage": 0.2919, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kalif Raymond's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Kentavius Street::DT2", "playerName": "Kentavius Street", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kentavius Street's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Keyshaun Elliott::LOLB", "playerName": "Keyshaun Elliott", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keyshaun Elliott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Kyle Monangai::RB", "playerName": "Kyle Monangai", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4439, "expectedUsage": 0.4439, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Kyle Monangai's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Logan Jones::LT", "playerName": "Logan Jones", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.4, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Logan Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Luke Newman::OL", "playerName": "Luke Newman", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.8, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Luke Newman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Luther Burden III::WR2", "playerName": "Luther Burden III", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2919, "expectedUsage": 0.2919, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Luther Burden III's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Malik Muhammad::CB", "playerName": "Malik Muhammad", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.5, "high": 84.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malik Muhammad's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Montez Sweat::LDE", "playerName": "Montez Sweat", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.3, "high": 88.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Montez Sweat's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Neville Gallimore::DT", "playerName": "Neville Gallimore", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 75.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Neville Gallimore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Ozzy Trapilo::OL", "playerName": "Ozzy Trapilo", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ozzy Trapilo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Rome Odunze::WR1", "playerName": "Rome Odunze", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 65.1, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2919, "expectedUsage": 0.2919, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rome Odunze's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Roschon Johnson::RB", "playerName": "Roschon Johnson", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4439, "expectedUsage": 0.4439, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Roschon Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Sam Roush::TE", "playerName": "Sam Roush", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.126, "expectedUsage": 0.126, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Sam Roush's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Scott Daly::LS", "playerName": "Scott Daly", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.1, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Scott Daly's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Skyler Thomas::S", "playerName": "Skyler Thomas", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Skyler Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::T.J. Edwards::MLB", "playerName": "T.J. Edwards", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "T.J. Edwards's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Theo Benedet::OL", "playerName": "Theo Benedet", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Theo Benedet's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Tory Taylor::P", "playerName": "Tory Taylor", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tory Taylor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Tyrique Stevenson::CB2", "playerName": "Tyrique Stevenson", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.4, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyrique Stevenson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Tyson Bagent::QB", "playerName": "Tyson Bagent", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.532, "expectedUsage": 0.532, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyson Bagent's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Xavier Woods::FS", "playerName": "Xavier Woods", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.5, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennis Allen", "currentCoordinator": "Dennis Allen", "priorLead": "Dennis Allen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Xavier Woods's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Chicago Bears::Zavion Thomas::WR4", "playerName": "Zavion Thomas", "teamName": "Chicago Bears", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Ben Johnson", "currentCoordinator": "Press Taylor", "priorLead": "Ben Johnson", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2919, "expectedUsage": 0.2919, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9965, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Ben Johnson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Zavion Thomas's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Amarius Mims::RT", "playerName": "Amarius Mims", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.7, "high": 87.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Amarius Mims's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::B.J. Hill::DT", "playerName": "B.J. Hill", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 83.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.5, "high": 91.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "B.J. Hill's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Barrett Carter::MLB", "playerName": "Barrett Carter", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.3, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Barrett Carter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Boye Mafe::LDE", "playerName": "Boye Mafe", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.4, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Boye Mafe's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Bryan Cook::FS", "playerName": "Bryan Cook", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 72.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bryan Cook's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Cashius Howell::EDGE", "playerName": "Cashius Howell", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cashius Howell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Cedric Johnson::EDGE", "playerName": "Cedric Johnson", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.3, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cedric Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Chase Brown::RB", "playerName": "Chase Brown", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4358, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0009, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Chase Brown's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Colbie Young::WR4", "playerName": "Colbie Young", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3595, "expectedUsage": 0.3595, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Colbie Young's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Connor Lew::OL", "playerName": "Connor Lew", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.1, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Connor Lew's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Dalton Risner::RG", "playerName": "Dalton Risner", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dalton Risner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Daxton Hill::NB", "playerName": "Daxton Hill", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.2, "high": 87.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Daxton Hill's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Demetrius Knight Jr.::LOLB", "playerName": "Demetrius Knight Jr.", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.7, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Demetrius Knight Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Dexter Lawrence II::DT1", "playerName": "Dexter Lawrence II", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.4, "high": 88.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dexter Lawrence II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::DJ Ivey::CB1", "playerName": "DJ Ivey", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.5, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DJ Ivey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::DJ Turner II::CB2", "playerName": "DJ Turner II", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.4, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DJ Turner II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Dohnte Meyers::WR3", "playerName": "Dohnte Meyers", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3595, "expectedUsage": 0.3595, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Dohnte Meyers's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Drew Sample::TE", "playerName": "Drew Sample", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1263, "expectedUsage": 0.1263, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Drew Sample's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Dylan Fairchild::LG", "playerName": "Dylan Fairchild", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dylan Fairchild's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Erick All::TE", "playerName": "Erick All", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.4, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1263, "expectedUsage": 0.1263, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Erick All's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Evan McPherson::K", "playerName": "Evan McPherson", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.7, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Evan McPherson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Ja'Marr Chase::WR1", "playerName": "Ja'Marr Chase", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 85.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.4, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 77.8, "high": 93 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3595, "expectedUsage": 0.3595, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ja'Marr Chase's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Jack Endries::TE", "playerName": "Jack Endries", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1263, "expectedUsage": 0.1263, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jack Endries's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Jacob Bayer::OL", "playerName": "Jacob Bayer", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jacob Bayer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Jalen Rivers::OL", "playerName": "Jalen Rivers", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jalen Rivers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Javon Foster::OL", "playerName": "Javon Foster", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.6, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Javon Foster's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Joe Burrow::QB", "playerName": "Joe Burrow", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 84.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.7, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 76.6, "high": 92.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.6268, "expectedUsage": 0.6268, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Joe Burrow's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Joe Flacco::QB", "playerName": "Joe Flacco", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 78.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.6268, "expectedUsage": 0.6268, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Joe Flacco's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Joe Giles-Harris::LB", "playerName": "Joe Giles-Harris", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.8, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Joe Giles-Harris's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Jonathan Allen::DT2", "playerName": "Jonathan Allen", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 85.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 78.8, "high": 92.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonathan Allen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Jordan Battle::SS", "playerName": "Jordan Battle", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.5, "high": 89.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Battle's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Josh Newton::CB", "playerName": "Josh Newton", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.6, "high": 76 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Newton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Kris Jenkins::DT", "playerName": "Kris Jenkins", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 72.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kris Jenkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Kyle Dugger::S", "playerName": "Kyle Dugger", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kyle Dugger's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Landon Robinson::DT", "playerName": "Landon Robinson", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Landon Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Mike Gesicki::FB", "playerName": "Mike Gesicki", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1263, "expectedUsage": 0.1263, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Mike Gesicki's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Mitchell Tinsley::WR", "playerName": "Mitchell Tinsley", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 60.3, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3595, "expectedUsage": 0.3595, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Mitchell Tinsley's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Myles Hinton::OL", "playerName": "Myles Hinton", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Myles Hinton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Myles Murphy::RDE", "playerName": "Myles Murphy", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Myles Murphy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Oren Burks::ROLB", "playerName": "Oren Burks", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 76.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Oren Burks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Orlando Brown Jr.::LT", "playerName": "Orlando Brown Jr.", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 85.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.7, "high": 94.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Orlando Brown Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::PJ Jules::S", "playerName": "PJ Jules", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "PJ Jules's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Ryan Rehkow::P", "playerName": "Ryan Rehkow", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.1, "high": 87.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ryan Rehkow's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Samaje Perine::RB", "playerName": "Samaje Perine", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.5, "high": 84.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4358, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0009, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Samaje Perine's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Shemar Stewart::EDGE", "playerName": "Shemar Stewart", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Shemar Stewart's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Swayze Bozeman::RILB", "playerName": "Swayze Bozeman", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Swayze Bozeman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tacario Davis::CB", "playerName": "Tacario Davis", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.9, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tacario Davis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tahj Brooks::RB", "playerName": "Tahj Brooks", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.8, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4358, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0009, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tahj Brooks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tanner Hudson::TE", "playerName": "Tanner Hudson", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1263, "expectedUsage": 0.1263, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Tanner Hudson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Ted Karras::C", "playerName": "Ted Karras", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ted Karras's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tedarrell Slaton::DT", "playerName": "Tedarrell Slaton", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Al Golden", "currentCoordinator": "Al Golden", "priorLead": "Al Golden", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tedarrell Slaton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::Tee Higgins::WR2", "playerName": "Tee Higgins", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 83.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.7, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 76.1, "high": 91.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": "Dan Pitcher", "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3595, "expectedUsage": 0.3595, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 13, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "13th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tee Higgins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cincinnati Bengals::William Wagner::LS", "playerName": "William Wagner", "teamName": "Cincinnati Bengals", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Zac Taylor", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Zac Taylor", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "William Wagner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Adin Huntington::DT", "playerName": "Adin Huntington", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 73.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Adin Huntington's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Andre Szmyt::K", "playerName": "Andre Szmyt", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Andre Szmyt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Austin Barber::OL", "playerName": "Austin Barber", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Austin Barber's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Blake Whiteheart::TE", "playerName": "Blake Whiteheart", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextDelta": -1.8, "planningRange": { "low": 51.7, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9715, "baselineUsage": 0.1726, "expectedUsage": 0.1494, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 2.8%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Blake Whiteheart's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Carsen Ryan::TE", "playerName": "Carsen Ryan", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": -1.8, "planningRange": { "low": 50.9, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9715, "baselineUsage": 0.1726, "expectedUsage": 0.1494, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 2.8%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Carsen Ryan's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Carson Schwesinger::LOLB", "playerName": "Carson Schwesinger", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.1, "high": 90.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Carson Schwesinger's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Corey Bojorquez::P", "playerName": "Corey Bojorquez", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.6, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Corey Bojorquez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Daniel Thomas::S", "playerName": "Daniel Thomas", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 87.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Daniel Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Dawand Jones::OL", "playerName": "Dawand Jones", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dawand Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Denzel Boston::WR3", "playerName": "Denzel Boston", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 91.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.2498, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Denzel Boston's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Denzel Ward::CB1", "playerName": "Denzel Ward", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Denzel Ward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Derek Barnett::EDGE", "playerName": "Derek Barnett", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Derek Barnett's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Deshaun Watson::QB", "playerName": "Deshaun Watson", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.8, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 68.1, "high": 87.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.57, "expectedUsage": 0.5323, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Deshaun Watson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Donovan McMillon::S", "playerName": "Donovan McMillon", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Donovan McMillon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Easton Mascarenas-Arnold::LDE", "playerName": "Easton Mascarenas-Arnold", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Easton Mascarenas-Arnold's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Elgton Jenkins::C", "playerName": "Elgton Jenkins", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.2, "high": 94.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Elgton Jenkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Emmanuel McNeil-Warren::S", "playerName": "Emmanuel McNeil-Warren", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Emmanuel McNeil-Warren's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Grant Delpit::SS", "playerName": "Grant Delpit", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.4, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Grant Delpit's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Harold Fannin Jr.::TE", "playerName": "Harold Fannin Jr.", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": -2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9715, "baselineUsage": 0.1726, "expectedUsage": 0.1494, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 2.8%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Harold Fannin Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Isaiah Bond::WR4", "playerName": "Isaiah Bond", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.2498, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Isaiah Bond's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Isaiah McGuire::EDGE", "playerName": "Isaiah McGuire", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.9, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Isaiah McGuire's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Jaleel McLaughlin::RB", "playerName": "Jaleel McLaughlin", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4831, "expectedUsage": 0.4761, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jaleel McLaughlin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Jared Verse::RDE", "playerName": "Jared Verse", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.6, "high": 93.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jared Verse's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Jerry Jeudy::WR1", "playerName": "Jerry Jeudy", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.2498, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jerry Jeudy's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Justin Jefferson::ROLB", "playerName": "Justin Jefferson", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 88 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Justin Jefferson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::KC Concepcion::WR2", "playerName": "KC Concepcion", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 64.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.7, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.2498, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "KC Concepcion's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Luke Wypler::OL", "playerName": "Luke Wypler", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Luke Wypler's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Malachi Corley::WR", "playerName": "Malachi Corley", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.1, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.2498, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Malachi Corley's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Maliek Collins::DT2", "playerName": "Maliek Collins", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.7, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Maliek Collins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Mason Graham::DT1", "playerName": "Mason Graham", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.6, "high": 90.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mason Graham's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Mekhi Blackmon::CB", "playerName": "Mekhi Blackmon", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mekhi Blackmon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Michael Burton::FB", "playerName": "Michael Burton", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 90.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Michael Burton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Mike Hall Jr.::DT", "playerName": "Mike Hall Jr.", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mike Hall Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Myles Harden::NB", "playerName": "Myles Harden", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.5, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Myles Harden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Noah Igbinoghene::CB", "playerName": "Noah Igbinoghene", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Noah Igbinoghene's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Parker Brailsford::OL", "playerName": "Parker Brailsford", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Parker Brailsford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Quincy Williams::MLB", "playerName": "Quincy Williams", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Quincy Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Quinshon Judkins::RB", "playerName": "Quinshon Judkins", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57.2, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4831, "expectedUsage": 0.4761, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Quinshon Judkins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Raheim Sanders::RB", "playerName": "Raheim Sanders", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4831, "expectedUsage": 0.4761, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Raheim Sanders's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Rex Sunahara::LS", "playerName": "Rex Sunahara", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.7, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rex Sunahara's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Ronnie Hickman::FS", "playerName": "Ronnie Hickman", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69, "high": 90.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ronnie Hickman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Sam Williams::RILB", "playerName": "Sam Williams", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sam Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Shedeur Sanders::QB", "playerName": "Shedeur Sanders", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 60.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 60.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 50.7, "high": 71.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.57, "expectedUsage": 0.5323, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Shedeur Sanders's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Spencer Fano::LT", "playerName": "Spencer Fano", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 88.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Spencer Fano's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Taylen Green::QB", "playerName": "Taylen Green", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.5, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.57, "expectedUsage": 0.5323, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Taylen Green's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Teven Jenkins::RG", "playerName": "Teven Jenkins", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Teven Jenkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Toriano Pride Jr.::CB", "playerName": "Toriano Pride Jr.", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Toriano Pride Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Tylan Wallace::WR", "playerName": "Tylan Wallace", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.2498, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tylan Wallace's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Tyson Campbell::CB2", "playerName": "Tyson Campbell", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyson Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Tytus Howard::RT", "playerName": "Tytus Howard", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tytus Howard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Winston Reid::LB", "playerName": "Winston Reid", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 85.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Mike Rutenberg", "currentCoordinator": "Mike Rutenberg", "priorLead": "Jim Schwartz", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike Rutenberg transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Winston Reid's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Zak Zinter::OL", "playerName": "Zak Zinter", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 78.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Zak Zinter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Cleveland Browns::Zion Johnson::LG", "playerName": "Zion Johnson", "teamName": "Cleveland Browns", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Todd Monken", "currentCoordinator": "Travis Switzer", "priorLead": "Kevin Stefanski", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Monken transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Zion Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Ajani Cornelius::OL", "playerName": "Ajani Cornelius", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.5, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ajani Cornelius's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Alijah Clark::CB", "playerName": "Alijah Clark", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.7, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alijah Clark's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Ameer Speed::CB", "playerName": "Ameer Speed", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ameer Speed's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Brandon Aubrey::K", "playerName": "Brandon Aubrey", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.3, "high": 86.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Brandon Aubrey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Brevyn Spann-Ford::TE", "playerName": "Brevyn Spann-Ford", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1267, "expectedUsage": 0.1267, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Brevyn Spann-Ford's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Broderick Jones::OL", "playerName": "Broderick Jones", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Broderick Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Bryan Anger::P", "playerName": "Bryan Anger", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.8, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Bryan Anger's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Caelen Carson::CB", "playerName": "Caelen Carson", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Caelen Carson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Caleb Downs::NB", "playerName": "Caleb Downs", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 90.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Caleb Downs's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Camden Brown::WR", "playerName": "Camden Brown", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3554, "expectedUsage": 0.3554, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Camden Brown's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::CeeDee Lamb::WR1", "playerName": "CeeDee Lamb", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 81, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 73.6, "high": 88.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3554, "expectedUsage": 0.3554, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "CeeDee Lamb's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Cobie Durant::CB1", "playerName": "Cobie Durant", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cobie Durant's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Cooper Beebe::C", "playerName": "Cooper Beebe", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Cooper Beebe's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Dak Prescott::QB", "playerName": "Dak Prescott", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 87.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 87.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 81.3, "high": 93.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.573, "expectedUsage": 0.573, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Dak Prescott's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::DaRon Bland::CB2", "playerName": "DaRon Bland", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.6, "high": 84.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DaRon Bland's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Dee Winters::RILB", "playerName": "Dee Winters", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dee Winters's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::DeMarvion Overshown::MLB", "playerName": "DeMarvion Overshown", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.6, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DeMarvion Overshown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Donovan Ezeiruaku::LDE", "playerName": "Donovan Ezeiruaku", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.1, "high": 90.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Donovan Ezeiruaku's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Drew Shelton::OL", "playerName": "Drew Shelton", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Drew Shelton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Elijah Garcia::DT", "playerName": "Elijah Garcia", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 86.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Garcia's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::George Pickens::WR2", "playerName": "George Pickens", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 80.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 73.2, "high": 88.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3554, "expectedUsage": 0.3554, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "George Pickens's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Hunter Luepke::FB", "playerName": "Hunter Luepke", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 88.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Hunter Luepke's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Jaishawn Barham::LOLB", "playerName": "Jaishawn Barham", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaishawn Barham's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Jake Ferguson::TE", "playerName": "Jake Ferguson", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1267, "expectedUsage": 0.1267, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jake Ferguson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::James Houston::EDGE", "playerName": "James Houston", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "James Houston's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Javonte Williams::RB", "playerName": "Javonte Williams", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.5, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.427, "expectedUsage": 0.427, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Javonte Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Joey Porter Jr.::CB", "playerName": "Joey Porter Jr.", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.6, "high": 93.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Joey Porter Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Jonathan Mingo::WR", "playerName": "Jonathan Mingo", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3554, "expectedUsage": 0.3554, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jonathan Mingo's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Justin Barron::LB", "playerName": "Justin Barron", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Justin Barron's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::KaVontae Turpin::WR4", "playerName": "KaVontae Turpin", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3554, "expectedUsage": 0.3554, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "KaVontae Turpin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Kenny Clark::DT2", "playerName": "Kenny Clark", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.6, "high": 88.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kenny Clark's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::LT Overton::DT", "playerName": "LT Overton", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "LT Overton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Luke Schoonmaker::TE", "playerName": "Luke Schoonmaker", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1267, "expectedUsage": 0.1267, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Luke Schoonmaker's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Malachi Lawrence::EDGE", "playerName": "Malachi Lawrence", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.2, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malachi Lawrence's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Malik Hooker::FS", "playerName": "Malik Hooker", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Doubtful", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Doubtful in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Doubtful in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malik Hooker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Markquese Bell::SS", "playerName": "Markquese Bell", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.6, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Markquese Bell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Nick Leverett::OL", "playerName": "Nick Leverett", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.9, "high": 76.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Nick Leverett's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Otito Ogbonnia::DT", "playerName": "Otito Ogbonnia", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Otito Ogbonnia's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Quinnen Williams::DT1", "playerName": "Quinnen Williams", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 89.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 89.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 80.8, "high": 97.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Quinnen Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Rashan Gary::RDE", "playerName": "Rashan Gary", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.2, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rashan Gary's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Ryan Flournoy::WR3", "playerName": "Ryan Flournoy", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 76.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3554, "expectedUsage": 0.3554, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ryan Flournoy's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Sam Howell::QB", "playerName": "Sam Howell", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 65, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.573, "expectedUsage": 0.573, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 12, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0015, "reason": "12th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Sam Howell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Shavon Revel Jr.::CB", "playerName": "Shavon Revel Jr.", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.1, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Shavon Revel Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Shemar James::ROLB", "playerName": "Shemar James", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.9, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Shemar James's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::T.J. Bass::LG", "playerName": "T.J. Bass", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "T.J. Bass's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Terence Steele::RT", "playerName": "Terence Steele", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.4, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Terence Steele's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Trent Sieg::LS", "playerName": "Trent Sieg", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Trent Sieg's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Tyler Booker::RG", "playerName": "Tyler Booker", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 84.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tyler Booker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Tyler Goodson::RB", "playerName": "Tyler Goodson", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.427, "expectedUsage": 0.427, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tyler Goodson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Tyler Guyton::LT", "playerName": "Tyler Guyton", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "currentCoordinator": "Klayton Adams", "priorLead": "Brian Schottenheimer", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tyler Guyton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Tyrus Wheat::EDGE", "playerName": "Tyrus Wheat", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyrus Wheat's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Dallas Cowboys::Von Miller::EDGE", "playerName": "Von Miller", "teamName": "Dallas Cowboys", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Christian Parker", "currentCoordinator": "Christian Parker", "priorLead": "Matt Eberflus", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Christian Parker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Von Miller's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Adam Prentice::FB", "playerName": "Adam Prentice", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.8, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Adam Prentice's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Adam Trautman::FB", "playerName": "Adam Trautman", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1066, "expectedUsage": 0.1066, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Adam Trautman's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Alex Forsyth::OL", "playerName": "Alex Forsyth", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 75.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Alex Forsyth's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Alex Palczewski::OL", "playerName": "Alex Palczewski", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Alex Palczewski's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Alex Singleton::MLB", "playerName": "Alex Singleton", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.6, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alex Singleton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Ben Powers::LG", "playerName": "Ben Powers", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ben Powers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Bo Nix::QB", "playerName": "Bo Nix", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.7, "high": 83.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5734, "expectedUsage": 0.5734, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Bo Nix's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Brandon Jones::FS", "playerName": "Brandon Jones", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.1, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Brandon Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Courtland Sutton::WR2", "playerName": "Courtland Sutton", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3283, "expectedUsage": 0.3283, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Courtland Sutton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::D.J. Jones::DT", "playerName": "D.J. Jones", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 63.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 70.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "D.J. Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Dallen Bentley::TE", "playerName": "Dallen Bentley", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1066, "expectedUsage": 0.1066, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dallen Bentley's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Devon Key::S", "playerName": "Devon Key", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Devon Key's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Dondrea Tillman::EDGE", "playerName": "Dondrea Tillman", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 76.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dondrea Tillman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Evan Engram::TE", "playerName": "Evan Engram", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1066, "expectedUsage": 0.1066, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Evan Engram's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Eyioma Uwazurike::DT", "playerName": "Eyioma Uwazurike", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 61.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 69 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Eyioma Uwazurike's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Garett Bolles::LT", "playerName": "Garett Bolles", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.3, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Garett Bolles's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::J.K. Dobbins::RB", "playerName": "J.K. Dobbins", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 65.7, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4238, "expectedUsage": 0.4238, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.999, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "J.K. Dobbins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Ja'Quan McMillian::NB", "playerName": "Ja'Quan McMillian", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ja'Quan McMillian's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Jahdae Barron::CB", "playerName": "Jahdae Barron", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 78.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jahdae Barron's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Jarrett Stidham::QB", "playerName": "Jarrett Stidham", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 76.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5734, "expectedUsage": 0.5734, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jarrett Stidham's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Jaylen Waddle::WR1", "playerName": "Jaylen Waddle", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.1, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3283, "expectedUsage": 0.3283, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jaylen Waddle's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Jeremy Crawshaw::P", "playerName": "Jeremy Crawshaw", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Sean Payton", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jeremy Crawshaw's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::JL Skinner::S", "playerName": "JL Skinner", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.5, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "JL Skinner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Jonah Elliss::LOLB", "playerName": "Jonah Elliss", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.5, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonah Elliss's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Jordan Jackson::DT", "playerName": "Jordan Jackson", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.5, "high": 74.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Jordan Turner::ROLB", "playerName": "Jordan Turner", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Turner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Justin Strnad::RILB", "playerName": "Justin Strnad", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.3, "high": 73.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Justin Strnad's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Kage Casey::OL", "playerName": "Kage Casey", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kage Casey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Karene Reid::LB", "playerName": "Karene Reid", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 75.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Karene Reid's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Kris Abrams-Draine::CB", "playerName": "Kris Abrams-Draine", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kris Abrams-Draine's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Lil'Jordan Humphrey::WR", "playerName": "Lil'Jordan Humphrey", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3283, "expectedUsage": 0.3283, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Lil'Jordan Humphrey's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Luke Wattenberg::C", "playerName": "Luke Wattenberg", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.8, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Luke Wattenberg's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Malcolm Roach::DT2", "playerName": "Malcolm Roach", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.6, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malcolm Roach's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Marvin Mims Jr.::WR3", "playerName": "Marvin Mims Jr.", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3283, "expectedUsage": 0.3283, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Marvin Mims Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Matt Peart::OL", "playerName": "Matt Peart", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 57.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 57.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 45.8, "high": 68.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Matt Peart's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Mike McGlinchey::RT", "playerName": "Mike McGlinchey", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Mike McGlinchey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Mitchell Fraboni::LS", "playerName": "Mitchell Fraboni", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.3, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Sean Payton", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Mitchell Fraboni's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Nate Adkins::TE", "playerName": "Nate Adkins", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1066, "expectedUsage": 0.1066, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Nate Adkins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Nik Bonitto::LDE", "playerName": "Nik Bonitto", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.6, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nik Bonitto's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Pat Surtain II::CB1", "playerName": "Pat Surtain II", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.5, "high": 91.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Pat Surtain II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Que Robinson::EDGE", "playerName": "Que Robinson", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 74.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Que Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Quinn Meinerz::RG", "playerName": "Quinn Meinerz", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.1, "high": 90.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Quinn Meinerz's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Riley Moss::CB2", "playerName": "Riley Moss", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.1, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Riley Moss's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::RJ Harvey::RB", "playerName": "RJ Harvey", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.1, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4238, "expectedUsage": 0.4238, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.999, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "RJ Harvey's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Sai'vion Jones::RDE", "playerName": "Sai'vion Jones", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sai'vion Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Sam Ehlinger::QB", "playerName": "Sam Ehlinger", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 76.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5734, "expectedUsage": 0.5734, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Sam Ehlinger's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Talanoa Hufanga::SS", "playerName": "Talanoa Hufanga", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.2, "high": 88 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Talanoa Hufanga's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Troy Franklin::WR4", "playerName": "Troy Franklin", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 76.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3283, "expectedUsage": 0.3283, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9995, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Troy Franklin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Tycen Anderson::S", "playerName": "Tycen Anderson", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tycen Anderson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Tyler Badie::RB", "playerName": "Tyler Badie", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Davis Webb", "currentCoordinator": "Davis Webb", "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4238, "expectedUsage": 0.4238, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 20, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.999, "reason": "20th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Davis Webb transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyler Badie's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Tyler Onyedim::DT", "playerName": "Tyler Onyedim", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 76 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyler Onyedim's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Wil Lutz::K", "playerName": "Wil Lutz", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.8, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Sean Payton", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean Payton", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Wil Lutz's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Denver Broncos::Zach Allen::DT1", "playerName": "Zach Allen", "teamName": "Denver Broncos", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 86.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79.2, "high": 93.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vance Joseph", "currentCoordinator": "Vance Joseph", "priorLead": "Vance Joseph", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zach Allen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Ahmed Hassanein::EDGE", "playerName": "Ahmed Hassanein", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ahmed Hassanein's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Aidan Hutchinson::LDE", "playerName": "Aidan Hutchinson", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 87.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 87.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 80.9, "high": 94.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Aidan Hutchinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Alim McNeill::DT1", "playerName": "Alim McNeill", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.9, "high": 87.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alim McNeill's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Amen Ogbongbemiga::LB", "playerName": "Amen Ogbongbemiga", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Amen Ogbongbemiga's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Amon-Ra St. Brown::WR1", "playerName": "Amon-Ra St. Brown", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 84.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.8, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 75.8, "high": 93.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3271, "expectedUsage": 0.3024, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Amon-Ra St. Brown's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Ben Bartch::OL", "playerName": "Ben Bartch", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 60.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 60.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.6, "high": 71.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ben Bartch's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Bishop Fitzgerald::S", "playerName": "Bishop Fitzgerald", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bishop Fitzgerald's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Blake Miller::RT", "playerName": "Blake Miller", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Blake Miller's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Brock Wright::TE", "playerName": "Brock Wright", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 4.5, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 87.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.06, "baselineUsage": 0.0898, "expectedUsage": 0.1281, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 6.0%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Brock Wright's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Christian Izien::SS", "playerName": "Christian Izien", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Izien's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Christian Mahogany::LG", "playerName": "Christian Mahogany", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Christian Mahogany's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Chuck Clark::FS", "playerName": "Chuck Clark", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chuck Clark's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::D.J. Reed::CB1", "playerName": "D.J. Reed", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.3, "high": 90.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "D.J. Reed's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::D.J. Wonnum::EDGE", "playerName": "D.J. Wonnum", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 63, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 69.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "D.J. Wonnum's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Derrick Barnes::RDE", "playerName": "Derrick Barnes", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Derrick Barnes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Derrick Moore::EDGE", "playerName": "Derrick Moore", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.5, "high": 77.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Derrick Moore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Devin White::RILB", "playerName": "Devin White", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.1, "high": 87.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Devin White's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Ennis Rakestraw Jr.::CB", "playerName": "Ennis Rakestraw Jr.", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ennis Rakestraw Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Eric O'Neill::EDGE", "playerName": "Eric O'Neill", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Eric O'Neill's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Hogan Hatten::LS", "playerName": "Hogan Hatten", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dan Campbell", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Hogan Hatten's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Isaac TeSlaa::WR3", "playerName": "Isaac TeSlaa", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 65.1, "high": 86.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3271, "expectedUsage": 0.3024, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Isaac TeSlaa's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jack Campbell::MLB", "playerName": "Jack Campbell", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.6, "high": 87.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jack Fox::P", "playerName": "Jack Fox", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.6, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dan Campbell", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jack Fox's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jackson Meeks::WR", "playerName": "Jackson Meeks", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3271, "expectedUsage": 0.3024, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jackson Meeks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jacob Saylors::RB", "playerName": "Jacob Saylors", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 51.3, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5176, "expectedUsage": 0.4792, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0014, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jacob Saylors's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jahmyr Gibbs::RB", "playerName": "Jahmyr Gibbs", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 83.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.7, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 73.8, "high": 93.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5176, "expectedUsage": 0.4792, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0014, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jahmyr Gibbs's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jake Bates::K", "playerName": "Jake Bates", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.2, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dan Campbell", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jake Bates's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jameson Williams::WR2", "playerName": "Jameson Williams", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 80.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.7, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 71.5, "high": 89.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3271, "expectedUsage": 0.3024, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jameson Williams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jared Goff::QB", "playerName": "Jared Goff", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 85.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.1, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 78.6, "high": 93.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5684, "expectedUsage": 0.5694, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jared Goff's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Jimmy Rolder::LOLB", "playerName": "Jimmy Rolder", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jimmy Rolder's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Joshua Dobbs::QB", "playerName": "Joshua Dobbs", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.7, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5684, "expectedUsage": 0.5694, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Joshua Dobbs's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Juice Scruggs::C", "playerName": "Juice Scruggs", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Juice Scruggs's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Keith Abney II::CB", "playerName": "Keith Abney II", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keith Abney II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Khalil Dorsey::CB", "playerName": "Khalil Dorsey", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Khalil Dorsey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Larry Borom::OL", "playerName": "Larry Borom", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Larry Borom's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Levi Onwuzurike::DT", "playerName": "Levi Onwuzurike", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Levi Onwuzurike's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Malcolm Rodriguez::ROLB", "playerName": "Malcolm Rodriguez", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malcolm Rodriguez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Mekhi Wingo::DT", "playerName": "Mekhi Wingo", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.3, "high": 77.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mekhi Wingo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Miles Frazier::OL", "playerName": "Miles Frazier", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.1, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Miles Frazier's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Penei Sewell::LT", "playerName": "Penei Sewell", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 92.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 92.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 81.8, "high": 100 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Penei Sewell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Rock Ya-Sin::CB2", "playerName": "Rock Ya-Sin", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rock Ya-Sin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Roger McCreary::NB", "playerName": "Roger McCreary", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.2, "high": 74.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Roger McCreary's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Sam LaPorta::TE", "playerName": "Sam LaPorta", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 83.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 88.4, "contextDelta": 5.2, "planningRange": { "low": 79.4, "high": 97.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.06, "baselineUsage": 0.0898, "expectedUsage": 0.1281, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 6.0%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Sam LaPorta's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Seth McLaughlin::OL", "playerName": "Seth McLaughlin", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Seth McLaughlin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Sione Vaki::RB", "playerName": "Sione Vaki", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5176, "expectedUsage": 0.4792, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0014, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Sione Vaki's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Skyler Gill-Howard::DT", "playerName": "Skyler Gill-Howard", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 58.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 58.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.6, "high": 67 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Skyler Gill-Howard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Tate Ratledge::RG", "playerName": "Tate Ratledge", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tate Ratledge's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Tay Martin::WR4", "playerName": "Tay Martin", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3271, "expectedUsage": 0.3024, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tay Martin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Tom Kennedy::WR", "playerName": "Tom Kennedy", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 53.7, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3271, "expectedUsage": 0.3024, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tom Kennedy's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Trevor Nowaske::LB", "playerName": "Trevor Nowaske", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Trevor Nowaske's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Tyleik Williams::DT2", "playerName": "Tyleik Williams", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 63.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 71 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyleik Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Tyler Conklin::FB", "playerName": "Tyler Conklin", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 4.5, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 87.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Drew Petzing", "currentCoordinator": "Drew Petzing", "priorLead": "Dan Campbell", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.06, "baselineUsage": 0.0898, "expectedUsage": 0.1281, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 10, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "10th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 6.0%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Drew Petzing transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyler Conklin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Detroit Lions::Tyler Lacy::EDGE", "playerName": "Tyler Lacy", "teamName": "Detroit Lions", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 62.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 69.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "currentCoordinator": "Kelvin Sheppard", "priorLead": "Kelvin Sheppard", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyler Lacy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Aaron Banks::LG", "playerName": "Aaron Banks", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Aaron Banks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Anthony Belton::OL", "playerName": "Anthony Belton", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.5, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Anthony Belton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Anthony Campbell::DT", "playerName": "Anthony Campbell", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Anthony Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Barryn Sorrell::RDE", "playerName": "Barryn Sorrell", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Barryn Sorrell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Benjamin St-Juste::CB", "playerName": "Benjamin St-Juste", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Benjamin St-Juste's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Bo Melton::WR2", "playerName": "Bo Melton", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2895, "expectedUsage": 0.2895, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Bo Melton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Brandon Cisse::CB2", "playerName": "Brandon Cisse", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.3, "high": 90.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Brandon Cisse's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Brenton Cox Jr.::EDGE", "playerName": "Brenton Cox Jr.", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Brenton Cox Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Carrington Valentine::CB", "playerName": "Carrington Valentine", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.6, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Carrington Valentine's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Chris Brooks::RB", "playerName": "Chris Brooks", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 54.4, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.473, "expectedUsage": 0.473, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.999, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Chris Brooks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Chris McClellan::DT", "playerName": "Chris McClellan", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 58.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 58.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 48.3, "high": 68.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chris McClellan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Christian Watson::WR1", "playerName": "Christian Watson", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 69.4, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2895, "expectedUsage": 0.2895, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Christian Watson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Dani Dennis-Sutton::EDGE", "playerName": "Dani Dennis-Sutton", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.9, "high": 73.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dani Dennis-Sutton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Daniel Whelan::P", "playerName": "Daniel Whelan", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Daniel Whelan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Devonte Wyatt::DT2", "playerName": "Devonte Wyatt", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.5, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Devonte Wyatt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Donovan Jennings::OL", "playerName": "Donovan Jennings", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 76.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Donovan Jennings's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Evan Williams::SS", "playerName": "Evan Williams", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 83.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.1, "high": 92.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Evan Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Isaiah McDuffie::MLB", "playerName": "Isaiah McDuffie", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Isaiah McDuffie's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::J. Michael Sturdivant::WR", "playerName": "J. Michael Sturdivant", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.9, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2895, "expectedUsage": 0.2895, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "J. Michael Sturdivant's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Jacob Monk::RG", "playerName": "Jacob Monk", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jacob Monk's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Jager Burton::OL", "playerName": "Jager Burton", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jager Burton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Javon Bullard::NB", "playerName": "Javon Bullard", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.6, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Javon Bullard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Javon Hargrave::DT1", "playerName": "Javon Hargrave", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.4, "high": 89 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Javon Hargrave's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::John Williams::RT", "playerName": "John Williams", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 85.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "John Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Jonathan Ford::DT", "playerName": "Jonathan Ford", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.2, "high": 76 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonathan Ford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Jonnu Smith::FB", "playerName": "Jonnu Smith", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0999, "expectedUsage": 0.0999, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jonnu Smith's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Jordan Love::QB", "playerName": "Jordan Love", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 74.3, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4985, "expectedUsage": 0.4985, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jordan Love's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Jordan Morgan::LT", "playerName": "Jordan Morgan", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jordan Morgan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Josh Whyle::TE", "playerName": "Josh Whyle", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0999, "expectedUsage": 0.0999, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Josh Whyle's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Kaleb Johnson::RB", "playerName": "Kaleb Johnson", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.7, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.473, "expectedUsage": 0.473, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.999, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Kaleb Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Kamal Hadden::CB", "playerName": "Kamal Hadden", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kamal Hadden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Karl Brooks::DT", "playerName": "Karl Brooks", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 70 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Karl Brooks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Keisean Nixon::CB1", "playerName": "Keisean Nixon", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.1, "high": 87.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keisean Nixon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Kevin Zeitler::OL", "playerName": "Kevin Zeitler", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kevin Zeitler's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Kitan Oladapo::S", "playerName": "Kitan Oladapo", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kitan Oladapo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Kristian Welch::LB", "playerName": "Kristian Welch", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kristian Welch's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Laken Tomlinson::OL", "playerName": "Laken Tomlinson", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.5, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Laken Tomlinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Lukas Van Ness::LDE", "playerName": "Lukas Van Ness", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.6, "high": 90.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Lukas Van Ness's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Mark Redman::TE", "playerName": "Mark Redman", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0999, "expectedUsage": 0.0999, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Mark Redman's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::MarShawn Lloyd::RB", "playerName": "MarShawn Lloyd", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.473, "expectedUsage": 0.473, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.999, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "MarShawn Lloyd's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Matthew Golden::WR3", "playerName": "Matthew Golden", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 67.8, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2895, "expectedUsage": 0.2895, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Matthew Golden's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Matthew Orzech::LS", "playerName": "Matthew Orzech", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Matthew Orzech's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Nick Niemann::LOLB", "playerName": "Nick Niemann", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Niemann's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Pierre Strong::RB", "playerName": "Pierre Strong", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 50.9, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.473, "expectedUsage": 0.473, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.999, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Pierre Strong's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Sean Rhyan::C", "playerName": "Sean Rhyan", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Sean Rhyan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Skyy Moore::WR4", "playerName": "Skyy Moore", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2895, "expectedUsage": 0.2895, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Skyy Moore's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Travis Glover::OL", "playerName": "Travis Glover", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.7, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Travis Glover's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Trey Smack::K", "playerName": "Trey Smack", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Trey Smack's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Tucker Kraft::TE", "playerName": "Tucker Kraft", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0999, "expectedUsage": 0.0999, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tucker Kraft's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Ty'Ron Hopper::ROLB", "playerName": "Ty'Ron Hopper", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ty'Ron Hopper's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Tyrod Taylor::QB", "playerName": "Tyrod Taylor", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 64.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 71.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt LaFleur", "currentCoordinator": "Adam Stenavich", "priorLead": "Matt LaFleur", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4985, "expectedUsage": 0.4985, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tyrod Taylor's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Xavier McKinney::FS", "playerName": "Xavier McKinney", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.6, "high": 93.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Xavier McKinney's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Green Bay Packers::Zaire Franklin::RILB", "playerName": "Zaire Franklin", "teamName": "Green Bay Packers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Jonathan Gannon", "currentCoordinator": "Jonathan Gannon", "priorLead": "Jeff Hafley", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jonathan Gannon transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zaire Franklin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Aiden Fisher::LOLB", "playerName": "Aiden Fisher", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Aiden Fisher's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Aireontae Ersery::LT", "playerName": "Aireontae Ersery", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Aireontae Ersery's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Austin Brinkman::LS", "playerName": "Austin Brinkman", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "DeMeco Ryans", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "DeMeco Ryans", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Austin Brinkman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Azeez Al-Shaair::MLB", "playerName": "Azeez Al-Shaair", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.4, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Azeez Al-Shaair's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Blake Fisher::OL", "playerName": "Blake Fisher", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Blake Fisher's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Brevin Jordan::TE", "playerName": "Brevin Jordan", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 77.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.123, "expectedUsage": 0.123, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Brevin Jordan's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Bryce Oliver::WR", "playerName": "Bryce Oliver", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 53.7, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3273, "expectedUsage": 0.3273, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Bryce Oliver's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::C.J. Stroud::QB", "playerName": "C.J. Stroud", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 69.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5506, "expectedUsage": 0.5506, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "C.J. Stroud's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Cade Stover::TE", "playerName": "Cade Stover", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.123, "expectedUsage": 0.123, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Cade Stover's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Calen Bullock::FS", "playerName": "Calen Bullock", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Calen Bullock's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Chris Braswell::EDGE", "playerName": "Chris Braswell", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.3, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chris Braswell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Collin Wright::CB", "playerName": "Collin Wright", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Collin Wright's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Dalton Schultz::TE", "playerName": "Dalton Schultz", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 65.7, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.123, "expectedUsage": 0.123, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Dalton Schultz's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Danielle Hunter::RDE", "playerName": "Danielle Hunter", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 83.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.6, "high": 89.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Danielle Hunter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Dare Ogunbowale::RB", "playerName": "Dare Ogunbowale", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 51.4, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4503, "expectedUsage": 0.4503, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0027, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Dare Ogunbowale's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::David Montgomery::RB", "playerName": "David Montgomery", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 69, "high": 87.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4503, "expectedUsage": 0.4503, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0027, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "David Montgomery's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Davis Mills::QB", "playerName": "Davis Mills", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5506, "expectedUsage": 0.5506, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Davis Mills's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Derek Stingley Jr.::CB1", "playerName": "Derek Stingley Jr.", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.4, "high": 90 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Derek Stingley Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Dominique Robinson::EDGE", "playerName": "Dominique Robinson", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dominique Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Ed Ingram::RG", "playerName": "Ed Ingram", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ed Ingram's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Evan Brown::C", "playerName": "Evan Brown", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Evan Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Febechi Nwaiwu::OL", "playerName": "Febechi Nwaiwu", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Febechi Nwaiwu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Foster Moreau::FB", "playerName": "Foster Moreau", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 66.7, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.123, "expectedUsage": 0.123, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Foster Moreau's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jaden Crumedy::DT", "playerName": "Jaden Crumedy", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaden Crumedy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jadeveon Clowney::EDGE", "playerName": "Jadeveon Clowney", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.9, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jadeveon Clowney's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jake Andrews::OL", "playerName": "Jake Andrews", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.2, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jake Andrews's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jake Hansen::RILB", "playerName": "Jake Hansen", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jake Hansen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jalen Pitre::NB", "playerName": "Jalen Pitre", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.1, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jalen Pitre's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jamal Hill::LB", "playerName": "Jamal Hill", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jamal Hill's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jared Wayne::WR", "playerName": "Jared Wayne", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3273, "expectedUsage": 0.3273, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jared Wayne's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Jaylin Noel::WR4", "playerName": "Jaylin Noel", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3273, "expectedUsage": 0.3273, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jaylin Noel's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Ka'imi Fairbairn::K", "playerName": "Ka'imi Fairbairn", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.8, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "DeMeco Ryans", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "DeMeco Ryans", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ka'imi Fairbairn's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Kai Kroeger::P", "playerName": "Kai Kroeger", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "DeMeco Ryans", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "DeMeco Ryans", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Kai Kroeger's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Kamari Lassiter::CB2", "playerName": "Kamari Lassiter", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74, "high": 90.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kamari Lassiter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Kamari Ramsey::S", "playerName": "Kamari Ramsey", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.3, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kamari Ramsey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Kayshon Boutte::WR2", "playerName": "Kayshon Boutte", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3273, "expectedUsage": 0.3273, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Kayshon Boutte's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Keylan Rutledge::LG", "playerName": "Keylan Rutledge", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.4, "high": 85.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Keylan Rutledge's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Logan Hall::DT", "playerName": "Logan Hall", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 72.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Logan Hall's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Mark Gronowski::QB", "playerName": "Mark Gronowski", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 53.7, "high": 76.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5506, "expectedUsage": 0.5506, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Mark Gronowski's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Marlin Klein::TE", "playerName": "Marlin Klein", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.7, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.123, "expectedUsage": 0.123, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Marlin Klein's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Nathan Thomas::OL", "playerName": "Nathan Thomas", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.6, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Nathan Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Nico Collins::WR1", "playerName": "Nico Collins", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 81.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 73.9, "high": 90.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3273, "expectedUsage": 0.3273, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Nico Collins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Reed Blankenship::SS", "playerName": "Reed Blankenship", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Reed Blankenship's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Sabastian Harsh::EDGE", "playerName": "Sabastian Harsh", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sabastian Harsh's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Sheldon Rankins::DT2", "playerName": "Sheldon Rankins", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.2, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sheldon Rankins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Tommy Togiai::DT1", "playerName": "Tommy Togiai", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.1, "high": 89.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tommy Togiai's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Tremon Smith::CB", "playerName": "Tremon Smith", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tremon Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Trent Brown::RT", "playerName": "Trent Brown", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Trent Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Wade Woodaz::ROLB", "playerName": "Wade Woodaz", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Wade Woodaz's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Will Anderson Jr.::LDE", "playerName": "Will Anderson Jr.", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 89.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 89.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 83.1, "high": 96.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Matt Burke", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Burke", "priorLead": "Matt Burke", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Will Anderson Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Woody Marks::RB", "playerName": "Woody Marks", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.6, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4503, "expectedUsage": 0.4503, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0027, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Woody Marks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Wyatt Teller::OL", "playerName": "Wyatt Teller", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Wyatt Teller's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Houston Texans::Xavier Hutchinson::WR3", "playerName": "Xavier Hutchinson", "teamName": "Houston Texans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 75.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Nick Caley", "currentCoordinator": "Nick Caley", "priorLead": "Nick Caley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3273, "expectedUsage": 0.3273, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0029, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Xavier Hutchinson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::A.J. Haulcy::SS", "playerName": "A.J. Haulcy", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.3, "high": 70.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "A.J. Haulcy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Adetomiwa Adebawore::DT", "playerName": "Adetomiwa Adebawore", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Adetomiwa Adebawore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Akeem Davis-Gaither::MLB", "playerName": "Akeem Davis-Gaither", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.7, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Akeem Davis-Gaither's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Andrew Ogletree::TE", "playerName": "Andrew Ogletree", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.7, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1405, "expectedUsage": 0.1405, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Andrew Ogletree's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Anthony Gould::WR", "playerName": "Anthony Gould", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3155, "expectedUsage": 0.3155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Anthony Gould's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Anthony Richardson::QB", "playerName": "Anthony Richardson", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5531, "expectedUsage": 0.5531, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Anthony Richardson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Arden Key::LDE", "playerName": "Arden Key", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Arden Key's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Ashton Dulin::WR4", "playerName": "Ashton Dulin", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57.5, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3155, "expectedUsage": 0.3155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ashton Dulin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Austin Ajiake::RILB", "playerName": "Austin Ajiake", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.5, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Austin Ajiake's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Bernhard Raimann::LT", "playerName": "Bernhard Raimann", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.2, "high": 85.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Bernhard Raimann's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Bryce Boettcher::ROLB", "playerName": "Bryce Boettcher", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bryce Boettcher's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Caden Curry::EDGE", "playerName": "Caden Curry", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Caden Curry's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Cam Taylor-Britt::CB", "playerName": "Cam Taylor-Britt", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cam Taylor-Britt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Camryn Bynum::S", "playerName": "Camryn Bynum", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.4, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Camryn Bynum's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Charvarius Ward::CB2", "playerName": "Charvarius Ward", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.3, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Charvarius Ward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::CJ Allen::LB", "playerName": "CJ Allen", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "CJ Allen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Dalton Tucker::OL", "playerName": "Dalton Tucker", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 76.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dalton Tucker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Daniel Jones::QB", "playerName": "Daniel Jones", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 68.9, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5531, "expectedUsage": 0.5531, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Daniel Jones's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Darius Slayton::WR", "playerName": "Darius Slayton", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.9, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3155, "expectedUsage": 0.3155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Darius Slayton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::DeForest Buckner::DT2", "playerName": "DeForest Buckner", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 90.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 90.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 83.4, "high": 97.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DeForest Buckner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Deion Burks::WR1", "playerName": "Deion Burks", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3155, "expectedUsage": 0.3155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Deion Burks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::DJ Giddens::RB", "playerName": "DJ Giddens", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.455, "expectedUsage": 0.455, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9975, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "DJ Giddens's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::George Gumbs Jr.::EDGE", "playerName": "George Gumbs Jr.", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "George Gumbs Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Grover Stewart::DT1", "playerName": "Grover Stewart", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.3, "high": 88.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Grover Stewart's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Hunter Wohler::S", "playerName": "Hunter Wohler", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Hunter Wohler's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Jalen Farmer::OL", "playerName": "Jalen Farmer", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jalen Farmer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Jalen Travis::RT", "playerName": "Jalen Travis", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jalen Travis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Jaylahn Tuimoloau::EDGE", "playerName": "Jaylahn Tuimoloau", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylahn Tuimoloau's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Jaylon Carlies::LOLB", "playerName": "Jaylon Carlies", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 73.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylon Carlies's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Jerry Tillery::DT", "playerName": "Jerry Tillery", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 61.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 68.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jerry Tillery's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Jonathan Owens::FS", "playerName": "Jonathan Owens", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.4, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonathan Owens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Jonathan Taylor::RB", "playerName": "Jonathan Taylor", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 70.6, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.455, "expectedUsage": 0.455, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9975, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jonathan Taylor's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Josh Downs::WR2", "playerName": "Josh Downs", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3155, "expectedUsage": 0.3155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Josh Downs's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Justin Walley::NB", "playerName": "Justin Walley", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Justin Walley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Kapena Gushiken::CB", "playerName": "Kapena Gushiken", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kapena Gushiken's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Keenan Allen::WR3", "playerName": "Keenan Allen", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.6, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3155, "expectedUsage": 0.3155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Keenan Allen's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Laiatu Latu::RDE", "playerName": "Laiatu Latu", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.6, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Laiatu Latu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Laquon Treadwell::WR", "playerName": "Laquon Treadwell", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3155, "expectedUsage": 0.3155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Laquon Treadwell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Luke Rhodes::LS", "playerName": "Luke Rhodes", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Luke Rhodes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Luke Tenuta::OL", "playerName": "Luke Tenuta", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Luke Tenuta's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Matt Goncalves::RG", "playerName": "Matt Goncalves", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Matt Goncalves's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Mo Alie-Cox::FB", "playerName": "Mo Alie-Cox", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.2, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1405, "expectedUsage": 0.1405, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Mo Alie-Cox's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Quenton Nelson::LG", "playerName": "Quenton Nelson", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 92.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 92.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 83.3, "high": 100 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Quenton Nelson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Rigoberto Sanchez::P", "playerName": "Rigoberto Sanchez", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.1, "high": 90.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Rigoberto Sanchez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Riley Leonard::QB", "playerName": "Riley Leonard", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57.9, "high": 76.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5531, "expectedUsage": 0.5531, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Riley Leonard's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Sauce Gardner::CB1", "playerName": "Sauce Gardner", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.7, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sauce Gardner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Sedrick Van Pran-Granger::OL", "playerName": "Sedrick Van Pran-Granger", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.4, "high": 75 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Sedrick Van Pran-Granger's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Seth McGowan::RB", "playerName": "Seth McGowan", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.455, "expectedUsage": 0.455, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9975, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Seth McGowan's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Spencer Shrader::K", "playerName": "Spencer Shrader", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.3, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Spencer Shrader's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Tahj Chambers::LB", "playerName": "Tahj Chambers", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.8, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tahj Chambers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Tanor Bortolini::C", "playerName": "Tanor Bortolini", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.7, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tanor Bortolini's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Tim Smith::DT", "playerName": "Tim Smith", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 62.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.6, "high": 73.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Lou Anarumo", "currentCoordinator": "Lou Anarumo", "priorLead": "Lou Anarumo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tim Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Indianapolis Colts::Tyler Warren::TE", "playerName": "Tyler Warren", "teamName": "Indianapolis Colts", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.3, "high": 74.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Shane Steichen", "currentCoordinator": "Jim Bob Cooter", "priorLead": "Shane Steichen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1405, "expectedUsage": 0.1405, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 25, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9974, "reason": "25th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tyler Warren's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Albert Regis::DT", "playerName": "Albert Regis", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 76.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Albert Regis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Alijah Huzzie::CB", "playerName": "Alijah Huzzie", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.5, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alijah Huzzie's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ameer Abdullah::RB", "playerName": "Ameer Abdullah", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4287, "expectedUsage": 0.4287, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9971, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ameer Abdullah's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Anton Harrison::LT", "playerName": "Anton Harrison", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.7, "high": 88.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Anton Harrison's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Antonio Johnson::FS", "playerName": "Antonio Johnson", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.7, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Antonio Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Arik Armstead::DT1", "playerName": "Arik Armstead", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.2, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Arik Armstead's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Bhayshul Tuten::RB", "playerName": "Bhayshul Tuten", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4287, "expectedUsage": 0.4287, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9971, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Bhayshul Tuten's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Branson Combs::LOLB", "playerName": "Branson Combs", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Branson Combs's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Brenton Strange::TE", "playerName": "Brenton Strange", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 66.9, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0998, "expectedUsage": 0.0998, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Brenton Strange's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Brian Thomas Jr.::WR1", "playerName": "Brian Thomas Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3032, "expectedUsage": 0.3032, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Brian Thomas Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Bryan Thomas Jr.::EDGE", "playerName": "Bryan Thomas Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bryan Thomas Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::C.J. Williams::WR", "playerName": "C.J. Williams", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3032, "expectedUsage": 0.3032, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "C.J. Williams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Cam Little::K", "playerName": "Cam Little", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.5, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Cam Little's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Chris Rodriguez Jr.::RB", "playerName": "Chris Rodriguez Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 66.1, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4287, "expectedUsage": 0.4287, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9971, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Cole Van Lanen::RT", "playerName": "Cole Van Lanen", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 73.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Cole Van Lanen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Daniel Faalele::OL", "playerName": "Daniel Faalele", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 76.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Daniel Faalele's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Danny Striggow::EDGE", "playerName": "Danny Striggow", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Danny Striggow's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::DaVon Hamilton::DT2", "playerName": "DaVon Hamilton", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 75.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DaVon Hamilton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Dennis Gardeck::ROLB", "playerName": "Dennis Gardeck", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dennis Gardeck's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Emmanuel Pregnon::LG", "playerName": "Emmanuel Pregnon", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Emmanuel Pregnon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Eric Murray::SS", "playerName": "Eric Murray", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 72.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Eric Murray's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ezra Cleveland::RG", "playerName": "Ezra Cleveland", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.2, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ezra Cleveland's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Foye Oluokun::MLB", "playerName": "Foye Oluokun", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 74.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Foye Oluokun's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jack Kiser::LB", "playerName": "Jack Kiser", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.6, "high": 78.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Kiser's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jahlani Tavai::RILB", "playerName": "Jahlani Tavai", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.2, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jahlani Tavai's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jakobi Meyers::WR3", "playerName": "Jakobi Meyers", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3032, "expectedUsage": 0.3032, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Jakobi Meyers's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jalen Huskey::S", "playerName": "Jalen Huskey", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jalen Huskey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jarrian Jones::CB", "playerName": "Jarrian Jones", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.9, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jarrian Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jaylon Jones::CB", "playerName": "Jaylon Jones", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylon Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jonah Monheim::OL", "playerName": "Jonah Monheim", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jonah Monheim's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Josh Cameron::WR", "playerName": "Josh Cameron", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.8, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3032, "expectedUsage": 0.3032, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Josh Cameron's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Josh Hines-Allen::RDE", "playerName": "Josh Hines-Allen", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 86.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79.6, "high": 92.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Hines-Allen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Jourdan Lewis::NB", "playerName": "Jourdan Lewis", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.1, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jourdan Lewis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::LeQuint Allen Jr.::RB", "playerName": "LeQuint Allen Jr.", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 51.2, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4287, "expectedUsage": 0.4287, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9971, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "LeQuint Allen Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Logan Cooke::P", "playerName": "Logan Cooke", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.9, "high": 89.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Logan Cooke's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Matt Dickerson::DT", "playerName": "Matt Dickerson", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Matt Dickerson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Montaric Brown::CB2", "playerName": "Montaric Brown", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Montaric Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Nate Boerkircher::TE", "playerName": "Nate Boerkircher", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0998, "expectedUsage": 0.0998, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Nate Boerkircher's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Parker Washington::WR2", "playerName": "Parker Washington", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3032, "expectedUsage": 0.3032, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Parker Washington's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Quinn Ewers::QB", "playerName": "Quinn Ewers", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 76.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5352, "expectedUsage": 0.5352, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Quinn Ewers's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Quintin Morris::FB", "playerName": "Quintin Morris", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0998, "expectedUsage": 0.0998, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Quintin Morris's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Rayuan Lane III::S", "playerName": "Rayuan Lane III", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rayuan Lane III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Robert Hainsey::C", "playerName": "Robert Hainsey", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Robert Hainsey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ross Matiscik::LS", "playerName": "Ross Matiscik", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ross Matiscik's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ruke Orhorhoro::DT", "playerName": "Ruke Orhorhoro", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.6, "high": 72 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ruke Orhorhoro's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Tanner Koziol::TE", "playerName": "Tanner Koziol", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57.1, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.0998, "expectedUsage": 0.0998, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tanner Koziol's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Travis Hunter::CB1", "playerName": "Travis Hunter", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.4, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Travis Hunter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Travis Hunter::WR4", "playerName": "Travis Hunter", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3032, "expectedUsage": 0.3032, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Travis Hunter's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Travon Walker::LDE", "playerName": "Travon Walker", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Travon Walker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Trevor Lawrence::QB", "playerName": "Trevor Lawrence", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 73.7, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5352, "expectedUsage": 0.5352, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Trevor Lawrence's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Ventrell Miller::LB", "playerName": "Ventrell Miller", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.2, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ventrell Miller's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Walker Little::OL", "playerName": "Walker Little", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 75.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Walker Little's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Wesley Williams::EDGE", "playerName": "Wesley Williams", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.6, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Anthony Campanile", "currentCoordinator": "Anthony Campanile", "priorLead": "Anthony Campanile", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Wesley Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Jacksonville Jaguars::Wyatt Milum::OL", "playerName": "Wyatt Milum", "teamName": "Jacksonville Jaguars", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 78.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Liam Coen", "currentCoordinator": "Grant Udinski", "priorLead": "Liam Coen", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Wyatt Milum's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Alohi Gilman::FS", "playerName": "Alohi Gilman", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alohi Gilman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Ashton Gillotte::RDE", "playerName": "Ashton Gillotte", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 71 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ashton Gillotte's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Ben VanSumeren::RB", "playerName": "Ben VanSumeren", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.2, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4191, "expectedUsage": 0.4191, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9999, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Ben VanSumeren's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Brashard Smith::RB", "playerName": "Brashard Smith", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4191, "expectedUsage": 0.4191, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9999, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Brashard Smith's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Bryson Eason::DT", "playerName": "Bryson Eason", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 74.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bryson Eason's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Chamarri Conner::SS", "playerName": "Chamarri Conner", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.8, "high": 89.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chamarri Conner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Chris Jones::DT1", "playerName": "Chris Jones", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 88, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 88, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79, "high": 97 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chris Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Christian Roland-Wallace::CB", "playerName": "Christian Roland-Wallace", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.4, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Roland-Wallace's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Creed Humphrey::C", "playerName": "Creed Humphrey", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 91.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 91.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 80.8, "high": 100 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Creed Humphrey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Cyrus Allen::WR4", "playerName": "Cyrus Allen", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.5, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3077, "expectedUsage": 0.3077, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cyrus Allen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Diego Pounds::OL", "playerName": "Diego Pounds", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Diego Pounds's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Drue Tranquill::LOLB", "playerName": "Drue Tranquill", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.2, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Drue Tranquill's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Emmett Johnson::RB", "playerName": "Emmett Johnson", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4191, "expectedUsage": 0.4191, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9999, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Emmett Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Felix Anudike-Uzomah::EDGE", "playerName": "Felix Anudike-Uzomah", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.5, "high": 75.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Felix Anudike-Uzomah's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Garrett Nussmeier::QB", "playerName": "Garrett Nussmeier", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5759, "expectedUsage": 0.5759, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Garrett Nussmeier's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::George Karlaftis::LDE", "playerName": "George Karlaftis", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 88.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 88.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 81.5, "high": 94.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "George Karlaftis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Harrison Butker::K", "playerName": "Harrison Butker", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.6, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Harrison Butker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Hunter Nourzad::OL", "playerName": "Hunter Nourzad", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.3, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Hunter Nourzad's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jack Cochrane::RILB", "playerName": "Jack Cochrane", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Cochrane's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jack Pyburn::EDGE", "playerName": "Jack Pyburn", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 74.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Pyburn's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jaden Hicks::S", "playerName": "Jaden Hicks", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 75 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaden Hicks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jadon Canady::NB", "playerName": "Jadon Canady", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jadon Canady's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jake Briningstool::TE", "playerName": "Jake Briningstool", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.145, "expectedUsage": 0.145, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jake Briningstool's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jalen Royals::WR", "playerName": "Jalen Royals", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3077, "expectedUsage": 0.3077, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jalen Royals's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::James Winchester::LS", "playerName": "James Winchester", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "James Winchester's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jared Wiley::TE", "playerName": "Jared Wiley", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.1, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.145, "expectedUsage": 0.145, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jared Wiley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jaylon Moore::RT", "playerName": "Jaylon Moore", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.1, "high": 72.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jaylon Moore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Jeffrey Bassa::ROLB", "playerName": "Jeffrey Bassa", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jeffrey Bassa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Josh Simmons::LT", "playerName": "Josh Simmons", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.3, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Josh Simmons's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Joshua Ezeudu::OL", "playerName": "Joshua Ezeudu", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 76.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Joshua Ezeudu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Justin Fields::QB", "playerName": "Justin Fields", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5759, "expectedUsage": 0.5759, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Justin Fields's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Kahlil Benson::OL", "playerName": "Kahlil Benson", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kahlil Benson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Kenneth Walker III::RB", "playerName": "Kenneth Walker III", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4191, "expectedUsage": 0.4191, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9999, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kenneth Walker III's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Khyiris Tonga::DT2", "playerName": "Khyiris Tonga", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 60.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 60.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 67.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Khyiris Tonga's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Kingsley Suamataia::LG", "playerName": "Kingsley Suamataia", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kingsley Suamataia's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Kristian Fulton::CB", "playerName": "Kristian Fulton", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kristian Fulton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::L'Jarius Sneed::CB1", "playerName": "L'Jarius Sneed", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "L'Jarius Sneed's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Mansoor Delane::CB2", "playerName": "Mansoor Delane", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mansoor Delane's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Matt Araiza::P", "playerName": "Matt Araiza", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.8, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Matt Araiza's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Mike Caliendo::OL", "playerName": "Mike Caliendo", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Mike Caliendo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Nick Bolton::MLB", "playerName": "Nick Bolton", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Bolton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Nikko Remigio::WR", "playerName": "Nikko Remigio", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.7, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3077, "expectedUsage": 0.3077, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Nikko Remigio's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Noah Gray::FB", "playerName": "Noah Gray", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.145, "expectedUsage": 0.145, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Noah Gray's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Nohl Williams::CB", "playerName": "Nohl Williams", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.7, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nohl Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Patrick Mahomes::QB", "playerName": "Patrick Mahomes", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 89.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 89.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 81.8, "high": 96.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5759, "expectedUsage": 0.5759, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Patrick Mahomes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Peter Woods::DT", "playerName": "Peter Woods", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 62.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.6, "high": 71.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Peter Woods's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::R Mason Thomas::EDGE", "playerName": "R Mason Thomas", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.1, "high": 72.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "R Mason Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Rashee Rice::WR1", "playerName": "Rashee Rice", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3077, "expectedUsage": 0.3077, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rashee Rice's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Travis Kelce::TE", "playerName": "Travis Kelce", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.9, "high": 88.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.145, "expectedUsage": 0.145, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Travis Kelce's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Trey Smith::RG", "playerName": "Trey Smith", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.9, "high": 89.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Trey Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Tyquan Thornton::WR3", "playerName": "Tyquan Thornton", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3077, "expectedUsage": 0.3077, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyquan Thornton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Xavier Nwankpa::S", "playerName": "Xavier Nwankpa", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "currentCoordinator": "Steve Spagnuolo", "priorLead": "Steve Spagnuolo", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Xavier Nwankpa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Kansas City Chiefs::Xavier Worthy::WR2", "playerName": "Xavier Worthy", "teamName": "Kansas City Chiefs", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 73.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Andy Reid", "currentCoordinator": "Eric Bieniemy", "priorLead": "Andy Reid", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3077, "expectedUsage": 0.3077, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 17, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "17th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Andy Reid transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Xavier Worthy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Adam Butler::DT1", "playerName": "Adam Butler", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.6, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Adam Butler's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Aidan O'Connell::QB", "playerName": "Aidan O'Connell", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5826, "expectedUsage": 0.5558, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Aidan O'Connell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::AJ Cole::P", "playerName": "AJ Cole", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.3, "high": 88.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Pete Carroll", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "AJ Cole's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Alex Ward::LS", "playerName": "Alex Ward", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.5, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Pete Carroll", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Alex Ward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Ashton Jeanty::RB", "playerName": "Ashton Jeanty", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4548, "expectedUsage": 0.4676, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9968, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ashton Jeanty's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Brock Bowers::TE", "playerName": "Brock Bowers", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 83.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.8, "contextDelta": -3.1, "planningRange": { "low": 68.3, "high": 93.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9656, "baselineUsage": 0.1765, "expectedUsage": 0.1481, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 3.4%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Brock Bowers's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Bryce Cabeldue::OL", "playerName": "Bryce Cabeldue", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Bryce Cabeldue's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Caleb Rogers::OL", "playerName": "Caleb Rogers", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Caleb Rogers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Charles Grant::OL", "playerName": "Charles Grant", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.4, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Charles Grant's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Cody Lindenberg::LB", "playerName": "Cody Lindenberg", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.2, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cody Lindenberg's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Cody White::WR", "playerName": "Cody White", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 50.5, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2738, "expectedUsage": 0.2804, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Cody White's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Connor Heyward::FB", "playerName": "Connor Heyward", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 90.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Connor Heyward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dalton Johnson::S", "playerName": "Dalton Johnson", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dalton Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dareke Young::WR3", "playerName": "Dareke Young", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.3, "high": 88.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2738, "expectedUsage": 0.2804, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dareke Young's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Darien Porter::NB", "playerName": "Darien Porter", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.4, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Darien Porter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Darrell Luter Jr.::CB", "playerName": "Darrell Luter Jr.", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Darrell Luter Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::DJ Glaze::RT", "playerName": "DJ Glaze", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 88.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "DJ Glaze's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Dylan Laube::RB", "playerName": "Dylan Laube", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4548, "expectedUsage": 0.4676, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9968, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dylan Laube's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Eric Stokes::CB1", "playerName": "Eric Stokes", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.7, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Eric Stokes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Fernando Mendoza::QB", "playerName": "Fernando Mendoza", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.1, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5826, "expectedUsage": 0.5558, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Fernando Mendoza's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Foley Fatukasi::DT", "playerName": "Foley Fatukasi", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Foley Fatukasi's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Hezekiah Masses::CB", "playerName": "Hezekiah Masses", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Hezekiah Masses's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Ian Thomas::TE", "playerName": "Ian Thomas", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": -2.6, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9656, "baselineUsage": 0.1765, "expectedUsage": 0.1481, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 3.4%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ian Thomas's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Isaiah Pola-Mao::S", "playerName": "Isaiah Pola-Mao", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Isaiah Pola-Mao's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jackson Powers-Johnson::RG", "playerName": "Jackson Powers-Johnson", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jackson Powers-Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jalen Nailor::WR2", "playerName": "Jalen Nailor", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2738, "expectedUsage": 0.2804, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jalen Nailor's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jeremy Chinn::SS", "playerName": "Jeremy Chinn", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 85.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.5, "high": 96.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jeremy Chinn's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jermod McCoy::CB", "playerName": "Jermod McCoy", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jermod McCoy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::JJ Pegues::DT", "playerName": "JJ Pegues", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.2, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "JJ Pegues's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Jonah Laulu::DT", "playerName": "Jonah Laulu", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 83.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonah Laulu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Kirk Cousins::QB", "playerName": "Kirk Cousins", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 70.2, "high": 88.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5826, "expectedUsage": 0.5558, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kirk Cousins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Kolton Miller::LT", "playerName": "Kolton Miller", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kolton Miller's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Kwity Paye::RDE", "playerName": "Kwity Paye", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kwity Paye's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Malcolm Koonce::EDGE", "playerName": "Malcolm Koonce", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malcolm Koonce's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Malik Benson::WR4", "playerName": "Malik Benson", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2738, "expectedUsage": 0.2804, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Malik Benson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Matt Gay::K", "playerName": "Matt Gay", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.8, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Pete Carroll", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Matt Gay's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Maxx Crosby::LDE", "playerName": "Maxx Crosby", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.2, "high": 94.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Maxx Crosby's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Michael Mayer::TE", "playerName": "Michael Mayer", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": -2.6, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9656, "baselineUsage": 0.1765, "expectedUsage": 0.1481, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 3.4%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Michael Mayer's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Mike Washington Jr.::RB", "playerName": "Mike Washington Jr.", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.6, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4548, "expectedUsage": 0.4676, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 30, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9968, "reason": "30th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Mike Washington Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Nakobe Dean::MLB", "playerName": "Nakobe Dean", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.9, "high": 86.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nakobe Dean's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Patrick Johnson::EDGE", "playerName": "Patrick Johnson", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Patrick Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Quay Walker::RILB", "playerName": "Quay Walker", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.9, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Quay Walker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Segun Olubi::LOLB", "playerName": "Segun Olubi", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Segun Olubi's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Spencer Burford::LG", "playerName": "Spencer Burford", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Spencer Burford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Taron Johnson::CB2", "playerName": "Taron Johnson", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Taron Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Thomas Booker::DT", "playerName": "Thomas Booker", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Thomas Booker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Tommy Eichenberg::ROLB", "playerName": "Tommy Eichenberg", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.9, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tommy Eichenberg's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Tonka Hemingway::DT2", "playerName": "Tonka Hemingway", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tonka Hemingway's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Tre Tucker::WR1", "playerName": "Tre Tucker", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2738, "expectedUsage": 0.2804, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 26, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "26th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tre Tucker's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Trey Zuhn III::OL", "playerName": "Trey Zuhn III", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Trey Zuhn III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Treydan Stukes::FS", "playerName": "Treydan Stukes", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.5, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Treydan Stukes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Tristin McCollum::CB", "playerName": "Tristin McCollum", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Rob Leonard", "currentCoordinator": "Rob Leonard", "priorLead": "Patrick Graham", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Rob Leonard transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tristin McCollum's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Las Vegas Raiders::Tyler Linderbaum::C", "playerName": "Tyler Linderbaum", "teamName": "Las Vegas Raiders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 83.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.3, "high": 95.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Klint Kubiak", "currentCoordinator": "Andrew Janocko", "priorLead": "Chip Kelly", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Klint Kubiak transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tyler Linderbaum's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Akheem Mesidor::EDGE", "playerName": "Akheem Mesidor", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 75.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Akheem Mesidor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Alec Ingold::FB", "playerName": "Alec Ingold", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 90.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Alec Ingold's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Alex Harkey::OL", "playerName": "Alex Harkey", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Alex Harkey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Brenen Thompson::WR4", "playerName": "Brenen Thompson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3575, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Brenen Thompson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Bud Dupree::EDGE", "playerName": "Bud Dupree", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.2, "high": 70.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bud Dupree's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Cam Hart::NB", "playerName": "Cam Hart", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.1, "high": 77.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cam Hart's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Cameron Dicker::K", "playerName": "Cameron Dicker", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.6, "high": 85.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jim Harbaugh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Jim Harbaugh", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Cameron Dicker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Charlie Kolar::TE", "playerName": "Charlie Kolar", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.6, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0166, "baselineUsage": 0.0957, "expectedUsage": 0.1039, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 1.7%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Charlie Kolar's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Cole Strange::RG", "playerName": "Cole Strange", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Cole Strange's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Daiyan Henley::MLB", "playerName": "Daiyan Henley", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Daiyan Henley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Dalvin Tomlinson::DT1", "playerName": "Dalvin Tomlinson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dalvin Tomlinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Deane Leonard::CB", "playerName": "Deane Leonard", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.1, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Deane Leonard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Del'Shawn Phillips::RILB", "playerName": "Del'Shawn Phillips", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Del'Shawn Phillips's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Derius Davis::WR", "playerName": "Derius Davis", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3575, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Derius Davis's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Derwin James Jr.::SS", "playerName": "Derwin James Jr.", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.2, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Derwin James Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::DJ Uiagalelei::QB", "playerName": "DJ Uiagalelei", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5498, "expectedUsage": 0.5493, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "DJ Uiagalelei's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Donte Jackson::CB2", "playerName": "Donte Jackson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Donte Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Elijah Molden::FS", "playerName": "Elijah Molden", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.7, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Molden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Genesis Smith::S", "playerName": "Genesis Smith", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 74.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Genesis Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Hayden Rucci::TE", "playerName": "Hayden Rucci", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0.9, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0166, "baselineUsage": 0.0957, "expectedUsage": 0.1039, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 1.7%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Hayden Rucci's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Jacob Spomer::OL", "playerName": "Jacob Spomer", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jacob Spomer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Jake Slaughter::C", "playerName": "Jake Slaughter", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jake Slaughter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Jamaree Caldwell::DT", "playerName": "Jamaree Caldwell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 76 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jamaree Caldwell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::JK Scott::P", "playerName": "JK Scott", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jim Harbaugh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Jim Harbaugh", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "JK Scott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Joe Alt::RT", "playerName": "Joe Alt", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.5, "high": 88.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Joe Alt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Josh Harris::LS", "playerName": "Josh Harris", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jim Harbaugh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Jim Harbaugh", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Josh Harris's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Justin Eboigbe::DT", "playerName": "Justin Eboigbe", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.3, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Justin Eboigbe's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Justin Herbert::QB", "playerName": "Justin Herbert", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 70.8, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5498, "expectedUsage": 0.5493, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Justin Herbert's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Kayode Awosika::LG", "playerName": "Kayode Awosika", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 86.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kayode Awosika's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Keaton Mitchell::RB", "playerName": "Keaton Mitchell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4145, "expectedUsage": 0.4492, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9954, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Keaton Mitchell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Kendall Williamson::S", "playerName": "Kendall Williamson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kendall Williamson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Khalil Mack::LDE", "playerName": "Khalil Mack", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.8, "high": 90.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Khalil Mack's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Kimani Vidal::RB", "playerName": "Kimani Vidal", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 60.2, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4145, "expectedUsage": 0.4492, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9954, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kimani Vidal's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Ladd McConkey::WR1", "playerName": "Ladd McConkey", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3575, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Ladd McConkey's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Logan Taylor::OL", "playerName": "Logan Taylor", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.4, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Logan Taylor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Marlowe Wax::LOLB", "playerName": "Marlowe Wax", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Marlowe Wax's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Marquez Valdes-Scantling::WR", "playerName": "Marquez Valdes-Scantling", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3575, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Marquez Valdes-Scantling's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Nick Barrett::DT", "playerName": "Nick Barrett", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.4, "high": 75.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Barrett's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Omarion Hampton::RB", "playerName": "Omarion Hampton", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4145, "expectedUsage": 0.4492, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9954, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Omarion Hampton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Oronde Gadsden II::TE", "playerName": "Oronde Gadsden II", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0166, "baselineUsage": 0.0957, "expectedUsage": 0.1039, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 1.7%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Oronde Gadsden II's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Quentin Johnston::WR2", "playerName": "Quentin Johnston", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3575, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Quentin Johnston's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::R.J. Mickens::S", "playerName": "R.J. Mickens", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 76.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "R.J. Mickens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Rodney Shelley::CB", "playerName": "Rodney Shelley", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rodney Shelley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Tarheeb Still::CB1", "playerName": "Tarheeb Still", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.8, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tarheeb Still's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Teair Tart::DT2", "playerName": "Teair Tart", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.4, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Teair Tart's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Tony Jefferson::S", "playerName": "Tony Jefferson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tony Jefferson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Travis Burke::LT", "playerName": "Travis Burke", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Travis Burke's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Tre' Harris::WR3", "playerName": "Tre' Harris", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3575, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tre' Harris's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Trevor Penning::OL", "playerName": "Trevor Penning", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Trevor Penning's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Trey Lance::QB", "playerName": "Trey Lance", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 75.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McDaniel", "currentCoordinator": "Mike McDaniel", "priorLead": "Greg Roman", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5498, "expectedUsage": 0.5493, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 29, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9966, "reason": "29th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McDaniel transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Trey Lance's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Troy Dye::ROLB", "playerName": "Troy Dye", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Troy Dye's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Chargers::Tuli Tuipulotu::RDE", "playerName": "Tuli Tuipulotu", "teamName": "Los Angeles Chargers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 87.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 87.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79.5, "high": 95.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris O'Leary", "currentCoordinator": "Chris O'Leary", "priorLead": "Jesse Minter", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Chris O'Leary transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tuli Tuipulotu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Aaron Donald::DT", "playerName": "Aaron Donald", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Aaron Donald's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Alaric Jackson::LT", "playerName": "Alaric Jackson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Alaric Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Alex Bachman::WR", "playerName": "Alex Bachman", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3452, "expectedUsage": 0.3452, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Alex Bachman's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Beaux Limmer::OL", "playerName": "Beaux Limmer", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Beaux Limmer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Bill Murray::OL", "playerName": "Bill Murray", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 78.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Bill Murray's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Blake Corum::RB", "playerName": "Blake Corum", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4487, "expectedUsage": 0.4487, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0014, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Blake Corum's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Braden Fiske::DT", "playerName": "Braden Fiske", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.6, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Braden Fiske's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Byron Young::LDE", "playerName": "Byron Young", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 88.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 88.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 82.1, "high": 95.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Byron Young's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::CJ Daniels::WR", "playerName": "CJ Daniels", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.2, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3452, "expectedUsage": 0.3452, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "CJ Daniels's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Colby Parkinson::TE", "playerName": "Colby Parkinson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.6, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1411, "expectedUsage": 0.1411, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Colby Parkinson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Coleman Shelton::C", "playerName": "Coleman Shelton", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Coleman Shelton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Davante Adams::WR2", "playerName": "Davante Adams", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 70.3, "high": 88.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3452, "expectedUsage": 0.3452, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Davante Adams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::David Quessenberry::OL", "playerName": "David Quessenberry", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.4, "high": 74.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "David Quessenberry's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Davis Allen::TE", "playerName": "Davis Allen", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1411, "expectedUsage": 0.1411, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Davis Allen's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Dean Connors::RB", "playerName": "Dean Connors", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 49.5, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4487, "expectedUsage": 0.4487, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0014, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Dean Connors's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Desjuan Johnson::EDGE", "playerName": "Desjuan Johnson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.7, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Desjuan Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Dylan McMahon::OL", "playerName": "Dylan McMahon", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dylan McMahon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Emmanuel Forbes::CB", "playerName": "Emmanuel Forbes", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Emmanuel Forbes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Ethan Evans::P", "playerName": "Ethan Evans", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ethan Evans's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Grant Stuard::LOLB", "playerName": "Grant Stuard", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.5, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Grant Stuard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Harrison Mevis::K", "playerName": "Harrison Mevis", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68, "high": 85.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Harrison Mevis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Jaylen McCollough::S", "playerName": "Jaylen McCollough", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylen McCollough's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Jaylen Watson::CB1", "playerName": "Jaylen Watson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.6, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylen Watson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Joe Cardona::LS", "playerName": "Joe Cardona", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Joe Cardona's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Jordan Whittington::WR3", "playerName": "Jordan Whittington", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3452, "expectedUsage": 0.3452, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jordan Whittington's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Josaiah Stewart::EDGE", "playerName": "Josaiah Stewart", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 74.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josaiah Stewart's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Josh Wallace::CB", "playerName": "Josh Wallace", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Wallace's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Kam Curl::FS", "playerName": "Kam Curl", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kam Curl's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Kamren Kinchens::NB", "playerName": "Kamren Kinchens", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.9, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kamren Kinchens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Kevin Dotson::RG", "playerName": "Kevin Dotson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kevin Dotson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Kobie Turner::DT2", "playerName": "Kobie Turner", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 86.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79.9, "high": 93.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kobie Turner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Konata Mumpfield::WR4", "playerName": "Konata Mumpfield", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 60.5, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3452, "expectedUsage": 0.3452, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Konata Mumpfield's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Kyren Williams::RB", "playerName": "Kyren Williams", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.5, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 69.5, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4487, "expectedUsage": 0.4487, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0014, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kyren Williams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Larrell Murchison::DT", "playerName": "Larrell Murchison", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.5, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Larrell Murchison's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Matthew Stafford::QB", "playerName": "Matthew Stafford", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 85.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.4, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 77.9, "high": 92.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5626, "expectedUsage": 0.5626, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Matthew Stafford's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Max Klare::TE", "playerName": "Max Klare", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1411, "expectedUsage": 0.1411, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Max Klare's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Maximus Pulley::S", "playerName": "Maximus Pulley", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.6, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Maximus Pulley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Nate Landman::MLB", "playerName": "Nate Landman", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.5, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nate Landman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Omar Speights::RILB", "playerName": "Omar Speights", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Omar Speights's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Poona Ford::DT1", "playerName": "Poona Ford", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.2, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Poona Ford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Puka Nacua::WR1", "playerName": "Puka Nacua", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 84.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.4, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 75.3, "high": 93.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3452, "expectedUsage": 0.3452, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Puka Nacua's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Quentin Lake::SS", "playerName": "Quentin Lake", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 84, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.1, "high": 91.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Quentin Lake's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Shaun Dolac::ROLB", "playerName": "Shaun Dolac", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Shaun Dolac's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Stetson Bennett::QB", "playerName": "Stetson Bennett", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5626, "expectedUsage": 0.5626, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Stetson Bennett's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Steve Avila::LG", "playerName": "Steve Avila", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67, "high": 88.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Steve Avila's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Trent McDuffie::CB2", "playerName": "Trent McDuffie", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.3, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Trent McDuffie's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Tutu Atwell::WR", "playerName": "Tutu Atwell", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3452, "expectedUsage": 0.3452, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tutu Atwell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Ty Hamilton::DT", "playerName": "Ty Hamilton", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.9, "high": 76.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ty Hamilton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Ty Simpson::QB", "playerName": "Ty Simpson", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5626, "expectedUsage": 0.5626, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ty Simpson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Tyler Davis::RDE", "playerName": "Tyler Davis", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.2, "high": 75.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyler Davis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Tyler Higbee::FB", "playerName": "Tyler Higbee", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1411, "expectedUsage": 0.1411, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 8, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "8th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyler Higbee's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Warren McClendon Jr.::RT", "playerName": "Warren McClendon Jr.", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.2, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean McVay", "currentCoordinator": "Nate Scheelhaase", "priorLead": "Sean McVay", "transition": "coordinator-change-same-caller", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean McVay transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Warren McClendon Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Los Angeles Rams::Wesley Bailey::EDGE", "playerName": "Wesley Bailey", "teamName": "Los Angeles Rams", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 76.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Chris Shula", "currentCoordinator": "Chris Shula", "priorLead": "Chris Shula", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Wesley Bailey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Aaron Brewer::C", "playerName": "Aaron Brewer", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Aaron Brewer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Andre Jones Jr.::EDGE", "playerName": "Andre Jones Jr.", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.5, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Andre Jones Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Andrew Meyer::OL", "playerName": "Andrew Meyer", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Andrew Meyer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Austin Jackson::RT", "playerName": "Austin Jackson", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Austin Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Bradley Pinion::P", "playerName": "Bradley Pinion", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jeff Hafley", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Hafley transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Bradley Pinion's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Brady Cook::QB", "playerName": "Brady Cook", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 62.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 72.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5258, "expectedUsage": 0.5412, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Brady Cook's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Caedan Wallace::OL", "playerName": "Caedan Wallace", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Caedan Wallace's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Caleb Douglas::WR2", "playerName": "Caleb Douglas", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 87.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2689, "expectedUsage": 0.2954, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Caleb Douglas's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Chop Robinson::LDE", "playerName": "Chop Robinson", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 76.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chop Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Chris Bell::WR3", "playerName": "Chris Bell", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 88.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2689, "expectedUsage": 0.2954, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chris Bell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Chris Johnson::NB", "playerName": "Chris Johnson", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 91.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chris Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Chukwuebuka Godrick::OL", "playerName": "Chukwuebuka Godrick", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.1, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Chukwuebuka Godrick's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Dante Trader Jr.::SS", "playerName": "Dante Trader Jr.", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dante Trader Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::DJ Campbell::OL", "playerName": "DJ Campbell", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 83.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "DJ Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::DJ Herman::FB", "playerName": "DJ Herman", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 90.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "DJ Herman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Greg Dulcich::TE", "playerName": "Greg Dulcich", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.8, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0046, "baselineUsage": 0.112, "expectedUsage": 0.1145, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 0.5%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Greg Dulcich's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jackson Woodard::LOLB", "playerName": "Jackson Woodard", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 84.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jackson Woodard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jacob Rodriguez::MLB", "playerName": "Jacob Rodriguez", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.7, "high": 93.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jacob Rodriguez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jalen Tolbert::WR4", "playerName": "Jalen Tolbert", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2689, "expectedUsage": 0.2954, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jalen Tolbert's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jarrett Kingston::OL", "playerName": "Jarrett Kingston", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jarrett Kingston's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jason Marshall Jr.::CB1", "playerName": "Jason Marshall Jr.", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jason Marshall Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jaylen Wright::RB", "playerName": "Jaylen Wright", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.528, "expectedUsage": 0.4911, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jaylen Wright's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jaylin Simpson::CB", "playerName": "Jaylin Simpson", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.5, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylin Simpson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jonah Savaiinaea::RG", "playerName": "Jonah Savaiinaea", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 87.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jonah Savaiinaea's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jordan Phillips::DT1", "playerName": "Jordan Phillips", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.2, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Phillips's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Jordyn Brooks::RILB", "playerName": "Jordyn Brooks", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.1, "high": 89.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordyn Brooks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Joshua Uche::EDGE", "playerName": "Joshua Uche", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.6, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Joshua Uche's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Julius Brents::CB", "playerName": "Julius Brents", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Julius Brents's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Julius Wood::CB", "playerName": "Julius Wood", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.5, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Julius Wood's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Justin Joly::TE", "playerName": "Justin Joly", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 54.4, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0046, "baselineUsage": 0.112, "expectedUsage": 0.1145, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 0.5%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Justin Joly's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Kadyn Proctor::LG", "playerName": "Kadyn Proctor", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 88.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kadyn Proctor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Kaytron Allen::RB", "playerName": "Kaytron Allen", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 47.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.528, "expectedUsage": 0.4911, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Kaytron Allen's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Kevin Coleman Jr.::WR", "playerName": "Kevin Coleman Jr.", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2689, "expectedUsage": 0.2954, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kevin Coleman Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Kyle McCord::QB", "playerName": "Kyle McCord", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5258, "expectedUsage": 0.5412, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kyle McCord's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Malik Herring::RDE", "playerName": "Malik Herring", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.7, "high": 76.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malik Herring's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Malik Washington::WR1", "playerName": "Malik Washington", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 76.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2689, "expectedUsage": 0.2954, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Malik Washington's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Malik Willis::QB", "playerName": "Malik Willis", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5258, "expectedUsage": 0.5412, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Malik Willis's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Marcellas Dial Jr.::CB2", "playerName": "Marcellas Dial Jr.", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.6, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Marcellas Dial Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Michael Taaffe::S", "playerName": "Michael Taaffe", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 86.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Michael Taaffe's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Ollie Gordon II::RB", "playerName": "Ollie Gordon II", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.9, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.528, "expectedUsage": 0.4911, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ollie Gordon II's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Patrick Paul::LT", "playerName": "Patrick Paul", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Patrick Paul's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Reese Taylor::CB", "playerName": "Reese Taylor", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.7, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Reese Taylor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Riley Patterson::K", "playerName": "Riley Patterson", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jeff Hafley", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Hafley transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Riley Patterson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Rob Beal Jr.::EDGE", "playerName": "Rob Beal Jr.", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rob Beal Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Ryan Miller::WR", "playerName": "Ryan Miller", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2689, "expectedUsage": 0.2954, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ryan Miller's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Seydou Traore::TE", "playerName": "Seydou Traore", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 51.5, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0046, "baselineUsage": 0.112, "expectedUsage": 0.1145, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 0.5%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Seydou Traore's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Shaka Heyward::LB", "playerName": "Shaka Heyward", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Shaka Heyward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Tucker Addington::LS", "playerName": "Tucker Addington", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.4, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Jeff Hafley", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Jeff Hafley transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tucker Addington's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Will Kacmarek::TE", "playerName": "Will Kacmarek", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Bobby Slowik", "currentCoordinator": "Bobby Slowik", "priorLead": "Mike McDaniel", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0046, "baselineUsage": 0.112, "expectedUsage": 0.1145, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 31, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9963, "reason": "31st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 0.5%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Bobby Slowik transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Will Kacmarek's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Willie Gay Jr.::ROLB", "playerName": "Willie Gay Jr.", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.5, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Willie Gay Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Zach Sieler::DT2", "playerName": "Zach Sieler", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 88.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 88.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 78.4, "high": 98.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zach Sieler's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Zayne Anderson::FS", "playerName": "Zayne Anderson", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zayne Anderson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Miami Dolphins::Zeek Biggers::DT", "playerName": "Zeek Biggers", "teamName": "Miami Dolphins", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.2, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Sean Duggan", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Duggan", "priorLead": "Anthony Weaver", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Duggan transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zeek Biggers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Aaron Jones Sr.::RB", "playerName": "Aaron Jones Sr.", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4732, "expectedUsage": 0.4732, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0053, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Aaron Jones Sr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Andrew DePaola::LS", "playerName": "Andrew DePaola", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.1, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Andrew DePaola's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Andrew Van Ginkel::RDE", "playerName": "Andrew Van Ginkel", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 84.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77.7, "high": 90.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Andrew Van Ginkel's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Blake Brandel::C", "playerName": "Blake Brandel", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 73.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Blake Brandel's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Blake Cashman::RILB", "playerName": "Blake Cashman", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.2, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Blake Cashman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Bo Richter::EDGE", "playerName": "Bo Richter", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.8, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bo Richter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Brett Thorson::P", "playerName": "Brett Thorson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Brett Thorson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Brian O'Neill::RT", "playerName": "Brian O'Neill", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.4, "high": 88.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Brian O'Neill's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Byron Murphy Jr.::CB2", "playerName": "Byron Murphy Jr.", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.6, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Byron Murphy Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Caleb Banks::DT", "playerName": "Caleb Banks", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Caleb Banks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Caleb Tiernan::OL", "playerName": "Caleb Tiernan", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Caleb Tiernan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Carson Wentz::QB", "playerName": "Carson Wentz", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.5, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 69.7, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5414, "expectedUsage": 0.5414, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Carson Wentz's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Charles Demmings::NB", "playerName": "Charles Demmings", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 88.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Charles Demmings's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Chaz Chambliss::LOLB", "playerName": "Chaz Chambliss", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.8, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chaz Chambliss's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Christian Darrisaw::LT", "playerName": "Christian Darrisaw", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.2, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Christian Darrisaw's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Dallas Turner::LDE", "playerName": "Dallas Turner", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 83.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77.2, "high": 90.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dallas Turner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::DeeJay Dallas::RB", "playerName": "DeeJay Dallas", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 52.7, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4732, "expectedUsage": 0.4732, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0053, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "DeeJay Dallas's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Demond Claiborne::RB", "playerName": "Demond Claiborne", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 55.8, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4732, "expectedUsage": 0.4732, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0053, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Demond Claiborne's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Domonique Orange::DT", "playerName": "Domonique Orange", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 75.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Domonique Orange's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Elijah Williams::DT", "playerName": "Elijah Williams", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Eric Wilson::MLB", "playerName": "Eric Wilson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 75.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Eric Wilson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Gavin Bartholomew::TE", "playerName": "Gavin Bartholomew", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1051, "expectedUsage": 0.1051, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Gavin Bartholomew's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Harrison Smith::SS", "playerName": "Harrison Smith", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 61.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 69.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Harrison Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Isaiah Rodgers::CB1", "playerName": "Isaiah Rodgers", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Isaiah Rodgers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Ivan Pace Jr.::ROLB", "playerName": "Ivan Pace Jr.", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.1, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ivan Pace Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Jacob Thomas::S", "playerName": "Jacob Thomas", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.6, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jacob Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Jake Golday::LB", "playerName": "Jake Golday", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jake Golday's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Jakobe Thomas::S", "playerName": "Jakobe Thomas", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 77.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jakobe Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Jalen Redmond::DT1", "playerName": "Jalen Redmond", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 86.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79.9, "high": 93.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jalen Redmond's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::James Pierre::CB", "playerName": "James Pierre", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "James Pierre's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Jauan Jennings::WR3", "playerName": "Jauan Jennings", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 62.6, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3289, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jauan Jennings's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Jay Ward::S", "playerName": "Jay Ward", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jay Ward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Joe Huber::OL", "playerName": "Joe Huber", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 76.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Joe Huber's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Jordan Addison::WR2", "playerName": "Jordan Addison", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3289, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jordan Addison's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Josh Metellus::FS", "playerName": "Josh Metellus", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 84.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.9, "high": 92.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Metellus's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Justin Jefferson::WR1", "playerName": "Justin Jefferson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 68.9, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3289, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Justin Jefferson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Kyle Van Noy::EDGE", "playerName": "Kyle Van Noy", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kyle Van Noy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Kyler Murray::QB", "playerName": "Kyler Murray", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.7, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 71.3, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5414, "expectedUsage": 0.5414, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Kyler Murray's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Levi Drake Rodriguez::DT2", "playerName": "Levi Drake Rodriguez", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 74.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Levi Drake Rodriguez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Max Bredeson::FB", "playerName": "Max Bredeson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Max Bredeson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Max Brosmer::QB", "playerName": "Max Brosmer", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 63.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.8, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 52.7, "high": 74.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5414, "expectedUsage": 0.5414, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Max Brosmer's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Myles Price::WR", "playerName": "Myles Price", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3289, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Myles Price's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Ryan Van Demark::OL", "playerName": "Ryan Van Demark", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 76.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ryan Van Demark's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::T.J. Hockenson::TE", "playerName": "T.J. Hockenson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 68.6, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1051, "expectedUsage": 0.1051, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "T.J. Hockenson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Tai Felton::WR4", "playerName": "Tai Felton", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3289, "expectedUsage": 0.3289, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 2, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "2nd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tai Felton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Theo Jackson::CB", "playerName": "Theo Jackson", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Theo Jackson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Trevor Keegan::LG", "playerName": "Trevor Keegan", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.8, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Trevor Keegan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins::DT", "playerName": "Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 72 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Will Fries::RG", "playerName": "Will Fries", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.5, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": "Wes Phillips", "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Will Fries's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Will Reichard::K", "playerName": "Will Reichard", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.4, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kevin O'Connell", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Will Reichard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Minnesota Vikings::Zemaiah Vaughn::CB", "playerName": "Zemaiah Vaughn", "teamName": "Minnesota Vikings", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.4, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Flores", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Flores", "priorLead": "Brian Flores", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zemaiah Vaughn's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Alijah Vera-Tucker::LG", "playerName": "Alijah Vera-Tucker", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Alijah Vera-Tucker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Andy Borregales::K", "playerName": "Andy Borregales", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.2, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike Vrabel", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Vrabel", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Andy Borregales's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Behren Morton::QB", "playerName": "Behren Morton", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.8, "high": 75.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.504, "expectedUsage": 0.504, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Behren Morton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Ben Brown::OL", "playerName": "Ben Brown", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.8, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ben Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Bryce Baringer::P", "playerName": "Bryce Baringer", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "WITHHELD", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": null, "contextDelta": null, "planningRange": null, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "UNAVAILABLE", "label": "Reserve list", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Reserve list in the current roster snapshot; the player is excluded from active Week 1 value." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike Vrabel", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Vrabel", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Reserve list; the current production forecast is withheld without changing the player's ability grade." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Caleb Lomu::OL", "playerName": "Caleb Lomu", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Caleb Lomu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Cameron Latu::TE", "playerName": "Cameron Latu", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1155, "expectedUsage": 0.1155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Cameron Latu's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Carlton Davis III::CB1", "playerName": "Carlton Davis III", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.9, "high": 87.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Carlton Davis III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Channing Canada::CB", "playerName": "Channing Canada", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Channing Canada's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Charles Woods::CB", "playerName": "Charles Woods", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.5, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Charles Woods's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Christian Barmore::DT2", "playerName": "Christian Barmore", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67, "high": 85.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Barmore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Christian Elliss::MLB", "playerName": "Christian Elliss", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Elliss's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Christian Gonzalez::CB2", "playerName": "Christian Gonzalez", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.8, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Gonzalez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Corey Kiner::RB", "playerName": "Corey Kiner", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 64.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.6, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.4, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4558, "expectedUsage": 0.4558, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9981, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Corey Kiner's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Cory Durden::DT", "playerName": "Cory Durden", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.5, "high": 70.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cory Durden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Craig Woodson::SS", "playerName": "Craig Woodson", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Craig Woodson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Dametrious Crownover::RG", "playerName": "Dametrious Crownover", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.3, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dametrious Crownover's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::DaQuan Jones::DT", "playerName": "DaQuan Jones", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DaQuan Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Darius Muasau::LB", "playerName": "Darius Muasau", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Darius Muasau's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::DeMario Douglas::WR3", "playerName": "DeMario Douglas", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2841, "expectedUsage": 0.2841, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "DeMario Douglas's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Drake Maye::QB", "playerName": "Drake Maye", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 81, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 74.2, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.504, "expectedUsage": 0.504, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Drake Maye's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Dre'Mont Jones::LDE", "playerName": "Dre'Mont Jones", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.9, "high": 86.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dre'Mont Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Efton Chism III::WR", "playerName": "Efton Chism III", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.7, "high": 78.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2841, "expectedUsage": 0.2841, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Efton Chism III's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Eli Raridon::TE", "playerName": "Eli Raridon", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57.9, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1155, "expectedUsage": 0.1155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Eli Raridon's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Elijah Ponder::RDE", "playerName": "Elijah Ponder", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.4, "high": 89.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Ponder's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Erick Hunter::LOLB", "playerName": "Erick Hunter", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Erick Hunter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Gabe Jacas::EDGE", "playerName": "Gabe Jacas", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Gabe Jacas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Hunter Henry::TE", "playerName": "Hunter Henry", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 70.2, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1155, "expectedUsage": 0.1155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Hunter Henry's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Jared Wilson::C", "playerName": "Jared Wilson", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jared Wilson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Jaylen Reed::S", "playerName": "Jaylen Reed", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylen Reed's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Joshua Farmer::DT", "playerName": "Joshua Farmer", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 76 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Joshua Farmer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Julian Ashby::LS", "playerName": "Julian Ashby", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.1, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike Vrabel", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Vrabel", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Julian Ashby's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Karon Prunty::CB", "playerName": "Karon Prunty", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Karon Prunty's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Kevin Byard::FS", "playerName": "Kevin Byard", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.9, "high": 90.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kevin Byard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Kyle Williams::WR1", "playerName": "Kyle Williams", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2841, "expectedUsage": 0.2841, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Kyle Williams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Leonard Taylor III::DT", "playerName": "Leonard Taylor III", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Leonard Taylor III's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Mack Hollins::WR4", "playerName": "Mack Hollins", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.9, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2841, "expectedUsage": 0.2841, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Mack Hollins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Marcus Jones::NB", "playerName": "Marcus Jones", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Marcus Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Matt Pryor::OL", "playerName": "Matt Pryor", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Matt Pryor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Mike Brown::S", "playerName": "Mike Brown", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.6, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mike Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Milton Williams::DT1", "playerName": "Milton Williams", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.7, "high": 88.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Milton Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Mitch Wishnowsky::P", "playerName": "Mitch Wishnowsky", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike Vrabel", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Vrabel", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Mitch Wishnowsky's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Morgan Moses::RT", "playerName": "Morgan Moses", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Morgan Moses's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Namdi Obiazor::ROLB", "playerName": "Namdi Obiazor", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Namdi Obiazor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Reggie Gilliam::FB", "playerName": "Reggie Gilliam", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 87.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Reggie Gilliam's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Rhamondre Stevenson::RB", "playerName": "Rhamondre Stevenson", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.2, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4558, "expectedUsage": 0.4558, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9981, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Rhamondre Stevenson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Robert Spillane::RILB", "playerName": "Robert Spillane", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.6, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Zak Kuhr", "currentCoordinator": "Zak Kuhr", "priorLead": "Terrell Williams", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zak Kuhr transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Robert Spillane's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Romeo Doubs::WR2", "playerName": "Romeo Doubs", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2841, "expectedUsage": 0.2841, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Romeo Doubs's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Tanner Arkin::TE", "playerName": "Tanner Arkin", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1155, "expectedUsage": 0.1155, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tanner Arkin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Tommy DeVito::QB", "playerName": "Tommy DeVito", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 74.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.504, "expectedUsage": 0.504, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 27, "label": "Difficult", "multiplier": 0.9972, "reason": "27th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tommy DeVito's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::TreVeyon Henderson::RB", "playerName": "TreVeyon Henderson", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 68.2, "high": 87.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4558, "expectedUsage": 0.4558, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 22, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9981, "reason": "22nd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "TreVeyon Henderson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Walter Rouse::OL", "playerName": "Walter Rouse", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 78.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Walter Rouse's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New England Patriots::Will Campbell::LT", "playerName": "Will Campbell", "teamName": "New England Patriots", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.1, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Josh McDaniels", "currentCoordinator": "Josh McDaniels", "priorLead": "Josh McDaniels", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Will Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Alvin Kamara::RB", "playerName": "Alvin Kamara", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3674, "expectedUsage": 0.3674, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0051, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Alvin Kamara's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Anfernee Jennings::EDGE", "playerName": "Anfernee Jennings", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.9, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Anfernee Jennings's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Asim Richards::LT", "playerName": "Asim Richards", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.2, "high": 75 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Asim Richards's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Barion Brown::WR4", "playerName": "Barion Brown", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 57.4, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3353, "expectedUsage": 0.3353, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Barion Brown's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Bryce Lance::WR3", "playerName": "Bryce Lance", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3353, "expectedUsage": 0.3353, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Bryce Lance's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Cal Adomitis::LS", "playerName": "Cal Adomitis", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Cal Adomitis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Cameron Jordan::RDE", "playerName": "Cameron Jordan", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.4, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cameron Jordan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Carl Granderson::EDGE", "playerName": "Carl Granderson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Carl Granderson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Cesar Ruiz::RG", "playerName": "Cesar Ruiz", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Cesar Ruiz's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Chase Young::LDE", "playerName": "Chase Young", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 83.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.9, "high": 90.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chase Young's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Chris Olave::WR1", "playerName": "Chris Olave", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 81.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.6, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 74.1, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3353, "expectedUsage": 0.3353, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Chris Olave's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Chris Rumph II::LB", "playerName": "Chris Rumph II", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.1, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chris Rumph II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Christen Miller::DT", "playerName": "Christen Miller", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.1, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christen Miller's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::CJ Donaldson::RB", "playerName": "CJ Donaldson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 51.4, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3674, "expectedUsage": 0.3674, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0051, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "CJ Donaldson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Colby Wooden::EDGE", "playerName": "Colby Wooden", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 74.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Colby Wooden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Daniel Carlson::K", "playerName": "Daniel Carlson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Daniel Carlson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Danny Stutsman::ROLB", "playerName": "Danny Stutsman", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.2, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Danny Stutsman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::David Edwards::LG", "playerName": "David Edwards", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "David Edwards's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Davon Godchaux::DT", "playerName": "Davon Godchaux", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Davon Godchaux's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Decamerion Richardson::CB", "playerName": "Decamerion Richardson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Decamerion Richardson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Devaughn Vele::WR2", "playerName": "Devaughn Vele", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 69.1, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3353, "expectedUsage": 0.3353, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Devaughn Vele's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Erik McCoy::C", "playerName": "Erik McCoy", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.2, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Erik McCoy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Isaiah Stalbird::LOLB", "playerName": "Isaiah Stalbird", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 84.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Isaiah Stalbird's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Jayden Price::CB", "playerName": "Jayden Price", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jayden Price's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Jeremiah Wright::OL", "playerName": "Jeremiah Wright", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.7, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jeremiah Wright's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::John Ridgeway::DT", "playerName": "John Ridgeway", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.9, "high": 75.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "John Ridgeway's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Jonas Sanker::NB", "playerName": "Jonas Sanker", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 75.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonas Sanker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Jordan Howden::S", "playerName": "Jordan Howden", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 78.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Howden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Julian Blackmon::FS", "playerName": "Julian Blackmon", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.7, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Julian Blackmon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Justin Reid::SS", "playerName": "Justin Reid", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.9, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Justin Reid's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Juwan Johnson::TE", "playerName": "Juwan Johnson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 80, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.4, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 72.9, "high": 87.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1384, "expectedUsage": 0.1384, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Juwan Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Kaden Elliss::MLB", "playerName": "Kaden Elliss", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.3, "high": 88.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kaden Elliss's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Kendre Miller::RB", "playerName": "Kendre Miller", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3674, "expectedUsage": 0.3674, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0051, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Kendre Miller's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Kevin Austin Jr.::WR", "playerName": "Kevin Austin Jr.", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3353, "expectedUsage": 0.3353, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Kevin Austin Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Khristian Boyd::DT", "playerName": "Khristian Boyd", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Khristian Boyd's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Kool-Aid McKinstry::CB1", "playerName": "Kool-Aid McKinstry", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.1, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kool-Aid McKinstry's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Martin Emerson::CB", "playerName": "Martin Emerson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.2, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Martin Emerson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Mason Murphy::OL", "playerName": "Mason Murphy", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Mason Murphy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Michael Reid::S", "playerName": "Michael Reid", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.6, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Michael Reid's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Nathan Shepherd::DT1", "playerName": "Nathan Shepherd", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.1, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nathan Shepherd's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Noah Fant::FB", "playerName": "Noah Fant", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61.6, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1384, "expectedUsage": 0.1384, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Noah Fant's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Oscar Delp::TE", "playerName": "Oscar Delp", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1384, "expectedUsage": 0.1384, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Oscar Delp's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Pete Werner::RILB", "playerName": "Pete Werner", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.7, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Pete Werner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Quincy Riley::CB2", "playerName": "Quincy Riley", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Quincy Riley's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Ryan Wright::P", "playerName": "Ryan Wright", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.9, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Ryan Wright's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Spencer Rattler::QB", "playerName": "Spencer Rattler", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 63.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.4, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 70.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.576, "expectedUsage": 0.576, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Spencer Rattler's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Taliese Fuaga::RT", "playerName": "Taliese Fuaga", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.9, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Taliese Fuaga's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Treyton Welch::TE", "playerName": "Treyton Welch", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1384, "expectedUsage": 0.1384, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Treyton Welch's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Tyler Shough::QB", "playerName": "Tyler Shough", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 68, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.576, "expectedUsage": 0.576, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tyler Shough's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Tyree Wilson::EDGE", "playerName": "Tyree Wilson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 73.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyree Wilson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Vernon Broughton::DT2", "playerName": "Vernon Broughton", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 61.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.2, "high": 69.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brandon Staley", "currentCoordinator": "Brandon Staley", "priorLead": "Brandon Staley", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Vernon Broughton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Will Sherman::OL", "playerName": "Will Sherman", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Will Sherman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New Orleans Saints::Zach Wilson::QB", "playerName": "Zach Wilson", "teamName": "New Orleans Saints", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kellen Moore", "currentCoordinator": "Doug Nussmeier", "priorLead": "Kellen Moore", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.576, "expectedUsage": 0.576, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 3, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0048, "reason": "3rd-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Zach Wilson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Aaron Stinnie::OL", "playerName": "Aaron Stinnie", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.3, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Aaron Stinnie's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Abdul Carter::RDE", "playerName": "Abdul Carter", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.2, "high": 93.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Abdul Carter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Andrew Thomas::LT", "playerName": "Andrew Thomas", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.4, "high": 90.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Andrew Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Andru Phillips::CB", "playerName": "Andru Phillips", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Andru Phillips's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Ar'Darius Washington::S", "playerName": "Ar'Darius Washington", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 87.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ar'Darius Washington's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Arvell Reese::LOLB", "playerName": "Arvell Reese", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71, "high": 92.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Arvell Reese's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Basil Okoye::DT", "playerName": "Basil Okoye", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.8, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Basil Okoye's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Ben Mann::LS", "playerName": "Ben Mann", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.4, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "John Harbaugh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Daboll", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "John Harbaugh transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ben Mann's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Bobby Jamison-Travis::DT", "playerName": "Bobby Jamison-Travis", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.3, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Bobby Jamison-Travis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Bryan Hudson::OL", "playerName": "Bryan Hudson", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Bryan Hudson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Cam Skattebo::RB", "playerName": "Cam Skattebo", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4773, "expectedUsage": 0.4678, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cam Skattebo's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Charlie Jones::WR4", "playerName": "Charlie Jones", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 85.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2903, "expectedUsage": 0.2948, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Charlie Jones's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Chauncey Golston::DT2", "playerName": "Chauncey Golston", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chauncey Golston's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Chris Manhertz::TE", "playerName": "Chris Manhertz", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 1.8, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0251, "baselineUsage": 0.0984, "expectedUsage": 0.1114, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 2.5%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chris Manhertz's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Colton Hood::CB", "playerName": "Colton Hood", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 76.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Colton Hood's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Darius Alexander::DT", "playerName": "Darius Alexander", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 75 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Darius Alexander's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Darnell Mooney::WR3", "playerName": "Darnell Mooney", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2903, "expectedUsage": 0.2948, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Darnell Mooney's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Deonte Banks::CB1", "playerName": "Deonte Banks", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.2, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Deonte Banks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Devin Singletary::RB", "playerName": "Devin Singletary", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.5, "high": 83.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4773, "expectedUsage": 0.4678, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Devin Singletary's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::DJ Reader::DT", "playerName": "DJ Reader", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 61.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.7, "high": 71.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DJ Reader's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Dominic Zvada::K", "playerName": "Dominic Zvada", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.7, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "John Harbaugh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Daboll", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "John Harbaugh transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dominic Zvada's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Elijah Campbell::NB", "playerName": "Elijah Campbell", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Francis Mauigoa::RG", "playerName": "Francis Mauigoa", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 88.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Francis Mauigoa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Greg Newsome II::CB2", "playerName": "Greg Newsome II", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Greg Newsome II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Isaiah Likely::TE", "playerName": "Isaiah Likely", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0251, "baselineUsage": 0.0984, "expectedUsage": 0.1114, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 2.5%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Isaiah Likely's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::J.C. Davis::OL", "playerName": "J.C. Davis", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.5, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "J.C. Davis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::J.J. McCarthy::QB", "playerName": "J.J. McCarthy", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 60.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 61, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 48.9, "high": 73.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5072, "expectedUsage": 0.5238, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "J.J. McCarthy's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jack Kelly::MLB", "playerName": "Jack Kelly", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Kelly's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jake Haener::QB", "playerName": "Jake Haener", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.1, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5072, "expectedUsage": 0.5238, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Jake Haener's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jameis Winston::QB", "playerName": "Jameis Winston", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5072, "expectedUsage": 0.5238, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jameis Winston's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jason Pinnock::S", "playerName": "Jason Pinnock", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jason Pinnock's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jermaine Eluemunor::RT", "playerName": "Jermaine Eluemunor", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jermaine Eluemunor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jevon Holland::FS", "playerName": "Jevon Holland", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jevon Holland's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jihad Ward::EDGE", "playerName": "Jihad Ward", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jihad Ward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::John Michael Schmitz Jr.::C", "playerName": "John Michael Schmitz Jr.", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "John Michael Schmitz Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jon Runyan::LG", "playerName": "Jon Runyan", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jon Runyan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Jordan Stout::P", "playerName": "Jordan Stout", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.1, "high": 91.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "John Harbaugh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Daboll", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "John Harbaugh transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jordan Stout's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Kayvon Thibodeaux::LDE", "playerName": "Kayvon Thibodeaux", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.4, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kayvon Thibodeaux's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Malachi Fields::WR2", "playerName": "Malachi Fields", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2903, "expectedUsage": 0.2948, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Malachi Fields's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Malik Nabers::WR1", "playerName": "Malik Nabers", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2903, "expectedUsage": 0.2948, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Malik Nabers's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Marcus Mbow::OL", "playerName": "Marcus Mbow", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Marcus Mbow's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Micah McFadden::ROLB", "playerName": "Micah McFadden", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Micah McFadden's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Najee Harris::RB", "playerName": "Najee Harris", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.9, "high": 86.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4773, "expectedUsage": 0.4678, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Najee Harris's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Nic Jones::CB", "playerName": "Nic Jones", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nic Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Nikko Reed::CB", "playerName": "Nikko Reed", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.6, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nikko Reed's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Patrick Ricard::FB", "playerName": "Patrick Ricard", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 91.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Patrick Ricard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Shelby Harris::DT1", "playerName": "Shelby Harris", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Shelby Harris's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Theo Johnson::TE", "playerName": "Theo Johnson", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 1.8, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0251, "baselineUsage": 0.0984, "expectedUsage": 0.1114, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 2.5%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Theo Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Thomas Fidone II::TE", "playerName": "Thomas Fidone II", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": 1.9, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0251, "baselineUsage": 0.0984, "expectedUsage": 0.1114, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 11, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0018, "reason": "11th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 2.5%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Thomas Fidone II's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Tremaine Edmunds::RILB", "playerName": "Tremaine Edmunds", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.7, "high": 91.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tremaine Edmunds's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Tyler Nubin::SS", "playerName": "Tyler Nubin", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyler Nubin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Tyrone Tracy Jr.::RB", "playerName": "Tyrone Tracy Jr.", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 84.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Matt Nagy", "currentCoordinator": "Matt Nagy", "priorLead": "Mike Kafka", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4773, "expectedUsage": 0.4678, "profileConfidence": "LOW", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 7, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0021, "reason": "7th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Matt Nagy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Giants::Zaire Barnes::LB", "playerName": "Zaire Barnes", "teamName": "New York Giants", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Dennard Wilson", "currentCoordinator": "Dennard Wilson", "priorLead": "Shane Bowen", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Dennard Wilson transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zaire Barnes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Adonai Mitchell::WR2", "playerName": "Adonai Mitchell", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.3, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 75 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2853, "expectedUsage": 0.2991, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Adonai Mitchell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Andre Cisco::S", "playerName": "Andre Cisco", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Andre Cisco's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Andrew Beck::FB", "playerName": "Andrew Beck", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Andrew Beck's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Armand Membou::RT", "playerName": "Armand Membou", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 86.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Armand Membou's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Austin McNamara::P", "playerName": "Austin McNamara", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Aaron Glenn", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Aaron Glenn", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Austin McNamara's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Azareye'h Thomas::CB1", "playerName": "Azareye'h Thomas", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 83.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Azareye'h Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Braelon Allen::RB", "playerName": "Braelon Allen", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.7, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4389, "expectedUsage": 0.4562, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9988, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Braelon Allen's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Brandon Stephens::CB2", "playerName": "Brandon Stephens", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Brandon Stephens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Breece Hall::RB", "playerName": "Breece Hall", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4389, "expectedUsage": 0.4562, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9988, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Breece Hall's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Cade Klubnik::QB", "playerName": "Cade Klubnik", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.52, "expectedUsage": 0.5368, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cade Klubnik's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Chukwuma Okorafor::LT", "playerName": "Chukwuma Okorafor", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Chukwuma Okorafor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::D'Angelo Ponds::CB", "playerName": "D'Angelo Ponds", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "D'Angelo Ponds's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Dane Belton::SS", "playerName": "Dane Belton", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73, "high": 91.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dane Belton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Darrell Jackson Jr.::DT", "playerName": "Darrell Jackson Jr.", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Darrell Jackson Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::David Bailey::ROLB", "playerName": "David Bailey", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 85.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 76.8, "high": 95 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "David Bailey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Demario Davis::RDE", "playerName": "Demario Davis", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.2, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Demario Davis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Dylan Parham::LG", "playerName": "Dylan Parham", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dylan Parham's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Francisco Mauigoa::LB", "playerName": "Francisco Mauigoa", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Francisco Mauigoa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Garrett Wilson::WR1", "playerName": "Garrett Wilson", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 66.7, "high": 85.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2853, "expectedUsage": 0.2991, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Garrett Wilson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Geno Smith::QB", "playerName": "Geno Smith", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 65.9, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.52, "expectedUsage": 0.5368, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Geno Smith's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Harrison Phillips::DT2", "playerName": "Harrison Phillips", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.5, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Harrison Phillips's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Isaiah Davis::RB", "playerName": "Isaiah Davis", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4389, "expectedUsage": 0.4562, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9988, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Isaiah Davis's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Isaiah Williams::WR4", "playerName": "Isaiah Williams", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2853, "expectedUsage": 0.2991, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Isaiah Williams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jack Heflin::DT", "playerName": "Jack Heflin", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.2, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Heflin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jamaal Pritchett::WR", "playerName": "Jamaal Pritchett", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 51.4, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2853, "expectedUsage": 0.2991, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Jamaal Pritchett's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jamien Sherwood::MLB", "playerName": "Jamien Sherwood", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.2, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jamien Sherwood's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jarvis Brownlee Jr.::NB", "playerName": "Jarvis Brownlee Jr.", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.2, "high": 75.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jarvis Brownlee Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jason Sanders::K", "playerName": "Jason Sanders", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Aaron Glenn", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Aaron Glenn", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Jason Sanders's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jelani Woods::TE", "playerName": "Jelani Woods", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9977, "baselineUsage": 0.1116, "expectedUsage": 0.1103, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 0.2%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jelani Woods's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jeremy Ruckert::TE", "playerName": "Jeremy Ruckert", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9977, "baselineUsage": 0.1116, "expectedUsage": 0.1103, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 0.2%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jeremy Ruckert's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Joe Tippmann::RG", "playerName": "Joe Tippmann", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Joe Tippmann's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jordan Meredith::OL", "playerName": "Jordan Meredith", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jordan Meredith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Joseph Ossai::LDE", "playerName": "Joseph Ossai", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Joseph Ossai's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Josh Myers::C", "playerName": "Josh Myers", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.6, "high": 88.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Josh Myers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Jowon Briggs::DT", "playerName": "Jowon Briggs", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jowon Briggs's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Kene Nwangwu::RB", "playerName": "Kene Nwangwu", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 49.3, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4389, "expectedUsage": 0.4562, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9988, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Kene Nwangwu's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Kenyon Sadiq::TE", "playerName": "Kenyon Sadiq", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 90 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9977, "baselineUsage": 0.1116, "expectedUsage": 0.1103, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 0.2%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kenyon Sadiq's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Kingsley Enagbare::EDGE", "playerName": "Kingsley Enagbare", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 77.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kingsley Enagbare's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Kohl Levao::OL", "playerName": "Kohl Levao", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kohl Levao's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Malachi Moore::S", "playerName": "Malachi Moore", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 82.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malachi Moore's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Malik McClain::WR3", "playerName": "Malik McClain", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2853, "expectedUsage": 0.2991, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Malik McClain's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Mason Taylor::TE", "playerName": "Mason Taylor", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": -0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9977, "baselineUsage": 0.1116, "expectedUsage": 0.1103, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 21, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "21st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 0.2%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Mason Taylor's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Max Mitchell::OL", "playerName": "Max Mitchell", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.6, "high": 73.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Max Mitchell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Minkah Fitzpatrick::FS", "playerName": "Minkah Fitzpatrick", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70, "high": 89.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Minkah Fitzpatrick's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Nahshon Wright::CB", "playerName": "Nahshon Wright", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.3, "high": 88.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nahshon Wright's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Nate Lynn::EDGE", "playerName": "Nate Lynn", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nate Lynn's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Olumuyiwa Fashanu::OL", "playerName": "Olumuyiwa Fashanu", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.1, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Frank Reich", "currentCoordinator": "Frank Reich", "priorLead": "Tanner Engstrand", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Frank Reich transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Olumuyiwa Fashanu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Qwan'tez Stiggers::CB", "playerName": "Qwan'tez Stiggers", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Qwan'tez Stiggers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::T'Vondre Sweat::DT1", "playerName": "T'Vondre Sweat", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.3, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "T'Vondre Sweat's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Thomas Hennessy::LS", "playerName": "Thomas Hennessy", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Aaron Glenn", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Aaron Glenn", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Thomas Hennessy's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Trevin Wallace::LOLB", "playerName": "Trevin Wallace", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Trevin Wallace's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Troy Reeder::RILB", "playerName": "Troy Reeder", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Troy Reeder's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "New York Jets::Will McDonald IV::EDGE", "playerName": "Will McDonald IV", "teamName": "New York Jets", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.7, "high": 74.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Brian Duker", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Duker", "priorLead": "Steve Wilks", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Duker transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Will McDonald IV's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::A.J. Epenesa::EDGE", "playerName": "A.J. Epenesa", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 74.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "A.J. Epenesa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Andrew Mukuba::FS", "playerName": "Andrew Mukuba", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Andrew Mukuba's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Arnold Ebiketie::EDGE", "playerName": "Arnold Ebiketie", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 77.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Arnold Ebiketie's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Braden Mann::P", "playerName": "Braden Mann", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.6, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Nick Sirianni", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Nick Sirianni", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Braden Mann's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Britain Covey::WR", "playerName": "Britain Covey", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2985, "expectedUsage": 0.2985, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Britain Covey's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Byron Young::DT", "playerName": "Byron Young", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.4, "high": 90.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Byron Young's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Carson Steele::RB", "playerName": "Carson Steele", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 88.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4441, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0054, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Carson Steele's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Cole Payton::QB", "playerName": "Cole Payton", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5097, "expectedUsage": 0.5097, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cole Payton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Cooper DeJean::NB", "playerName": "Cooper DeJean", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 80.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.9, "high": 88.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cooper DeJean's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Dallas Goedert::TE", "playerName": "Dallas Goedert", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.6, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 69.1, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1067, "expectedUsage": 0.1067, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dallas Goedert's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Dameon Pierce::RB", "playerName": "Dameon Pierce", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 50.6, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4441, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0054, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Dameon Pierce's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Darius Cooper::WR4", "playerName": "Darius Cooper", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 55.4, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2985, "expectedUsage": 0.2985, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Darius Cooper's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::DeVonta Smith::WR1", "playerName": "DeVonta Smith", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.3, "contextDelta": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 71.2, "high": 89.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2985, "expectedUsage": 0.2985, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "DeVonta Smith's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Dontayvion Wicks::WR2", "playerName": "Dontayvion Wicks", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2985, "expectedUsage": 0.2985, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dontayvion Wicks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Drew Kendall::OL", "playerName": "Drew Kendall", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Drew Kendall's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::E.J. Jenkins::TE", "playerName": "E.J. Jenkins", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1067, "expectedUsage": 0.1067, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "E.J. Jenkins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Elijah Moore::WR", "playerName": "Elijah Moore", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2985, "expectedUsage": 0.2985, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Elijah Moore's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Fred Johnson::OL", "playerName": "Fred Johnson", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Fred Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jake Elliott::K", "playerName": "Jake Elliott", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Nick Sirianni", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Nick Sirianni", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jake Elliott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jake Majors::OL", "playerName": "Jake Majors", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.6, "high": 82.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jake Majors's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jalen Carter::DT2", "playerName": "Jalen Carter", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 86.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79.1, "high": 93.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jalen Carter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jalen Hurts::QB", "playerName": "Jalen Hurts", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 82, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.5, "contextDelta": 0.5, "planningRange": { "low": 75, "high": 90 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5097, "expectedUsage": 0.5097, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jalen Hurts's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jalyx Hunt::LDE", "playerName": "Jalyx Hunt", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.7, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jalyx Hunt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jeremiah Trotter Jr.::LOLB", "playerName": "Jeremiah Trotter Jr.", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.1, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jeremiah Trotter Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jihaad Campbell::RILB", "playerName": "Jihaad Campbell", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.2, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jihaad Campbell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Johnny Mundt::FB", "playerName": "Johnny Mundt", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1067, "expectedUsage": 0.1067, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Johnny Mundt's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jonathan Greenard::EDGE", "playerName": "Jonathan Greenard", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 83.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.1, "high": 92.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonathan Greenard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jonathan Jones::CB", "playerName": "Jonathan Jones", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jonathan Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jordan Davis::DT1", "playerName": "Jordan Davis", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.7, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Davis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Jordan Mailata::LT", "playerName": "Jordan Mailata", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.5, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jordan Mailata's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Kelee Ringo::CB", "playerName": "Kelee Ringo", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kelee Ringo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Kenny Moore II::CB", "playerName": "Kenny Moore II", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kenny Moore II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Lane Johnson::RT", "playerName": "Lane Johnson", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 87.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 87.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77.3, "high": 98.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Lane Johnson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Mac McWilliams::CB", "playerName": "Mac McWilliams", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.8, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mac McWilliams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Makai Lemon::WR3", "playerName": "Makai Lemon", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 63.8, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2985, "expectedUsage": 0.2985, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Makai Lemon's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Marcus Epps::SS", "playerName": "Marcus Epps", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 74.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Marcus Epps's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Markel Bell::LG", "playerName": "Markel Bell", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Markel Bell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Marquise Brown::WR", "playerName": "Marquise Brown", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 81.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2985, "expectedUsage": 0.2985, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Marquise Brown's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Micah Morris::C", "playerName": "Micah Morris", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Micah Morris's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Michael Carter II::CB", "playerName": "Michael Carter II", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Michael Carter II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Moro Ojomo::DT", "playerName": "Moro Ojomo", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.3, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Moro Ojomo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Nolan Smith Jr.::RDE", "playerName": "Nolan Smith Jr.", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nolan Smith Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Quinyon Mitchell::CB2", "playerName": "Quinyon Mitchell", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.9, "high": 90.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Quinyon Mitchell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Riq Woolen::CB1", "playerName": "Riq Woolen", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 81.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 73.9, "high": 89.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Riq Woolen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Rocco Underwood::LS", "playerName": "Rocco Underwood", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Nick Sirianni", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Nick Sirianni", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Rocco Underwood's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Saquon Barkley::RB", "playerName": "Saquon Barkley", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 85.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4441, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0054, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Saquon Barkley's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Smael Mondon Jr.::ROLB", "playerName": "Smael Mondon Jr.", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Smael Mondon Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Tanner McKee::QB", "playerName": "Tanner McKee", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5097, "expectedUsage": 0.5097, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0057, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.6% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tanner McKee's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Ty Robinson::DT", "playerName": "Ty Robinson", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.2, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ty Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Tyler Steen::RG", "playerName": "Tyler Steen", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.2, "high": 77.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tyler Steen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Will Shipley::RB", "playerName": "Will Shipley", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0.4, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4441, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 1, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0054, "reason": "1st-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.5% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Will Shipley's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Willie Lampkin::OL", "playerName": "Willie Lampkin", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.7, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Sean Mannion", "currentCoordinator": "Sean Mannion", "priorLead": "Kevin Patullo", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Sean Mannion transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Willie Lampkin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Philadelphia Eagles::Zack Baun::MLB", "playerName": "Zack Baun", "teamName": "Philadelphia Eagles", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.4, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Vic Fangio", "currentCoordinator": "Vic Fangio", "priorLead": "Vic Fangio", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zack Baun's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Aaron Rodgers::QB", "playerName": "Aaron Rodgers", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 69.2, "high": 87.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5747, "expectedUsage": 0.5698, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Aaron Rodgers's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Alex Highsmith::LDE", "playerName": "Alex Highsmith", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.3, "high": 93.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alex Highsmith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Asante Samuel Jr.::CB1", "playerName": "Asante Samuel Jr.", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 84.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Asante Samuel Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Ben Skowronek::WR", "playerName": "Ben Skowronek", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2435, "expectedUsage": 0.2873, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ben Skowronek's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Brandin Echols::CB", "playerName": "Brandin Echols", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.2, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Brandin Echols's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Brock Hoffman::OL", "playerName": "Brock Hoffman", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.9, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Brock Hoffman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Cameron Heyward::DT2", "playerName": "Cameron Heyward", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 89.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 89.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 79.5, "high": 99.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cameron Heyward's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Cameron Johnston::P", "playerName": "Cameron Johnston", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Tomlin", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cameron Johnston's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Carson Bruener::LOLB", "playerName": "Carson Bruener", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.2, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Carson Bruener's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Chris Boswell::K", "playerName": "Chris Boswell", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.6, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Tomlin", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chris Boswell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Christian Kuntz::LS", "playerName": "Christian Kuntz", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.5, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Tomlin", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Christian Kuntz's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Cole Holcomb::ROLB", "playerName": "Cole Holcomb", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.8, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cole Holcomb's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Darnell Washington::TE", "playerName": "Darnell Washington", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": -1.8, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9774, "baselineUsage": 0.1578, "expectedUsage": 0.1407, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 2.3%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Darnell Washington's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Daylen Everette::CB", "playerName": "Daylen Everette", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.4, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Daylen Everette's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::DK Metcalf::WR1", "playerName": "DK Metcalf", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.7, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2435, "expectedUsage": 0.2873, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "DK Metcalf's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Drew Allar::QB", "playerName": "Drew Allar", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.9, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5747, "expectedUsage": 0.5698, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Drew Allar's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Dylan Cook::RT", "playerName": "Dylan Cook", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.7, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dylan Cook's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Eli Heidenreich::RB", "playerName": "Eli Heidenreich", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 52.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5068, "expectedUsage": 0.4729, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Eli Heidenreich's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Gabe Rubio::EDGE", "playerName": "Gabe Rubio", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Gabe Rubio's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Germie Bernard::WR4", "playerName": "Germie Bernard", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.4, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2435, "expectedUsage": 0.2873, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Germie Bernard's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Jack Sawyer::EDGE", "playerName": "Jack Sawyer", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 84.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Sawyer's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Jalen Ramsey::NB", "playerName": "Jalen Ramsey", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.7, "high": 89.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jalen Ramsey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Jamel Dean::CB2", "playerName": "Jamel Dean", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.5, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jamel Dean's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Jaquan Brisker::FS", "playerName": "Jaquan Brisker", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 71.1, "high": 92.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaquan Brisker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Jaylen Warren::RB", "playerName": "Jaylen Warren", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 86.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5068, "expectedUsage": 0.4729, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jaylen Warren's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Kaden Wetjen::WR", "playerName": "Kaden Wetjen", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 50.9, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2435, "expectedUsage": 0.2873, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kaden Wetjen's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Keeanu Benton::DT1", "playerName": "Keeanu Benton", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.1, "high": 87.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keeanu Benton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Kevin Jobity Jr.::DT", "playerName": "Kevin Jobity Jr.", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kevin Jobity Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Mason McCormick::LG", "playerName": "Mason McCormick", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.8, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Mason McCormick's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Mason Rudolph::QB", "playerName": "Mason Rudolph", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5747, "expectedUsage": 0.5698, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Mason Rudolph's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Max Iheanachor::OL", "playerName": "Max Iheanachor", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Max Iheanachor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Michael Pittman Jr.::WR2", "playerName": "Michael Pittman Jr.", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2435, "expectedUsage": 0.2873, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Michael Pittman Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Nick Herbig::EDGE", "playerName": "Nick Herbig", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.4, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Herbig's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Pat Freiermuth::TE", "playerName": "Pat Freiermuth", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": -1.9, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 85.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9774, "baselineUsage": 0.1578, "expectedUsage": 0.1407, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 2.3%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Pat Freiermuth's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Patrick Queen::RILB", "playerName": "Patrick Queen", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.5, "high": 88.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Patrick Queen's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Payton Wilson::MLB", "playerName": "Payton Wilson", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.2, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Payton Wilson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Rayshawn Jenkins::SS", "playerName": "Rayshawn Jenkins", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.1, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rayshawn Jenkins's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Rico Dowdle::RB", "playerName": "Rico Dowdle", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5068, "expectedUsage": 0.4729, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rico Dowdle's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Riley Nowakowski::FB", "playerName": "Riley Nowakowski", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 90 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Riley Nowakowski's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Robert Spears-Jennings::S", "playerName": "Robert Spears-Jennings", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Robert Spears-Jennings's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Robert Tonyan::TE", "playerName": "Robert Tonyan", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.5, "contextDelta": -1.6, "planningRange": { "low": 50, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9774, "baselineUsage": 0.1578, "expectedUsage": 0.1407, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 2.3%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Robert Tonyan's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Roman Wilson::WR3", "playerName": "Roman Wilson", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59.3, "high": 81.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2435, "expectedUsage": 0.2873, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Roman Wilson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Ryan McCollum::OL", "playerName": "Ryan McCollum", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ryan McCollum's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Sean Murphy-Bunting::CB", "playerName": "Sean Murphy-Bunting", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.9, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sean Murphy-Bunting's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Sebastian Joseph-Day::DT", "playerName": "Sebastian Joseph-Day", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sebastian Joseph-Day's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Spencer Anderson::RG", "playerName": "Spencer Anderson", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 76.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Spencer Anderson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::T.J. Watt::RDE", "playerName": "T.J. Watt", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.9, "high": 94.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "T.J. Watt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Terell Smith::CB", "playerName": "Terell Smith", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Terell Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Travis Homer::RB", "playerName": "Travis Homer", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 50, "high": 84.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5068, "expectedUsage": 0.4729, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 23, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.998, "reason": "23rd-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Travis Homer's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Troy Fautanu::LT", "playerName": "Troy Fautanu", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.8, "high": 90.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Troy Fautanu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Will Howard::QB", "playerName": "Will Howard", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68, "contextDelta": -0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5747, "expectedUsage": 0.5698, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 24, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9977, "reason": "24th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Will Howard's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Yahya Black::DT", "playerName": "Yahya Black", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 60.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 60.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.8, "high": 71.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Patrick Graham", "currentCoordinator": "Patrick Graham", "priorLead": "Teryl Austin", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Patrick Graham transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Yahya Black's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Pittsburgh Steelers::Zach Frazier::C", "playerName": "Zach Frazier", "teamName": "Pittsburgh Steelers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 87.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Mike McCarthy", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Angelichio", "priorLead": "Arthur Smith", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Mike McCarthy transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Zach Frazier's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Ashtyn Davis::S", "playerName": "Ashtyn Davis", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.9, "high": 77.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ashtyn Davis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Brandin Cooks::WR", "playerName": "Brandin Cooks", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59.6, "high": 80.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.237, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Brandin Cooks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Brayden Willis::TE", "playerName": "Brayden Willis", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 75.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1232, "expectedUsage": 0.1232, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Brayden Willis's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Brock Purdy::QB", "playerName": "Brock Purdy", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 85.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 85.3, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 78.9, "high": 91.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5441, "expectedUsage": 0.5441, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Brock Purdy's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Carver Willis::OL", "playerName": "Carver Willis", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Carver Willis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Christian McCaffrey::RB", "playerName": "Christian McCaffrey", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": -4.6, "planningRange": { "low": 59.2, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5156, "expectedUsage": 0.5156, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": true, "state": "REPORTED_MANAGED", "multiplier": 0.94, "floorMultiplier": 0.88, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "San Francisco's stated plan covers the 2026 workload, so the season board uses a conservative six-percent opportunity reduction while Week 1 retains the more cautious 90-percent game baseline.", "sources": [ { "id": "ap-cmc-workload-2026-06-09", "publisher": "Associated Press via CBS News", "publishedAt": "2026-06-09T20:58:00Z", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/49ers-2026-christian-mccaffrey-load-management/", "supports": "The coaching staff said it intends to reduce the workload and give the young backs more opportunities." }, { "id": "sf49ers-camp-day-16-2026-08-23", "publisher": "San Francisco 49ers", "publishedAt": "2026-08-23T19:54:00-07:00", "url": "https://www.49ers.com/news/day-16-of-2026-training-camp-george-kittle-s-remarkable-return", "supports": "McCaffrey described his extended camp break and return as a planned workload-management ramp." }, { "id": "sf49ers-initial-roster-2026-08-30", "publisher": "San Francisco 49ers", "publishedAt": "2026-08-30T16:00:00-07:00", "url": "https://www.49ers.com/news/position-by-position-breakdown-of-the-49ers-2026-initial-roster", "supports": "Jordan James and Kaelon Black are the active-roster backs behind McCaffrey." } ] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment.", "Verified season workload planning applies 94% of the unrestricted opportunity baseline." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Christian McCaffrey's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Colton McKivitz::RT", "playerName": "Colton McKivitz", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.5, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Colton McKivitz's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Connor Colby::LG", "playerName": "Connor Colby", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 82.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Connor Colby's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Corliss Waitman::P", "playerName": "Corliss Waitman", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.5, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Corliss Waitman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Deebo Samuel Sr.::WR2", "playerName": "Deebo Samuel Sr.", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 61.1, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.237, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Deebo Samuel Sr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Deommodore Lenoir::CB2", "playerName": "Deommodore Lenoir", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.2, "high": 89.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Deommodore Lenoir's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Dominick Puni::RG", "playerName": "Dominick Puni", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.4, "high": 85.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dominick Puni's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Dre Greenlaw::LOLB", "playerName": "Dre Greenlaw", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.6, "high": 81 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dre Greenlaw's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Eddy Pineiro::K", "playerName": "Eddy Pineiro", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.4, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Eddy Pineiro's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Enrique Cruz::OL", "playerName": "Enrique Cruz", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 78.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Enrique Cruz's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Ephesians Prysock::CB", "playerName": "Ephesians Prysock", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.8, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ephesians Prysock's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Fred Warner::MLB", "playerName": "Fred Warner", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.8, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Fred Warner's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Garret Wallow::ROLB", "playerName": "Garret Wallow", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Garret Wallow's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::George Kittle::TE", "playerName": "George Kittle", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 72.6, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1232, "expectedUsage": 0.1232, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "George Kittle's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Gracen Halton::DT2", "playerName": "Gracen Halton", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.4, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Gracen Halton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jack Jones::CB", "playerName": "Jack Jones", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.8, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jack Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jacob Cowing::WR3", "playerName": "Jacob Cowing", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 63, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.237, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jacob Cowing's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jaden Dugger::LB", "playerName": "Jaden Dugger", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaden Dugger's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jake Brendel::C", "playerName": "Jake Brendel", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jake Brendel's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::James Thompson Jr.::DT", "playerName": "James Thompson Jr.", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "James Thompson Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jarrett Patterson::OL", "playerName": "Jarrett Patterson", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.8, "high": 75.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jarrett Patterson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Ji'Ayir Brown::FS", "playerName": "Ji'Ayir Brown", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 81.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ji'Ayir Brown's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jon Weeks::LS", "playerName": "Jon Weeks", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.7, "high": 78.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jon Weeks's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jordan James::RB", "playerName": "Jordan James", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.7, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5156, "expectedUsage": 0.5156, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jordan James's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Jordan Watkins::WR4", "playerName": "Jordan Watkins", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.8, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57.7, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.237, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jordan Watkins's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Kaelon Black::RB", "playerName": "Kaelon Black", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.4, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5156, "expectedUsage": 0.5156, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Kaelon Black's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Keion White::RDE", "playerName": "Keion White", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.6, "high": 72 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keion White's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Khalid Kareem::EDGE", "playerName": "Khalid Kareem", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 72.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Khalid Kareem's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Kurtis Rourke::QB", "playerName": "Kurtis Rourke", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57.2, "high": 75.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5441, "expectedUsage": 0.5441, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Kurtis Rourke's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Kyle Juszczyk::FB", "playerName": "Kyle Juszczyk", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 89.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Kyle Juszczyk's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Luke Farrell::TE", "playerName": "Luke Farrell", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 57.6, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1232, "expectedUsage": 0.1232, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Luke Farrell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Luke Gifford::LB", "playerName": "Luke Gifford", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Luke Gifford's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Mac Jones::QB", "playerName": "Mac Jones", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 68.6, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5441, "expectedUsage": 0.5441, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Mac Jones's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Malik Mustapha::SS", "playerName": "Malik Mustapha", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.1, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Malik Mustapha's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Marques Sigle::S", "playerName": "Marques Sigle", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Marques Sigle's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Mike Evans::WR1", "playerName": "Mike Evans", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.2, "contextDelta": 0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 70.5, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.237, "expectedUsage": 0.237, "profileConfidence": "HIGH", "reason": "Play caller is unchanged; last season's usage is already embedded in the player forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 14, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0012, "reason": "14th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Mike Evans's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Naquan Jones::DT", "playerName": "Naquan Jones", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Naquan Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Nick Bosa::LDE", "playerName": "Nick Bosa", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.5, "high": 91.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Bosa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Osa Odighizuwa::DT1", "playerName": "Osa Odighizuwa", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 84.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.6, "high": 92.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Osa Odighizuwa's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Renardo Green::CB1", "playerName": "Renardo Green", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Renardo Green's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Romello Height::EDGE", "playerName": "Romello Height", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Romello Height's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Sebastian Valdez::DT", "playerName": "Sebastian Valdez", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.1, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sebastian Valdez's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Siran Neal::CB", "playerName": "Siran Neal", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Siran Neal's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Tatum Bethune::RILB", "playerName": "Tatum Bethune", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tatum Bethune's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Trent Williams::LT", "playerName": "Trent Williams", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 90.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 90.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 81.1, "high": 99.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Trent Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Upton Stout::NB", "playerName": "Upton Stout", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Raheem Morris", "currentCoordinator": "Raheem Morris", "priorLead": "Robert Saleh", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Raheem Morris transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Upton Stout's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "San Francisco 49ers::Vederian Lowe::OL", "playerName": "Vederian Lowe", "teamName": "San Francisco 49ers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.3, "high": 76.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "currentCoordinator": "Klay Kubiak", "priorLead": "Kyle Shanahan", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Vederian Lowe's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Abraham Lucas::RT", "playerName": "Abraham Lucas", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.9, "high": 91.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Abraham Lucas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::AJ Barner::TE", "playerName": "AJ Barner", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 65.5, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1032, "expectedUsage": 0.1032, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "AJ Barner's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Avery Smith::CB", "playerName": "Avery Smith", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Avery Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Beau Stephens::OL", "playerName": "Beau Stephens", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Beau Stephens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Brady Russell::FB", "playerName": "Brady Russell", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "FB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "fb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, personnel grouping, blocking assignment, and route deployment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "personnel package role", "active roster status", "verified touch plan" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "personnel grouping", "short-yardage plan", "opponent front", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "package availability", "blocking assignment changes", "backfield injuries" ], "validationReason": "Public data does not yet support a stable player-level fullback coaching adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Brady Russell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Brandon Pili::DT", "playerName": "Brandon Pili", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.7, "high": 76.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Brandon Pili's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Byron Murphy II::DT1", "playerName": "Byron Murphy II", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 84.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 84.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 77.4, "high": 91.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Byron Murphy II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Charles Cross::LT", "playerName": "Charles Cross", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.2, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Charles Cross's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Chazz Surratt::ROLB", "playerName": "Chazz Surratt", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.7, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Chazz Surratt's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Chris Stoll::LS", "playerName": "Chris Stoll", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike Macdonald", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Macdonald", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Chris Stoll's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Christian Haynes::RG", "playerName": "Christian Haynes", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 57.7, "high": 80.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Christian Haynes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Connor O'Toole::EDGE", "playerName": "Connor O'Toole", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.8, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Connor O'Toole's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Cooper Kupp::WR3", "playerName": "Cooper Kupp", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 79.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2935, "expectedUsage": 0.2935, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cooper Kupp's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Dante Fowler Jr.::EDGE", "playerName": "Dante Fowler Jr.", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.8, "high": 82 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dante Fowler Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::DeMarcus Lawrence::LDE", "playerName": "DeMarcus Lawrence", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.5, "high": 89.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DeMarcus Lawrence's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Derick Hall::EDGE", "playerName": "Derick Hall", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Derick Hall's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Devon Witherspoon::CB1", "playerName": "Devon Witherspoon", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70.3, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Devon Witherspoon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Drake Thomas::LOLB", "playerName": "Drake Thomas", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.8, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Drake Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Drew Lock::QB", "playerName": "Drew Lock", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 64.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.7, "high": 74.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4868, "expectedUsage": 0.4868, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Drew Lock's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Elijah Arroyo::TE", "playerName": "Elijah Arroyo", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1032, "expectedUsage": 0.1032, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Elijah Arroyo's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Emanuel Wilson::RB", "playerName": "Emanuel Wilson", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.5, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.504, "expectedUsage": 0.504, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.003, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Emanuel Wilson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Eric Saubert::TE", "playerName": "Eric Saubert", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.7, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1032, "expectedUsage": 0.1032, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Eric Saubert's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Ernest Jones IV::RILB", "playerName": "Ernest Jones IV", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 82.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 75.5, "high": 89.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ernest Jones IV's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::George Holani::RB", "playerName": "George Holani", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.5, "high": 85.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.504, "expectedUsage": 0.504, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.003, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "George Holani's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Grey Zabel::LG", "playerName": "Grey Zabel", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Grey Zabel's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Jalen Milroe::QB", "playerName": "Jalen Milroe", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.5, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 58.8, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4868, "expectedUsage": 0.4868, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jalen Milroe's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Jalen Sundell::C", "playerName": "Jalen Sundell", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.7, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Jalen Sundell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Jarran Reed::DT", "playerName": "Jarran Reed", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.1, "high": 77.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jarran Reed's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Jason Myers::K", "playerName": "Jason Myers", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.6, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike Macdonald", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Macdonald", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Jason Myers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Jaxon Smith-Njigba::WR1", "playerName": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 86.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 86.7, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 77.7, "high": 95.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2935, "expectedUsage": 0.2935, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jaxon Smith-Njigba's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Josh Jobe::CB2", "playerName": "Josh Jobe", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josh Jobe's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Josh Jones::OL", "playerName": "Josh Jones", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.9, "high": 73.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Josh Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Julian Love::FS", "playerName": "Julian Love", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.3, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Julian Love's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Julian Neal::CB", "playerName": "Julian Neal", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Julian Neal's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Leonard Williams::DT2", "playerName": "Leonard Williams", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 90.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 90.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 83.8, "high": 97.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Leonard Williams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Michael Dickson::P", "playerName": "Michael Dickson", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.7, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Mike Macdonald", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Mike Macdonald", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Michael Dickson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Mike Morris::DT", "playerName": "Mike Morris", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mike Morris's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Montorie Foster Jr.::WR4", "playerName": "Montorie Foster Jr.", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.9, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 53.7, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2935, "expectedUsage": 0.2935, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Montorie Foster Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Nehemiah Pritchett::NB", "playerName": "Nehemiah Pritchett", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 81.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nehemiah Pritchett's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Nick Emmanwori::S", "playerName": "Nick Emmanwori", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.3, "high": 86.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Emmanwori's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Nick Kallerup::TE", "playerName": "Nick Kallerup", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1032, "expectedUsage": 0.1032, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Nick Kallerup's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Olu Oluwatimi::OL", "playerName": "Olu Oluwatimi", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54, "high": 80.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Olu Oluwatimi's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Patrick O'Connell::LB", "playerName": "Patrick O'Connell", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.2, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Patrick O'Connell's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Rashid Shaheed::WR2", "playerName": "Rashid Shaheed", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 57.2, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2935, "expectedUsage": 0.2935, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rashid Shaheed's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Robert Henry Jr.::RB", "playerName": "Robert Henry Jr.", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 49.7, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.504, "expectedUsage": 0.504, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.003, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Robert Henry Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Rodney Thomas::S", "playerName": "Rodney Thomas", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 84.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rodney Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Rylie Mills::DT", "playerName": "Rylie Mills", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 78.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rylie Mills's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Sam Darnold::QB", "playerName": "Sam Darnold", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.2, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 86.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Doubtful", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Doubtful in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4868, "expectedUsage": 0.4868, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Doubtful in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Sam Darnold's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Tory Horton::WR", "playerName": "Tory Horton", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextDelta": 0.3, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2935, "expectedUsage": 0.2935, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0037, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.4% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Tory Horton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Ty Okada::SS", "playerName": "Ty Okada", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ty Okada's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Tyrice Knight::MLB", "playerName": "Tyrice Knight", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 74, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.6, "high": 81.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyrice Knight's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Uchenna Nwosu::RDE", "playerName": "Uchenna Nwosu", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.5, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Aden Durde", "currentCoordinator": "Aden Durde", "priorLead": "Aden Durde", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Uchenna Nwosu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Seattle Seahawks::Velus Jones Jr.::RB", "playerName": "Velus Jones Jr.", "teamName": "Seattle Seahawks", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Fleury", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Fleury", "priorLead": "Klint Kubiak", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.504, "expectedUsage": 0.504, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 5, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.003, "reason": "5th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Fleury transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Velus Jones Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::A'Shawn Robinson::DT2", "playerName": "A'Shawn Robinson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.3, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "A'Shawn Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Al-Quadin Muhammad::EDGE", "playerName": "Al-Quadin Muhammad", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 78.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Al-Quadin Muhammad's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Alex Anzalone::MLB", "playerName": "Alex Anzalone", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.9, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alex Anzalone's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Anthony Nelson::EDGE", "playerName": "Anthony Nelson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.4, "high": 77.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Anthony Nelson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Antoine Winfield Jr.::FS", "playerName": "Antoine Winfield Jr.", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 83.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.3, "high": 93.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Antoine Winfield Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Ayden Garnes::CB", "playerName": "Ayden Garnes", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.3, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ayden Garnes's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Baker Mayfield::QB", "playerName": "Baker Mayfield", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 71.2, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5417, "expectedUsage": 0.5399, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Baker Mayfield's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Bauer Sharp::TE", "playerName": "Bauer Sharp", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.8, "contextDelta": 2.7, "planningRange": { "low": 59.3, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0362, "baselineUsage": 0.0835, "expectedUsage": 0.0997, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 3.6%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Bauer Sharp's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Ben Bredeson::LG", "playerName": "Ben Bredeson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.7, "high": 79.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Ben Bredeson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Benjamin Chukwuma::OL", "playerName": "Benjamin Chukwuma", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.6, "high": 78.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Benjamin Chukwuma's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Benjamin Morrison::NB", "playerName": "Benjamin Morrison", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 76.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Benjamin Morrison's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Billy Schrauth::OL", "playerName": "Billy Schrauth", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.3, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Billy Schrauth's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Bucky Irving::RB", "playerName": "Bucky Irving", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.3, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4748, "expectedUsage": 0.4858, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0032, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Bucky Irving's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Cade Otton::TE", "playerName": "Cade Otton", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 2.6, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0362, "baselineUsage": 0.0835, "expectedUsage": 0.0997, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 3.6%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cade Otton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Calijah Kancey::DT", "playerName": "Calijah Kancey", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.4, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Calijah Kancey's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Chase McLaughlin::K", "playerName": "Chase McLaughlin", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.8, "high": 85.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Todd Bowles", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Chase McLaughlin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Chris Godwin Jr.::WR2", "playerName": "Chris Godwin Jr.", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.7, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 67.8, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3524, "expectedUsage": 0.3255, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chris Godwin Jr.'s production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Christian Rozeboom::LOLB", "playerName": "Christian Rozeboom", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.2, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Christian Rozeboom's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Cody Mauch::RG", "playerName": "Cody Mauch", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.9, "high": 87.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Cody Mauch's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Dan Feeney::OL", "playerName": "Dan Feeney", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.2, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dan Feeney's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::David Walker::EDGE", "playerName": "David Walker", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.8, "high": 81.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "David Walker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::DeMonte Capehart::DT", "playerName": "DeMonte Capehart", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.6, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "DeMonte Capehart's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Elijah Roberts::EDGE", "playerName": "Elijah Roberts", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 71.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Roberts's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Elijah Simmons::DT", "playerName": "Elijah Simmons", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.8, "high": 73.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Elijah Simmons's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Emeka Egbuka::WR1", "playerName": "Emeka Egbuka", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 55.9, "high": 74.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3524, "expectedUsage": 0.3255, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Emeka Egbuka's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Evan Deckers::LS", "playerName": "Evan Deckers", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 77.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Todd Bowles", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Evan Deckers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Graham Barton::C", "playerName": "Graham Barton", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.4, "high": 87.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Graham Barton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Ifeatu Melifonwu::S", "playerName": "Ifeatu Melifonwu", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.2, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Ifeatu Melifonwu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Jacob Parrish::CB2", "playerName": "Jacob Parrish", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jacob Parrish's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Jalon Daniels::QB", "playerName": "Jalon Daniels", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.5417, "expectedUsage": 0.5399, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jalon Daniels's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Josiah Trotter::ROLB", "playerName": "Josiah Trotter", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Josiah Trotter's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Justin Skule::OL", "playerName": "Justin Skule", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 49.4, "high": 75.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Justin Skule's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kameron Johnson::WR", "playerName": "Kameron Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 54.1, "high": 80.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3524, "expectedUsage": 0.3255, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kameron Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Keionte Scott::CB", "playerName": "Keionte Scott", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55, "high": 81.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keionte Scott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kenny Gainwell::RB", "playerName": "Kenny Gainwell", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 63.5, "high": 85.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4748, "expectedUsage": 0.4858, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0032, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kenny Gainwell's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Kevin Knowles::CB", "playerName": "Kevin Knowles", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kevin Knowles's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Ko Kieft::FB", "playerName": "Ko Kieft", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77, "contextDelta": 2.9, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 90 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0362, "baselineUsage": 0.0835, "expectedUsage": 0.0997, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 3.6%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ko Kieft's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Luke Goedeke::RT", "playerName": "Luke Goedeke", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.4, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Luke Goedeke's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Luke Haggard::OL", "playerName": "Luke Haggard", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.7, "high": 78.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Luke Haggard's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Miles Killebrew::S", "playerName": "Miles Killebrew", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.5, "high": 80.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Miles Killebrew's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Payne Durham::TE", "playerName": "Payne Durham", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 2.6, "planningRange": { "low": 58.3, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 1.0362, "baselineUsage": 0.0835, "expectedUsage": 0.0997, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage raises the season production index by 3.6%.", "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Payne Durham's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Rakeem Nunez-Roches::DT", "playerName": "Rakeem Nunez-Roches", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rakeem Nunez-Roches's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Riley Dixon::P", "playerName": "Riley Dixon", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.1, "high": 79.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Todd Bowles", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Riley Dixon's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Rueben Bain Jr.::RDE", "playerName": "Rueben Bain Jr.", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65.2, "high": 87.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rueben Bain Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Sean Tucker::RB", "playerName": "Sean Tucker", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 86 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4748, "expectedUsage": 0.4858, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 4, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0032, "reason": "4th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Sean Tucker's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::SirVocea Dennis::RILB", "playerName": "SirVocea Dennis", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.4, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "SirVocea Dennis's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Ted Hurst III::WR4", "playerName": "Ted Hurst III", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.2, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 58.9, "high": 83.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3524, "expectedUsage": 0.3255, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ted Hurst III's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Tez Johnson::WR3", "playerName": "Tez Johnson", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.1, "contextDelta": 0.2, "planningRange": { "low": 62.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3524, "expectedUsage": 0.3255, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 6, "label": "Favorable", "multiplier": 1.0026, "reason": "6th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.3% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tez Johnson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Tristan Wirfs::LT", "playerName": "Tristan Wirfs", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 92.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 92.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 81.7, "high": 100 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Zac Robinson", "currentCoordinator": "Zac Robinson", "priorLead": "Josh Grizzard", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Zac Robinson transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tristan Wirfs's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Tykee Smith::SS", "playerName": "Tykee Smith", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 70, "high": 88.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tykee Smith's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Vita Vea::DT1", "playerName": "Vita Vea", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 83.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 83.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.8, "high": 91.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Vita Vea's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Yaya Diaby::LDE", "playerName": "Yaya Diaby", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 74.5, "high": 90.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Yaya Diaby's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers::Zyon McCollum::CB1", "playerName": "Zyon McCollum", "teamName": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.7, "high": 84.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Todd Bowles", "currentCoordinator": "Todd Bowles", "priorLead": "Larry Foote & Charlie Strong", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Todd Bowles transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Zyon McCollum's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Alontae Taylor::CB2", "playerName": "Alontae Taylor", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.6, "high": 87.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Alontae Taylor's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Amani Hooker::SS", "playerName": "Amani Hooker", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.4, "high": 86.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Amani Hooker's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Anthony Hill Jr.::LOLB", "playerName": "Anthony Hill Jr.", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.2, "high": 93.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Anthony Hill Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Atonio Mafi::OL", "playerName": "Atonio Mafi", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Atonio Mafi's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Austin Schlottmann::C", "playerName": "Austin Schlottmann", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.9, "high": 87.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Austin Schlottmann's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson::OL", "playerName": "Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Calvin Ridley::WR3", "playerName": "Calvin Ridley", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 83.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3122, "expectedUsage": 0.3298, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Calvin Ridley's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Cam Ward::QB", "playerName": "Cam Ward", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.9, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 58.1, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.6013, "expectedUsage": 0.5824, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Cam Ward's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Carnell Tate::WR1", "playerName": "Carnell Tate", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 66.9, "high": 89.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3122, "expectedUsage": 0.3298, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Carnell Tate's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Cedric Gray::RILB", "playerName": "Cedric Gray", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.6, "high": 92.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cedric Gray's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Chimere Dike::WR4", "playerName": "Chimere Dike", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 53.8, "high": 77 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3122, "expectedUsage": 0.3298, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Chimere Dike's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Cody Barton::MLB", "playerName": "Cody Barton", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cody Barton's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Cor'Dale Flott::CB1", "playerName": "Cor'Dale Flott", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.5, "high": 90.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Cor'Dale Flott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Dan Moore Jr.::LT", "playerName": "Dan Moore Jr.", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.3, "high": 87.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Dan Moore Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Daniel Bellinger::TE", "playerName": "Daniel Bellinger", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": -3, "planningRange": { "low": 60.4, "high": 84.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9613, "baselineUsage": 0.1477, "expectedUsage": 0.1212, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 3.9%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Daniel Bellinger's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::David Martin-Robinson::TE", "playerName": "David Martin-Robinson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.6, "contextDelta": -2.7, "planningRange": { "low": 49.2, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9613, "baselineUsage": 0.1477, "expectedUsage": 0.1212, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 3.9%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "David Martin-Robinson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Elic Ayomanor::WR", "playerName": "Elic Ayomanor", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 63.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.2, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 74.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3122, "expectedUsage": 0.3298, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Elic Ayomanor's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Erick Hallett::S", "playerName": "Erick Hallett", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Erick Hallett's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Garrett Dellinger::OL", "playerName": "Garrett Dellinger", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53, "high": 85.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Garrett Dellinger's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Gunnar Helm::TE", "playerName": "Gunnar Helm", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.6, "contextDelta": -2.7, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 76.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9613, "baselineUsage": 0.1477, "expectedUsage": 0.1212, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 3.9%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Gunnar Helm's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Jackie Marshall::DT", "playerName": "Jackie Marshall", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jackie Marshall's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Jacob Martin::LDE", "playerName": "Jacob Martin", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.9, "high": 76.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jacob Martin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::James Hudson::OL", "playerName": "James Hudson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 59.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 59.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 47.1, "high": 72.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "James Hudson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::James Williams Sr.::ROLB", "playerName": "James Williams Sr.", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.9, "high": 88.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "James Williams Sr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Jaylon Jones::CB", "playerName": "Jaylon Jones", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.5, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jaylon Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::JC Latham::RT", "playerName": "JC Latham", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "JC Latham's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Jeffery Simmons::DT1", "playerName": "Jeffery Simmons", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 92.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 92.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 82.1, "high": 100 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jeffery Simmons's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Jermaine Johnson II::RDE", "playerName": "Jermaine Johnson II", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 85.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jermaine Johnson II's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Joey Slye::K", "playerName": "Joey Slye", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Robert Saleh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Robert Saleh transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Joey Slye's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::John Franklin-Myers::DT2", "playerName": "John Franklin-Myers", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 82.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "John Franklin-Myers's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Jordan Elliott::DT", "playerName": "Jordan Elliott", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 62.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 62.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.7, "high": 72.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jordan Elliott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Julius Chestnut::RB", "playerName": "Julius Chestnut", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.1, "high": 82.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9993, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Julius Chestnut's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Keldric Faulk::EDGE", "playerName": "Keldric Faulk", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60, "high": 85 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Keldric Faulk's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Kevin Winston Jr.::FS", "playerName": "Kevin Winston Jr.", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 80.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 80.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.4, "high": 92 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kevin Winston Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Kylen Granson::FB", "playerName": "Kylen Granson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.2, "contextDelta": -2.9, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 81.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": true, "multiplier": 0.9613, "baselineUsage": 0.1477, "expectedUsage": 0.1212, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "Changed-caller TE opportunity improved team usage and retained-player PPR MAE in every available walk-forward fold; the bounded downstream production adjustment is active." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Validated play-caller usage reduces the season production index by 3.9%.", "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Kylen Granson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Marcus Harris::NB", "playerName": "Marcus Harris", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.2, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Marcus Harris's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Micah Robinson::CB", "playerName": "Micah Robinson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52.1, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Micah Robinson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Michael Carter::RB", "playerName": "Michael Carter", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.7, "high": 86.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9993, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Michael Carter's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Mitchell Trubisky::QB", "playerName": "Mitchell Trubisky", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 68.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.3, "high": 80.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.6013, "expectedUsage": 0.5824, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The QB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Mitchell Trubisky's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Morgan Cox::LS", "playerName": "Morgan Cox", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 50.4, "high": 79.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Robert Saleh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Robert Saleh transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Morgan Cox's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Nazir Stackhouse::DT", "playerName": "Nazir Stackhouse", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.1, "high": 77.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nazir Stackhouse's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Nicholas Singleton::RB", "playerName": "Nicholas Singleton", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.9, "high": 83.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9993, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Nicholas Singleton's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Oluwafemi Oladejo::EDGE", "playerName": "Oluwafemi Oladejo", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Oluwafemi Oladejo's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Pat Coogan::RG", "playerName": "Pat Coogan", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.5, "high": 84.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Pat Coogan's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Peter Skoronski::LG", "playerName": "Peter Skoronski", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 83 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Peter Skoronski's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Solomon Thomas::DT", "playerName": "Solomon Thomas", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58, "high": 79 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Solomon Thomas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Terrell Burgess::S", "playerName": "Terrell Burgess", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.7, "high": 87.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Terrell Burgess's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Tommy Townsend::P", "playerName": "Tommy Townsend", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Robert Saleh", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "changed", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Robert Saleh transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tommy Townsend's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Tony Adams::S", "playerName": "Tony Adams", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.2, "high": 82.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tony Adams's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Tony Pollard::RB", "playerName": "Tony Pollard", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.9, "high": 76.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9993, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tony Pollard's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Truman Jones::EDGE", "playerName": "Truman Jones", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.5, "high": 84.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Gus Bradley", "currentCoordinator": "Gus Bradley", "priorLead": "Dennard Wilson", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Gus Bradley transition carries high uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Truman Jones's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Tyjae Spears::RB", "playerName": "Tyjae Spears", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4441, "expectedUsage": 0.4358, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The RB caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 18, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9993, "reason": "18th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.1% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Tyjae Spears's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Tennessee Titans::Wan'Dale Robinson::WR2", "playerName": "Wan'Dale Robinson", "teamName": "Tennessee Titans", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.4, "contextDelta": -0.1, "planningRange": { "low": 56.8, "high": 78 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "Brian Daboll", "currentCoordinator": "Brian Daboll", "priorLead": "Brian Callahan", "transition": "full-reset", "uncertainty": "high", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.3122, "expectedUsage": 0.3298, "profileConfidence": "MEDIUM", "reason": "The WR caller-usage challenger did not clear the player-level production gate; the signal is published as context with zero central impact." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 19, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 0.9984, "reason": "19th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a -0.2% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Brian Daboll transition carries high uncertainty." ], "summary": "Wan'Dale Robinson's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Amik Robertson::CB1", "playerName": "Amik Robertson", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 55.5, "high": 75.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Amik Robertson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Andrew Wylie::OL", "playerName": "Andrew Wylie", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.3, "high": 77.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Andrew Wylie's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Antonio Williams::WR", "playerName": "Antonio Williams", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2865, "expectedUsage": 0.2865, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Antonio Williams's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Athan Kaliakmanis::QB", "playerName": "Athan Kaliakmanis", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.8, "high": 76.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4921, "expectedUsage": 0.4921, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Athan Kaliakmanis's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Austin Ekeler::RB", "playerName": "Austin Ekeler", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 89.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4197, "expectedUsage": 0.4197, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0001, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Austin Ekeler's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Ben Sinnott::TE", "playerName": "Ben Sinnott", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.1, "high": 84.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1091, "expectedUsage": 0.1091, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Ben Sinnott's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Brandon Coleman::LT", "playerName": "Brandon Coleman", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.9, "high": 85.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Brandon Coleman's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Charles Omenihu::EDGE", "playerName": "Charles Omenihu", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 64.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 54.2, "high": 74.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Charles Omenihu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Chig Okonkwo::TE", "playerName": "Chig Okonkwo", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.9, "high": 82.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1091, "expectedUsage": 0.1091, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." ], "summary": "Chig Okonkwo's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Chris Paul::LG", "playerName": "Chris Paul", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 82.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Chris Paul's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Colson Yankoff::TE", "playerName": "Colson Yankoff", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 79.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1091, "expectedUsage": 0.1091, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Colson Yankoff's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Daron Payne::DT1", "playerName": "Daron Payne", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 68.4, "high": 89.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Daron Payne's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Dorance Armstrong::EDGE", "playerName": "Dorance Armstrong", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.3, "high": 87.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Dorance Armstrong's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Drew Stevens::K", "playerName": "Drew Stevens", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "K", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.4, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "k-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense scoring environment, venue, and field-goal opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team scoring projection", "job security", "coach decision policy", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "team total", "red-zone stall rate", "wind and precipitation", "surface", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Exact kicker ordering remains near baseline, so coaching context cannot create a precise central rank." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dan Quinn", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dan Quinn", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Drew Stevens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Dyami Brown::WR3", "playerName": "Dyami Brown", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.5, "high": 79.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2865, "expectedUsage": 0.2865, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Dyami Brown's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Fabian Moreau::CB", "playerName": "Fabian Moreau", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 73.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.2, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Fabian Moreau's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Frankie Luvu::MLB", "playerName": "Frankie Luvu", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.4, "high": 80.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Frankie Luvu's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Isaac Yiadom::CB", "playerName": "Isaac Yiadom", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.6, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Isaac Yiadom's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Jacory Croskey-Merritt::RB", "playerName": "Jacory Croskey-Merritt", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59, "high": 79.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4197, "expectedUsage": 0.4197, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0001, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jacory Croskey-Merritt's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Javon Kinlaw::DT2", "playerName": "Javon Kinlaw", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 63.4, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Javon Kinlaw's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Javontae Jean-Baptiste::EDGE", "playerName": "Javontae Jean-Baptiste", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 71, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.3, "high": 80.7 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Javontae Jean-Baptiste's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Jayden Daniels::QB", "playerName": "Jayden Daniels", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 78, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.4, "high": 86.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4921, "expectedUsage": 0.4921, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Jayden Daniels's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Jeremy Reaves::FS", "playerName": "Jeremy Reaves", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.4, "high": 86.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Jeremy Reaves's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::John Bates::FB", "playerName": "John Bates", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "TE", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 74.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 62.3, "high": 87.1 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "te-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route-versus-block assignment, target share, personnel rate, and red-zone usage", "coachingCentralGate": "VALIDATED", "seasonLevers": [ "validated play-caller TE usage", "position schedule", "route role", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent TE coverage", "linebacker and safety matchup", "route expectation", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "blocking-only deployment risk", "snap ramp", "target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "The bounded TE play-caller usage prior improved retained-player PPR error in every available walk-forward fold." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.1091, "expectedUsage": 0.1091, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled TE schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "John Bates's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Josh Conerly Jr.::RT", "playerName": "Josh Conerly Jr.", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 64.8, "high": 87 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Josh Conerly Jr.'s central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Joshua Josephs::LOLB", "playerName": "Joshua Josephs", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.4, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 83.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Joshua Josephs's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::K'Lavon Chaisson::RDE", "playerName": "K'Lavon Chaisson", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 77.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 77.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.4, "high": 87.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "K'Lavon Chaisson's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Kain Medrano::ROLB", "playerName": "Kain Medrano", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.2, "high": 83.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Kain Medrano's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Lucas Patrick::OL", "playerName": "Lucas Patrick", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 65.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 52, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Unknown", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Unknown in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Lucas Patrick's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Luke McCaffrey::WR", "playerName": "Luke McCaffrey", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.6, "high": 84 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2865, "expectedUsage": 0.2865, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Luke McCaffrey's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Marcus Mariota::QB", "playerName": "Marcus Mariota", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "QB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 76.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 67.8, "high": 84.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "qb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, pass rate, protection, designed rushes, and red-zone philosophy", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "team pass environment", "position schedule", "verified starter status", "designed-rush role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent pass defense", "pressure and protection", "projected pass rate", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "throwing or lower-body limitation", "starter certainty", "designed-rush restriction" ], "validationReason": "QB play-caller usage was tested, but improvement was not stable in every walk-forward fold, so it changes uncertainty rather than the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4921, "expectedUsage": 0.4921, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled QB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Marcus Mariota's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Matt Gulbin::OL", "playerName": "Matt Gulbin", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 56.5, "high": 81.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Matt Gulbin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Mike Sainristil::CB2", "playerName": "Mike Sainristil", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 69.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.3, "high": 79.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Mike Sainristil's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Nick Allegretti::C", "playerName": "Nick Allegretti", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 63.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 63.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.1, "high": 74.3 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Nick Allegretti's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Nick Cross::SS", "playerName": "Nick Cross", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 81.9, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.4, "high": 91.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Nick Cross's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Odafe Oweh::LDE", "playerName": "Odafe Oweh", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "EDGE", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 82.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 82.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 72.1, "high": 92.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "edge-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front, alignment, rush-plan role, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "alignment", "rush share", "rotation", "front structure" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing tackle and protection", "dropback volume", "time to throw", "chip rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "rush snap cap", "rotation change", "hand or lower-body limitation", "teammate pressure vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Coordinator identity is tracked, but player-level pressure and sack outcomes have not cleared a cutoff-safe DC transition test." }, "availability": { "state": "MONITOR", "label": "Questionable", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Questionable in the current roster snapshot. NFSMELL does not invent a medical workload reduction without attributable evidence.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Odafe Oweh's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Percy Butler::S", "playerName": "Percy Butler", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 72.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61, "high": 83.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Percy Butler's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Quan Martin::S", "playerName": "Quan Martin", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "S", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 70.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.6, "high": 80 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "s-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, shell, box rate, slot role, blitz usage, and deep responsibility", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "box-versus-deep role", "coverage shell", "slot participation", "blitz share" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent route distribution", "run rate", "tight-end usage", "deep-pass rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "alignment change", "snap restriction", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Safety roles are highly scheme-sensitive, but public assignment evidence has not cleared a DC transition gate." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Quan Martin's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Rachaad White::RB", "playerName": "Rachaad White", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "RB", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.7, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 65, "high": 86.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "rb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, run design, backfield rotation, target share, and goal-line usage", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified touch plan", "committee depth", "goal-line role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent run defense", "box environment", "projected score state", "target opportunity", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "touch cap", "managed workload", "return-to-play ramp", "active backup allocation" ], "validationReason": "RB play-caller usage was tested, but player-level gains were not stable in every fold. Verified workload receipts can still move opportunity directly." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.4197, "expectedUsage": 0.4197, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 15, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0001, "reason": "15th-easiest modeled RB schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Rachaad White's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Rasul Douglas::NB", "playerName": "Rasul Douglas", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.3, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.4, "high": 89.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Rasul Douglas's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Sam Cosmi::RG", "playerName": "Sam Cosmi", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 61.6, "high": 88.6 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Sam Cosmi's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Shy Tuttle::DT", "playerName": "Shy Tuttle", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.4, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Shy Tuttle's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Sonny Styles::RILB", "playerName": "Sonny Styles", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "LB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 67.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 58.2, "high": 76.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "lb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, base package, coverage assignment, blitz rate, and tackle opportunity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "every-down role", "package participation", "coverage-versus-rush assignment", "green-dot role" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent play volume", "run rate", "middle-field targets", "blitz assignment", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "sub-package role loss", "snap cap", "return ramp", "teammate tackle vacancy" ], "validationReason": "Public role assignment is not complete enough to convert a DC change into stable individual tackle or coverage production." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Sonny Styles's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Stefon Diggs::WR2", "playerName": "Stefon Diggs", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 75.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 66.7, "high": 84.9 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2865, "expectedUsage": 0.2865, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Stefon Diggs's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Tanoa Togiai::OL", "playerName": "Tanoa Togiai", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "OL", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SUPPORT", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.6, "high": 80.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ol-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, line coach, protection system, run concept, and assignment continuity", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "starter assignment", "unit continuity", "availability", "scheme fit" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent front", "pressure package", "run-front structure", "protection help", "game script" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "starter availability", "position switch", "snap limitation", "adjacent-line continuity" ], "validationReason": "Assignment-quality public coverage is too thin for a central coaching adjustment; the context remains explicit and uncertainty-only." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Play-caller identity and transition are tracked. This position has no validated central usage adjustment." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Assignment-level blocking or fullback usage is not inferred from a coaching title." ], "summary": "Tanoa Togiai's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Terry McLaurin::WR1", "playerName": "Terry McLaurin", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 79.1, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 79.1, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.8, "high": 88.4 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2865, "expectedUsage": 0.2865, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Terry McLaurin's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Tim Settle::DT", "playerName": "Tim Settle", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "DT", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 68.2, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 59.2, "high": 77.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "dt-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, front technique, interior rush role, run-fit responsibility, and rotation", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "technique and alignment", "pass-rush share", "run-down share", "rotation" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing interior line", "double-team environment", "dropback volume", "run rate", "score state" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap cap", "rotation change", "return ramp", "adjacent-line availability" ], "validationReason": "Interior role is position-specific, but DC transition has not yet earned a central player-production multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tim Settle's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Tress Way::P", "playerName": "Tress Way", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "P", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 78.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 78.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 69.8, "high": 87.2 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "p-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Head coach decision policy, offense field position, game script, and venue", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "team drive environment", "venue mix" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "expected drive outcomes", "score state", "wind", "field position" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "leg limitation", "replacement competition" ], "validationReason": "Punter ordering is experimental and receives no direct coaching multiplier." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dan Quinn", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dan Quinn", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tress Way's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Treylon Burks::WR4", "playerName": "Treylon Burks", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "WR", "group": "OFFENSIVE_SKILL", "status": "ADJUSTED", "baseProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 71.6, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 60.7, "high": 82.5 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "wr-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Offensive play caller, route participation, target hierarchy, formation, and motion", "coachingCentralGate": "TESTED_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "position schedule", "verified starting role", "route share", "target competition" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opponent coverage strength", "likely shadow coverage", "pressure-to-target effect", "score state", "weather" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "route restriction", "snap ramp", "lower-body limitation", "teammate target vacancy" ], "validationReason": "WR play-caller usage was tested and did not beat the player baseline consistently enough to move the central forecast." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "player-coaching-usage-v1", "role": "OFFENSIVE_PLAYCALLER", "currentLead": "David Blough", "currentCoordinator": "David Blough", "priorLead": "Kliff Kingsbury", "transition": "new-caller-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": 0.2865, "expectedUsage": 0.2865, "profileConfidence": "UNAVAILABLE", "reason": "No attributable NFL play-calling sample exists before 2026; the transition changes uncertainty but not the central forecast." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": true, "games": 17, "easeRank": 16, "label": "Neutral", "multiplier": 1.0002, "reason": "16th-easiest modeled WR schedule across 17 games; season effect is capped at three percent." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [ "Position schedule applies a 0.0% season adjustment." ], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "David Blough transition carries elevated uncertainty." ], "summary": "Treylon Burks's production outlook is adjusted by verified downstream context while OVR remains unchanged." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Tyler Ott::LS", "playerName": "Tyler Ott", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "LS", "group": "SPECIALIST", "status": "BASELINE", "baseProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 64.8, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 51.8, "high": 77.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "ls-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Special-teams operation, unit continuity, and active roster status", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "job security", "operation continuity", "availability" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "weather", "surface", "special-teams operation" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "active job status", "replacement operation" ], "validationReason": "Long-snapper value is modeled through availability and operation integrity rather than fantasy-style volume." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "HEAD_COACH", "currentLead": "Dan Quinn", "currentCoordinator": null, "priorLead": "Dan Quinn", "transition": "stable", "uncertainty": "standard", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Specialist opportunity depends on team scoring and game state; coaching identity is tracked but does not directly alter the player production index." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [], "summary": "Tyler Ott's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." }, { "modelVersion": "player-production-context-v1", "playerKey": "Washington Commanders::Tyler Owens::CB", "playerName": "Tyler Owens", "teamName": "Washington Commanders", "position": "CB", "group": "DEFENSE", "status": "MONITOR", "baseProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextAdjustedProductionForecast": 66.5, "contextDelta": 0, "planningRange": { "low": 53.2, "high": 79.8 }, "playerOvrUnchanged": true, "positionContext": { "contractId": "cb-production-context-v1", "coachingDriver": "Defensive coordinator, coverage family, man-zone mix, alignment, and matchup assignment", "coachingCentralGate": "RESEARCH_WITHHELD", "seasonLevers": [ "outside-slot alignment", "coverage family", "shadow role", "target deterrence" ], "weeklyMatchupLevers": [ "opposing receiver alignment", "target expectation", "route tree", "pass volume", "safety help" ], "injuryAndWorkloadLevers": [ "snap restriction", "alignment change", "secondary injuries", "return ramp" ], "validationReason": "Coverage responsibility and target causality remain too inferred for a direct DC-based central adjustment." }, "availability": { "state": "CLEAR", "label": "Healthy", "source": "current-roster", "detail": "No availability restriction is recorded in the current roster snapshot." }, "coaching": { "modelVersion": "coaching-context-v1", "role": "DEFENSIVE_COORDINATOR", "currentLead": "Daronte Jones", "currentCoordinator": "Daronte Jones", "priorLead": "Joe Whitt Jr.", "transition": "coordinator-change-retained-head-coach", "uncertainty": "elevated", "centralImpact": false, "multiplier": 1, "baselineUsage": null, "expectedUsage": null, "profileConfidence": null, "reason": "Defensive-coordinator and scheme transition are explicit production uncertainty. No central sack, tackle, coverage, or turnover adjustment is allowed until position-role outcomes clear walk-forward validation." }, "seasonSchedule": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-schedule-context-v1", "applies": false, "games": null, "easeRank": null, "label": "Not applied to this position", "multiplier": 1, "reason": "The current season-schedule model is validated only for QB, RB, WR, and TE production planning." }, "workload": { "modelVersion": "fantasy-workload-context-v2", "active": false, "state": "NO_ACTIVE_RECEIPT", "multiplier": 1, "floorMultiplier": 1, "ceilingMultiplier": 1, "reason": "No attributable season-long workload restriction is active.", "sources": [] }, "weeklyOpponentPolicy": "Opponent defense, opposing coordinator, likely score state, venue, weather, and final game designation are recomputed in the weekly projection. They do not rewrite player OVR or this season baseline.", "centralEffects": [], "uncertaintyEffects": [ "Daronte Jones transition carries elevated uncertainty.", "Opponent scheme, protection, alignment, and likely game script are applied only in weekly forecasts, not silently baked into player OVR." ], "summary": "Tyler Owens's central production outlook stays at the evidence-based baseline; tracked context affects uncertainty only." } ] }