{ "schema": 1, "registryVersion": "model-capabilities-v2", "statuses": [ "LIVE", "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "SHADOW", "DATA_PIPELINE_NEEDED", "RESEARCH_ONLY" ], "capabilities": [ { "id": "player-core", "title": "Current performance and separate player forecasts", "status": "LIVE", "productionImpact": "Qualified current-season player grades/ranks; separate forecast OVR and team value", "evidence": "player-performance-v18 supports position-relative current production. player-forecast-v41 supplies the separate evidence-shrunk forecast. Current percentiles are not injected into team strength as a second form overlay. These are not all-snap film grades or cross-position WAR.", "activationGate": "Already active; changes require time-ordered validation" }, { "id": "team-core", "title": "Availability-adjusted team power", "status": "LIVE", "productionImpact": "Team power and matchup inputs", "evidence": "team-strength-v39 combines canonical player team values, opponent-adjusted results and availability. Current player display scores remain separate; no sportsbook rank sets this ordering.", "activationGate": "Every new central effect requires time-ordered validation and a released receipt contract" }, { "id": "team-forward-season", "title": "Schedule-adjusted season simulation", "status": "LIVE", "productionImpact": "Expected regular-season wins and schedule-adjusted rank", "evidence": "season-wins-v1 uses released team-strength inputs and the complete schedule. Game-result variance is not a complete model-confidence interval.", "activationGate": "Ranges must remain labeled as game-result variance, not complete model-confidence intervals" }, { "id": "team-matchup-context", "title": "Game-specific matchup context", "status": "LIVE", "productionImpact": "Matchup projections and explanatory unit edges", "evidence": "Current roster, unit strength, venue, rest, availability, weather readiness, and bounded position-group comparisons", "activationGate": "Route, coverage, protection, and tracking-level interaction claims stay withheld until qualified data and holdout lift exist" }, { "id": "betting-market", "title": "Pregame market and betting receipts", "status": "LIVE", "productionImpact": "Bet/PASS decisions only after evidence gates", "evidence": "Book, line, price, timestamp, de-vigging, closing capture, settlement", "activationGate": "No market may publish without attributable pre-kickoff evidence" }, { "id": "fantasy-formats", "title": "Format-specific fantasy decisions", "status": "LIVE", "productionImpact": "Fantasy-only rankings and decision values", "evidence": "Format-specific fantasy decisions use current team-strength-v39 opponent pass/run inputs, workload, schedule and published role evidence. These are fantasy outputs, not replacement player talent grades.", "activationGate": "Fantasy output never rewrites player OVR" }, { "id": "player-production-context", "title": "Player production context", "status": "LIVE", "productionImpact": "Downstream season production and weekly fantasy decisions; zero player OVR or team-power impact", "evidence": "Attributable workload, coaching and schedule context supports downstream production. Current workload and line-clearing probabilities require separate chronological evaluation; coverage is not guaranteed for every profile.", "activationGate": "Every central effect must be source-attributed, cutoff-safe, position-specific, and improve held-out player production; otherwise it is uncertainty-only" }, { "id": "fantasy-trade", "title": "Week 1 player package comparison", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "Fantasy package comparison only", "evidence": "fantasy-trade-v2 uses zero-based value above replacement, heuristic package ranges, duplicate-player rejection, and replacement-level treatment of open roster slots", "activationGate": "Rest-of-season or dynasty market claims remain withheld until attributable market history and time-ordered validation exist" }, { "id": "coaching-context", "title": "Coaching continuity and scheme context", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "Descriptive context and uncertainty only", "evidence": "All-team HC, OC, play-caller, and DC transition registry", "activationGate": "Cutoff-safe ablation must improve held-out prediction" }, { "id": "contract-context", "title": "Verified player contract context", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "Receipt context only", "evidence": "Directly attributable incentive, option, and extension records", "activationGate": "Terms, progress, mechanism, and incremental lift must all validate" }, { "id": "fantasy-acquisition", "title": "Fantasy acquisition activity", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "Directional acquisition radar only", "evidence": "Timestamped Sleeper add/drop activity", "activationGate": "Activity counts are never treated as ownership or ADP" }, { "id": "team-shadows", "title": "Team challenger portfolio", "status": "SHADOW", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Production, reduced-DT, elite-offense, and combined frozen ledgers", "activationGate": "Predeclared prospective season scorecard" }, { "id": "assignment-intelligence", "title": "Reviewed play-assignment execution", "status": "DATA_PIPELINE_NEEDED", "productionImpact": "None without a published qualified evidence snapshot", "evidence": "Ingestion, canonical-play, independent-review, adjudication, and abstention infrastructure exists; no complete public all-snap corpus is published", "activationGate": "Qualified corpus plus untouched holdout lift" }, { "id": "role-velocity", "title": "Role Velocity and Role Acceleration", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Point-in-time ingestion, as-of queries, weekly nflverse offensive snap shares, structured-source gates, and explicit abstention", "activationGate": "Repeated timestamped route, snap, package, and valuable-touch observations" }, { "id": "fantasy-adp", "title": "Attributable fantasy ADP", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "Draft-cost context only; no grade or projection changes", "evidence": "Daily Fantasy Football Calculator mock-draft ADP, independently timestamped and matched by scoring, league size, team and player identity", "activationGate": "Fresh attributable 1QB redraft feed required; no superflex/dynasty substitution or automatic bargain claims" }, { "id": "injury-survival", "title": "Injury survival and workload restoration", "status": "SHADOW", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Forecast and settlement contract; current public adjustments remain sourced workload scenarios", "activationGate": "Time-ordered calibration, workload error, and stability tests" }, { "id": "verified-mobile-alerts", "title": "Owner and subscriber phone alerts", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "verified-alerts-v5, private-signals-v4, and subscriber-alerts-v1.2: durable retries, actionable owner notifications, five-minute league injury checks, preseason-only suppression across structured and verified-news availability alerts, material-change suppression, attributable material-news classification, week-aware immutable pick receipts, kickoff and retry expiry, owner ntfy delivery, consent-based browser push, and token-scoped device-state verification", "activationGate": "Owner alerts require a private webhook; visitor alerts require explicit browser permission and selected categories" }, { "id": "official-x-publishing", "title": "Official X account publishing", "status": "LIVE_ZERO_CORE_IMPACT", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "x-publisher-v3 uses X API v2 user-context authentication when funded, plus a zero-cost X Web Intent fallback that sends a deduplicated Post to X approval button through the private owner alert channel. Immutable source receipts, stale-pick expiry, verified team-update gates, and polished templates apply in both modes.", "activationGate": "Full unattended publishing requires official credentials, a positive daily cap, a positive monthly budget, and explicit autopublish enablement. Manual one-tap approval remains available at zero API cost." }, { "id": "expected-opportunity", "title": "Play-level expected opportunity", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Architecture defined; no calibrated route-level xTargets/xTD model", "activationGate": "Point-in-time route and play-design dataset plus held-out calibration" }, { "id": "fantasy-joint-simulation", "title": "Correlated fantasy game distributions", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Current production publishes point estimates and heuristic planning ranges, not Monte Carlo player quantiles or a joint game distribution", "activationGate": "Reconciled opportunity shares, correlated stat simulation, rolling-origin calibration, and empirical interval coverage" }, { "id": "team-process-sustainability", "title": "Team process and sustainability decomposition", "status": "DATA_PIPELINE_NEEDED", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Current prior-results input is opponent-adjusted points-based strength; a separate turnover, conversion, pressure, coverage, and regression dashboard is not live", "activationGate": "Cutoff-safe play and drive features, opponent adjustment, stability testing, and a public process-versus-results receipt" }, { "id": "special-teams-phases", "title": "Phase-level special-teams value", "status": "DATA_PIPELINE_NEEDED", "productionImpact": "None beyond the current coarse roster unit input", "evidence": "Kicker and punter player proxies are live, but field-goal, kickoff, punt, return, coverage, and operation EPA are not independently modeled", "activationGate": "Opportunity-adjusted phase data, weather and venue controls, and held-out team-forecast lift" }, { "id": "coaching-decision-value", "title": "Causal coaching and decision value", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Staff identity and transition uncertainty are live context; fourth-down, clock, sequencing, adjustment, and development value are not causal production grades", "activationGate": "Effective-date decisions, roster and opponent controls, partial pooling, and cutoff-safe ablation" }, { "id": "player-positional-value", "title": "Cross-position player value above replacement", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Current-team contribution is a roster-model input, not a standardized player WAR or contract-value metric", "activationGate": "Counterfactual replacement model, position conversion, uncertainty, and future team-outcome validation" }, { "id": "tracking-graphs", "title": "Tracking, matchup geometry, and interaction graphs", "status": "RESEARCH_ONLY", "productionImpact": "None", "evidence": "Research blueprint only", "activationGate": "Permitted tracking data, reproducible features, and independent validation" } ], "ratingSnapshotId": "player-forecast-v41:2026-10-10T00:29:53.005648+00:00" }